How may the Seattle Seahawks presumably get any worse?
Vegas appears to assume they are going to, as do a scattering of media personalities that bought all excited concerning the Arizona Cardinals drafting 142 gamers in April.
The present Over/Underneath betting line for the Seahawks is 7.5 wins. They’re guaranteeing Seattle shall be worse than 2023, you’re simply meant to decide on by how a lot.
Even covert nationwide followers bailed on Seattle this Spring.
Colin Cowherd now says the Seahawks are “utterly below the radar” and will win 10 video games.
Per week into Seattle Seahawks coaching camp has given us continued intel on a number of parts of this 12 months’s roster, the teaching employees, and a few key indicators concerning the 2024 squad’s outlook.
There’s far an excessive amount of unknown to say loopy issues like “Seattle will catch the San Francisco 49ers and I simply guess the automobile on it.”
However some issues will be stated, and I say regression is unlikely, nay, unfathomable, for 3 causes.
1) Consideration to element
It’s all the things from taking down the basketball hoop to his newest “begin quick” quote, Mike Macdonald is simply not like Pete Carroll.
Hypothesis was that Macdonald was the consummate instructor, and that a lot of his employees is as properly. They had been rumored to be sensible, communication-oriented and detail-specific coaches, and that continues to be the reviews popping out of camp.
This stands out as a result of for years and years we’ve spent our time discussing whether or not Pete Carroll’s motivation and vibes and perception in gamers – which appeared to regularly hold guys out of hassle or get essentially the most out of them – outweighed the shortage of self-discipline and lack of in-game administration that unfolded on Sundays.
The Seahawks had been the fifth-most penalized crew final season, almost an identical in 2022. Pete Carroll’s latest groups have usually been the most important offenders by way of missed tackles, and the 4th-down and timeout conversations on this website alone may fill a e-book.
Now we are able to’t converse in any way as to whether Macdonald can reduce it by way of motivation and longevity of NFL athlete management, however if you hear him converse you possibly can inform that he’s not going to return to the rostrum for the sixth consecutive week and say “we simply didn’t execute.” They are going to work on this stuff, they are going to tackle this stuff.
Macdonald got here out in his second month and referred to as his star first-round select for needing to be in higher form to the general public. This isn’t a man who’s going to fiddle.
Jacson Bevens has a terrific clip from his podcast breaking down the advantage of being hyper-focused on the main points – specifically, it retains the gamers from “guessing.” Know your position; understand it properly, understand it inside and outside. This appears to be Macdonald’s philosophy via rookie, OTA, and coaching camps, and because it performs out I count on a stage of intentionality completely different than latest years.
2) The protection actually can’t be worse
Not hyperbole.
The crew was already close to or the precise worst within the league at third down protection, 1st downs allowed, run protection, and purple zone protection.
And so they nonetheless completed 9-8.
Having now introduced in one of the best defensive thoughts that was out there this offseason, who might find yourself proving to be among the best defensive coaches interval, these three marks appear unlikely to be repeated.
There’s nowhere to go however up with the protection, and chances are high extra possible that they’ll go manner up than merely move a crew or two.
If we add the eye to element to the various stress fronts that Macdonald was recognized for in Baltimore and continues to impress with in camp, we’re left with the probability of a essentially sound and well-disguised protection.
We….haven’t had that for some time.
It actually wasn’t the case final season. An enchancment in these two areas appears inevitable, whereas the roster actually isn’t worse on protection than 2023.
Write it in pen – Seattle won’t surrender extra factors than final season.
3) Geno Smith
Smith is essentially the most established “third-year starter” within the NFL. Just like the dialog concerning the protection, it’s a close to impossibility that Smith would inexplicably worsen.
Right here’s why.
The re-branded Geno Smith had someplace across the worst offensive line in soccer final season, but nonetheless produced at a top-half fee in many of the identical classes he did in 2022.
It’s laborious to oversell how dangerous the offensive line was final 12 months. Simply disasters all over the place as soon as Abe Lucas went down. Sharp Soccer Analytics had them twenty ninth, Ben Baldwin twenty ninth in move safety, PFF twenty eighth, and our pricey buddy Mike Clay says they’re the worst group in soccer this 12 months as properly.
Geno performed below a stress fee of virtually 41% final 12 months.
Anyone do not forget that Week 4 recreation towards the New York Giants once they had Daniel Jones working for his life the entire evening?
That stress fee from Seattle was 46%.
How this performs: The Seahawks line had the particular privilege of being so dangerous it could have lowered the standard ground of its beginning quarterback. We’ve gone in depth about how ridiculous Smith was at avoiding sacks final 12 months, however two factors to contemplate: (1) what if he didn’t have to do this? And (2) it (virtually) actually can’t worsen.
Enter Ryan Grubb and Scott Huff, two coaches with O-line expertise and in addition respected for his or her capability to show. Enter the reviews that Geno Smith has seemed higher than any Seattle QB has seemed in camp in an extended, very long time.
And take into consideration the very worst of Geno Smith, how he’s stored Seattle in almost each recreation the protection didn’t sabotage, after which take into consideration the easiest of Geno Smith, who went to the Professional Bowl and led the league in completion share.
Clearly it’s an extended season, and issues occur. However higher fundamentals (gamers and coaches), improved protection, and a secure quarterback are as near locks because it will get this season.
That could be a robust recipe for a crew to be regression-proof.
