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Manchester United’s hopes of securing Champions League qualification through the Premier League are all but over. The club’s only realistic path back to Europe’s elite competition now rests on winning the Europa League.
After being eliminated from the FA Cup by Fulham, United may miss out on European football altogether next season. The last time United went a full campaign without European competition was 2014-15, and before that, it was 1989-90.
With United’s finances under scrutiny following years of heavy spending and underperformance, the revenue generated by playing in the Champions League is more vital than ever.
United’s 2023 renewal of their kit deal with Adidas, worth £90 million per year, includes a clause allowing the sportswear giant to deduct £10 million for every season the club fails to qualify for the Champions League.
This clause takes effect from the 2025-26 season, meaning that unless United win the Europa League, they will face a financial penalty next term.
Even more significant than sponsorship losses, however, is the impact on broadcasting and matchday revenues.
United’s annual reports illustrate the financial disparity between playing in the Champions League and missing out.
UEFA’s revamped Champions League format has increased the financial rewards on offer. This season, the total prize pool rose to €2.47 billion (£2.04 billion), up from €2.03 billion under the previous system.
Had United qualified for this season’s Champions League, they could have expected around €40 million from UEFA’s ‘value pillar’ payment system, plus an €18.6 million participation fee.
Each league-phase win brings an extra €2.1 million, with further payments for progressing through the tournament.
A deep run in the competition could be worth over €100 million, but even exiting in the group stage would likely generate between €50 and 60 million—far exceeding the rewards of the Europa League.
Despite Man United’s dreadful results, INEOS remains firmly behind Ruben Amorim, convinced by his long-term vision for the club. The Portuguese coach has said all the right things in his press conferences, recently declaring that his ultimate goal is to win the Premier League.
However, that ambition has yet to materialise on the pitch, with United struggling for consistency. There is hope that, given a full season and the opportunity to build his squad in the summer, Amorim’s ideas will take shape.
Champions League qualification would be a crucial factor in this rebuild, as top players are far more likely to be drawn to Old Trafford if European football’s biggest stage is on offer.
It would give Amorim a better chance of signing the players he truly wants, allowing him to mould a squad capable of executing his vision.
Featured image Carl Recine via Getty Images
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