It has been a minute, however the New York Jets are again. And by “again,” I imply legit Tremendous Bowl contenders.
And I do know what you are considering: “Right here we go once more … yearly, similar story!” However it’s completely different this time.
Final season, there was comprehensible hype. The protection was loaded after a terrific 2022 exhibiting, and the offense now had Aaron Rodgers underneath middle. Issues did not go as deliberate — it does not get a lot worse than dropping your future Corridor of Fame quarterback on his fourth snap of the season — however the protection nonetheless performed elite ball and helped the Jets to a decent (all issues thought-about) 7-10 document.
And on paper, the 2024 Jets are considerably higher than the 2023 Jets. You would be hard-pressed to check this roster with these of the opposite 31 NFL groups and never come away considering this can be a legit title contender. So let’s check out what New York has constructed and lay out why the Jets will win Tremendous Bowl LIX subsequent February.
Soar to:Protection | Offense | OL protectionRodgers | AFC East | SOS | The trail
An elite protection
How did the Jets win seven video games final season regardless of working what was simply the league’s worst offense? Easy. They’d an elite protection led by coach Robert Saleh and defensive coordinator Jeff Ulbrich.
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After guiding one of many league’s prime D models in San Francisco from 2017 to 2020, Saleh took over as New York’s coach in 2021. It took him a yr (the Jets have been final in defensive EPA in 2021), however he shortly turned issues round (they ranked fourth in 2022 and third in 2023). The Jets’ protection has delivered in all phases, together with rating among the many prime 4 in yardage allowed and ending seventh in sacks in every of the previous two seasons.
The longer term appears shiny for a unit that can return eight of its prime 9 individuals (by snaps) from 2023. That listing contains standout off-ball linebackers C.J. Mosley and Quincy Williams, an elite cornerback trio in Sauce Gardner, D.J. Reed and Michael Carter, and one of many league’s finest defensive tackles in Quinnen Williams.
The sting rusher room may have a barely completely different look, however it may be higher, with Haason Reddick (fourth within the league with 54 sacks over the previous 4 seasons) in and John Franklin-Myers and Bryce Huff out. Reddick will be a part of 2022 first-round decide Jermaine Johnson (7.5 sacks throughout a breakout 2023 marketing campaign) because the workforce’s beginning duo, with 2023 first-rounder Will McDonald IV — who was restricted to 177 snaps as a rookie due to the workforce’s wonderful depth on the place — arrange for a leap ahead in Yr 2.
Security is a possible weak spot after the departure of Jordan Whitehead, although the savvy and low cost addition of Chuck Clark should not be ignored. Clark missed all of 2023 with a torn ACL, however he posted 284 tackles (ninth most amongst safeties) with Baltimore over 2020-22. He offers a top quality operating mate for returning starter Tony Adams, who was strong on 845 snaps final season. Sort out depth behind Williams might be the larger concern for this protection, although placing skilled innings-eaters similar to Javon Kinlaw, Solomon Thomas and Leki Fotu on the sphere should not show overly detrimental.
Merely put, the Jets’ protection stays elite on paper, and there is little purpose to count on a regression from the previous two seasons.
A lot-improved offensive supporting forged
All eyes have been on Rodgers final offseason, which distracted from the truth that his offensive supporting forged wasn’t notably good. Working again Breece Corridor was recovering from a torn ACL, the extensive receiver room was arguably the worst within the league behind Garrett Wilson and offensive sort out was a significant concern.
Issues are in a a lot better spot getting into 2024.
Corridor (understandably) began sluggish final season, however his utilization elevated progressively by the season. He had his lowest snap share in Week 1 and his highest in Week 18. The 2022 second-round decide overcame the workforce’s offensive struggles to complete second amongst all operating backs in scrimmage yards (1,585), in addition to first in targets (94), receptions (76) and receiving yardage (591). Corridor, who turns 23 this summer season, has already solidified himself as one of many sport’s finest operating backs.
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Barnwell credit Jets for selecting the best gamers to deepen roster
Invoice Barnwell says the Jets are furthering their case to be legit contenders within the AFC East with their offseason acquisitions.
At extensive receiver, the Jets have an ace. Wilson is the true deal. The 2022 first-rounder is fourth within the league in targets (315) since he was drafted, trailing solely Davante Adams, Tyreek Hill and CeeDee Lamb. In fact, he is 14th in receptions (178), nineteenth in yards (2,145) and tied for 59th in touchdowns (7) throughout that span primarily due to the workforce’s dreadful quarterback play.
Through the offseason, the Jets signed large man Mike Williams and drafted short-range after-the-catch specialist Malachi Corley, which offers a giant improve on final season’s secondary receivers Xavier Gipson, Allen Lazard, Jason Brownlee and Randall Cobb.
Add in underrated tight finish Tyler Conklin (one among 4 TEs with 58-plus receptions every of the previous three seasons), and Rodgers has the assist he wants to supply at a excessive stage. That is particularly the case when you think about that he’ll additionally benefit from a strong line defending him.
Formidable offensive line
Heading into the 2023 season, I wrote that New York’s offensive sort out scenario was one of many league’s largest X components. Duane Brown and Mekhi Becton have been wild playing cards, and neither panned out. Brown appeared in solely two video games due to varied accidents, whereas Becton lastly stayed upright however struggled and wasn’t re-signed. The workforce blended and matched alongside the road all season lengthy and ended up ranked thirtieth in move block win price and twenty ninth in run block win price.
The road was clearly a giant downside, and the Jets’ entrance workplace took motion, transferring on from tackles Becton, Brown and Billy Turner, in addition to inside linemen Laken Tomlinson and Connor McGovern. The 5 gamers have been accountable for 2,636 (or 50.3%) of the workforce’s offensive line snaps in 2023.
The brand new-look line may have no less than 4 new Week 1 starters. The lone potential returning starter is true guard Alijah Vera-Tucker, who has been an above-average producer when wholesome since he was chosen within the first spherical in 2021. Vera-Tucker tore an Achilles whereas being pressured into proper sort out duties in Week 5 final season, however is on monitor to return for the beginning of the season. He will likely be joined on the inside by veteran addition John Simpson (LG) and 2023 second-round decide Joe Tippmann (C). Neither was overly spectacular in 2023, however Simpson was above-average as a pass-blocker on 1,191 snaps with Baltimore, and Tippmann is an efficient guess for a leap ahead in his second professional season.
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In fact, that also leaves the extraordinarily essential sort out place. New York made one among its largest strikes of the offseason when it signed future Corridor of Fame left sort out Tyron Smith away from Dallas. Accidents have been an issue for him in previous years, however he performed at a excessive stage on 882 snaps final season, which suggests the 33-year-old nonetheless has loads left within the tank. And if he have been to overlook time, the Jets have a fallback choice.
New York introduced aboard its potential left sort out of the longer term when it used the eleventh decide of April’s draft on Penn State’s Olu Fashanu. The rookie will no less than present insurance coverage for Smith and the brand new proper sort out, the underrated Morgan Moses, who has posted good-to-great marks in move block win price and run block win price in every of the previous two seasons. Projected starters apart, the Jets have seven extra linemen on the roster who performed snaps final season, which supplies them strong depth.
Positive, development for the kids and sturdiness for the veterans are each going to be key components right here, however now that Smith, Simpson, Tippmann, Vera-Tucker, Moses and Fashanu are within the fold, few groups can compete with the uncooked expertise and elite potential of the Jets’ offensive line.
Aaron Rodgers is again!
OK, that is the massive one — and maybe the hardest variable to type out.
Choose your lane:
Future first-ballot Corridor of Famer Aaron Rodgers continues to be the identical man who received back-to-back league MVPs in 2020 and 2021.
Rodgers is nicely previous his prime, having struggled in his ultimate season in Inexperienced Bay and now recovering from a torn Achilles at 40 years outdated.
One thing in between these first two choices.
In case you selected the primary choice, you agree the Jets are title contenders. In case you’re leaning towards the second, I am shocked you are still studying. And when you selected the ultimate end result — as most of you most likely have — you are doubtless heading in the right direction.
Sure, Rodgers was nice as not too long ago as 2021, however it’s honest to marvel if his career-worst exhibiting in 2022 was a product of a decline in play or a Davante Adams-less extensive receiver room led by Allen Lazard, Randall Cobb, Sammy Watkins and rookies Romeo Doubs and Christian Watson. He appeared in all 17 video games and was prime 10 in most counting stats that season, however he plummeted from first in QBR in each 2020 and 2021 to twenty sixth (amongst 31 certified quarterbacks) in 2022.
It is value noting that we have seen blips like that from Rodgers up to now. After posting a median end of seventh in QBR throughout his first 10 seasons as a starter (excessive of first, low of 14th), Rodgers dipped to sixteenth and twentieth, respectively, throughout the 2018 and 2019 seasons, which had many questioning if his days as an elite quarterback have been numbered. He shortly proved his critics incorrect. After final offseason’s change of surroundings, Rodgers was by all accounts his regular, elite self in Jets coaching camp and had the offense positioned nicely for a productive season (, previous to that torn Achilles deal).
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Aaron Rodgers expresses love for the Jets’ draft-day shuffle on ‘McAfee’
Aaron Rodgers says offensive sort out wasn’t on the prime of the Jets’ “wants” listing, however that he likes the Jets buying and selling again within the first spherical.
Certainly that is the largest piece of the puzzle and a tough one to decipher, but when we’re in a world the place Rodgers is a median (and even barely beneath common) NFL starter, that might nonetheless be a significant improve for a workforce that posted the league’s worst QBR in 2023 (23.4). In reality, the Jets have not posted an above-average QBR since 2015 and have completed twenty eighth or worst every of the previous six seasons. Rodgers figures to finish that streak, and even when he have been to overlook a while, having Tyrod Taylor in-house to carry down the fort is a a lot better scenario than final season’s Zach Wilson debacle.
If Rodgers stays elite, there isn’t any doubt that the Jets are Tremendous Bowl contenders. However even when he is only a competent starter, New York has the assist system round him to contend for an AFC title.
The state of the AFC East
The Payments have Josh Allen, so they’re nonetheless very a lot a risk within the AFC — however maybe not as a lot of a risk after Allen’s supporting forged took a success throughout the offseason. High wideouts Stefon Diggs (Texans) and Gabe Davis (Jaguars) departed for AFC rivals and have been changed by Curtis Samuel and second-round rookie Keon Coleman. Beginning middle Mitch Morse left for Jacksonville.
On protection, gone are Jordan Poyer (Dolphins), Micah Hyde (free agent), Leonard Floyd (49ers), Tyrel Dodson (Seahawks), Dane Jackson (Panthers) and Tre’Davious White (Rams). These are some large names, particularly within the secondary, and the departures depart query marks at varied ranges of the unit. Buffalo has defensive mastermind Sean McDermott calling the photographs, however his protection already fell to eighth in EPA final season, and it is honest to marvel if it may dip farther in 2024.
It is a comparable sentiment for the Dolphins, who have been a sport away from a division title final season. Miami’s offense stays quick and explosive however must show it could actually maintain a excessive stage of play when the temperature drops. And the protection has its palms full coping with a ton of offseason turnover, with the gamers accountable for over half of the workforce’s 2023 snaps not on the town. Christian Wilkins, DeShon Elliott, Xavien Howard, Jerome Baker and Andrew Van Ginkel are among the many departures, with Kendall Fuller, Poyer, Jordyn Brooks, Shaquil Barrett and first-round decide Chop Robinson being the important thing additions. The latter two may show extraordinarily essential, as star edge rushers Bradley Chubb (ACL) and Jaelan Phillips (Achilles) each suffered main knee accidents within the second half of final season.
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Greeny exasperated after studying Jets open season on ‘Monday Night time Soccer’
Mike Greenberg does not cover his emotions about how the Jets’ season is scheduled to start out nearly the identical method as final season’s disastrous opener.
An trustworthy, goal comparability of the three groups reveals that the Jets have constructed arguably the perfect roster within the division. And even when you assume it is shut, the Jets benefit from a tiebreaker right here …
Gentle power of schedule
Ending third within the AFC East final season means New York ought to, in concept, have a barely simpler slate than Buffalo and Miami. Per my very own workforce evaluations, that holds true, with the Jets checking in with the league’s ninth-easiest schedule (fourth best within the AFC), whereas the Dolphins sit at nineteenth, the Payments are thirty first and the Patriots rank thirty second.
The Jets’ distinctive video games are in opposition to the Steelers, Vikings and Broncos — all groups in transition at quarterback and arguably worse general on paper than in 2023. The Payments’ distinctive video games come in opposition to the Chiefs, Ravens and Lions, whereas the Dolphins draw the Raiders, Browns and Packers and the Patriots play the Bengals, Chargers and Bears.
Manageable highway to the Lombardi Trophy
So that is the division, however the elephant within the AFC room is the reigning champion Kansas Metropolis Chiefs. Are the Jets actually higher than them?
That is a daring declare to make when evaluating any workforce to a Patrick Mahomes-led franchise that has been to 4 of the previous 5 Tremendous Bowls. Nonetheless, we noticed Kansas Metropolis’s offense hit some roadblocks final season (tenth in EPA after ending no decrease than third every of the prior six years). And whereas nearly all of the protection that carried the workforce for many of 2023 stays intact, prime snap-getter and standout shadow nook L’Jarius Sneed was a significant departure. (In reality, Sneed shadowed Garrett Wilson when these two groups met in Week 4 final season, and Wilson totaled solely 60 yards on 14 targets within the 23-20 loss.)
If the Jets handle to overcome the Chiefs, the work is not carried out. They’re going to nonetheless must beat whichever workforce escapes an bettering NFC. The Lions, Cowboys and Eagles are among the many prime contenders, however for my part, the reigning convention champion 49ers are at the moment the Jets’ prime competitors for the “finest workforce on paper” title.
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Although the Niners stay stacked, the roster is not with out concern areas. The protection has the star energy (Nick Bosa, Fred Warner and Javon Hargrave), however depth up entrance is not as robust as regular, and key contributors Dre Greenlaw (Achilles) and Talanoa Hufanga (ACL) are recovering from main accidents. An underwhelming offensive line behind Trent Williams wasn’t a difficulty in 2023 — the 49ers simply led the NFL in offensive EPA — however it’s nonetheless a scenario to observe.
San Francisco’s offensive talent place gamers are simply the perfect within the league, so when you’re selecting between the Jets and 49ers, it actually comes all the way down to what you consider Brock Purdy. Statistically talking, Purdy was the league’s finest quarterback final season. He paced the place in QBR, yards per try, EPA and passer score. Is he actually that good, or was his efficiency inflated by the “Kyle Shanahan Impact.” It is doubtless a mix of each, which is why I am score Purdy as a top-10 quarterback but in addition a barely inferior participant to the far more confirmed Rodgers.
This can be a shut name between two robust rosters, however the Jets have the firepower to return out on prime. We’ll get an early have a look at how they stack up in opposition to each other after they face off on “Monday Night time Soccer” in Week 1.
The underside line
The Jets have not been to the Tremendous Bowl since Joe Namath led them to a historic upset of the Colts in Tremendous Bowl III. They have not put collectively a double-digit win season since 2015. They usually have not been to the playoffs since Rex Ryan received them there in 2010.
However issues change shortly within the NFL, and this roster is constructed to compete for a title proper now. If the Jets keep comparatively wholesome and Rodgers is one thing near his outdated self, you’ll be able to plan on listening to “J-E-T-S, JETS, JETS, JETS” chants echoing by New Orleans in February.
