Why the Seattle Seahawks gained’t commerce star receiver DK Metcalf

The tip of the primary offseason of the Mike Macdonald period for the Seattle Seahawks is rapidly approaching, with simply obligatory minicamp remaining forward of a 5 and a half week break earlier than coaching camp. That, in fact, implies that the slowest of gradual information seasons for the NFL is simply across the nook, however with a brand new teaching workers and new programs in place on either side of the ball there shall be a lot to debate.

With that in thoughts, one of many matters that may stay entrance and heart over the following yr or so is how the workforce ought to deal with the contract scenario of DK Metcalf. Many followers have already referred to as for the workforce to commerce Metcalf because of the $29.5M cap hit he’s set to hold through the 2025 season, despite the truth that he has been probably the most productive receivers within the historical past of the NFL via the primary 5 seasons of his profession.

Particularly, many followers are fast to level out that Metcalf’s present contract has him because the tenth highest paid wideout within the NFL, despite the fact that the one time he’s completed within the high ten within the NFL in receiving yards was through the no protection allowed 2020 COVID yr that noticed inflated offensive manufacturing throughout the league through the first half of the season. In his different 4 seasons Metcalf has completed thirty fourth (2019), twenty eighth (2021), sixteenth (2022) and 18th (2023) within the league in receiving yards, which has irked many followers hoping for the dominance of 2020 to repeat.

With that in thoughts, nevertheless, what Metcalf has completed is stay extremely constant, lacking only a single sport over the period of his NFL profession. That reality has allowed him to be the eleventh best receiver within the league through the 5 years he has been within the league, which means the following time a productive, younger receiver receives a brand new contract extension, Metcalf’s cap price shall be proper consistent with his manufacturing relative to different receivers within the league.

That, definitely, gained’t silence these calling for him to be traded, however the actuality is that almost all receivers drafted don’t produce wherever close to what Metcalf has supplied to this point in his profession. Even the extremely wanted first spherical large receivers don’t produce on the degree followers anticipate, as Sam Bruchhaus of Sumer Sports activities famous again in Might.

For individuals who suppose the careers of Nate Burleson (5,630 yards, 39 touchdowns) or Eric Decker (5,816 yards, 58 TD) aren’t price a primary spherical choose, the fact is that the median profession manufacturing for a primary spherical large receiver is round 4,000 yards and 25 touchdowns. These should not rookie contract manufacturing numbers, they’re for all the profession of the participant.

For comparability, Metcalf has already recorded 5,332 receiving yards and 43 touchdowns whereas nonetheless simply 26 years outdated. So, for many who wish to commerce Metcalf for a primary spherical choose, the fact is that even when the Seahawks rotated and used that first spherical choose to pick out a receiver, there’s a really excessive most likely they’d get much less manufacturing out of that receiver than they might out of Metcalf over the following 4 years.

At this level some are nearly sure to hurry to the feedback and argue that there’s a distinction between receivers taken earlier within the first spherical in comparison with these taken later within the first spherical, however the actuality is the median manufacturing is should not all that totally different.

Receivers chosen with picks 1-16: 4,500 yards & 28 touchdowns
Receivers chosen with picks 17-32: 3,900 yards and 20 touchdowns

That is the half the place those that are in favor of buying and selling Metcalf will argue that the Seahawks would have the ability to commerce him for a number of picks, resembling the primary and the third the Philadelphia Eagles gave the Tennessee Titans for A.J. Brown. That concept, nevertheless, ignores the truth that within the NFL groups don’t commerce for gamers, they commerce for gamers on a particular contract. Within the case of Brown the Eagles acquired a participant about to enter their age 25 season with a yr remaining on his rookie contract.

The 4 yr extension the Eagles gave Brown put him beneath contract for 5 seasons at a complete cap price of simply over $100M, a degree of flexibility a workforce wouldn’t have when buying Metcalf’s $13M wage for 2024 and $18M wage in 2025. That’s earlier than entering into the truth that a 25 yr outdated participant is extra useful than a 27 yr outdated participant due to the expectation of an extra two years of manufacturing accessible, which means any compensation obtained for buying and selling Metcalf can be lower than what was obtained for Brown.

Whatever the compensation obtained, although, the straightforward actuality is that typically gamers don’t pan out, even extremely touted first spherical prospects. For the reason that Eagles despatched a primary and a 3rd to the Titans, Brown has hauled in 194 passes to the tune of two,952 receiving yards and 18 touchdowns. In the meantime, Tennessee used the primary spherical choose it obtained from the Eagles to draft Treylon Burks, who has 665 receiving yards and a single landing to this point in his profession. It’s inconceivable to shut the guide on Burks at this level provided that he stays simply 24 years outdated, however the actuality is that he’s now no greater than fourth on the depth chart behind DeAndre Hopkins, Calvin Ridley and Tyler Boyd, and will wind up as a primary spherical particular groups participant in line with new Titans head coach Brian Callahan.

Now, certain, the Seahawks might save a ton of cap house by buying and selling Metcalf, however what precisely good would that do? Enable them to expire and signal somebody like Jamal Adams or Luke Joeckel or Phil Haynes or another participant whose pay far outweighs their manufacturing? Followers are fast to complain about Metcalf carrying a $24.5M or $29.5M cap hit, however is it by some means higher to present $24M to Phil Haynes, Luke Joeckel and Ziggy Ansah?

So, sure, Seattle might commerce probably the most productive younger receivers within the historical past of the NFL, however the actuality is that they gained’t as a result of the return on such a commerce would doubtless be far lower than what Metcalf will present.