What’s The Flooring For The Bucs’ Document in 2024?

Now that the Bucs schedule has been launched, Las Vegas has launched the betting strains for every sport the group has in 2024. Tampa Bay is favored in seven of their 17 matchups. It is a soar up from final 12 months once they have been favored in simply two.

Including up the Bucs’ odds of successful in every contest reveals that they’re predicted to win 7.88 video games subsequent 12 months, which might be a step again from their 9 wins in 2023. It additionally reveals a bit of worth for many who could wish to guess the over on the Vegas’ 7.5-win whole prediction.

However these strains also can give us a peek into Tampa Bay’s ceiling and flooring for the 2024 season.

Based mostly on the implied odds of every sport we are able to decide the chances of every attainable win whole (0-17), and from there decide what minimal variety of wins make up the group’s flooring (tenth percentile) and ceiling (ninetieth percentile).

Implied Odds Of The Bucs Successful Every Recreation

Listed here are the implied odds of Tampa Bay successful every sport this upcoming 12 months.

I pulled the “finest strains” relating to betting strains from Rotowire and pulled the Vegas edge out.

Discovering The Cumulative Odds Of Every Win Whole

The chances Tampa Bay wins a particular variety of video games are listed beneath:

Odds the Bucs win a particular variety of video games

Based mostly on this we are able to see that Tampa Bay’s odds of successful 4 or much less video games are simply 4.32%. That creates an affordable “flooring” as something much less could be outdoors two customary deviations from the imply.

Conversely, based mostly off of this the group has solely a 3.49% probability of successful greater than 11 video games, creating that as an affordable “ceiling.” That leaves a seven-win unfold between the 2. Here’s a graphical illustration of the chance of the Tampa Bay successful every variety of video games or much less.

Bucs Are Extra Seemingly To Attain Ceiling Than Flooring

Trying on the distinction between their 7.88 implied win whole and the now-established ceiling and there’s a nearer relationship between the implied whole and the ceiling (3.12) than the connection between the implied win whole and the ground (3.88). This implies the chances Tampa Bay wins someplace between seven and 11 video games is extra more likely to happen than the group successful between 4 and 7 video games.

That’s excellent news on paper, Pewter Folks.

Implied Win Totals For The Relaxation Of The NFC South

Bucs RB Rachaad White – Picture by: USA Right now

Based mostly on the implied odds of every week of the NFL season, the Bucs are projected to complete second within the NFC South because of this. Take into account that Tampa Bay has received the division the final three seasons, however the final two years have been by a razor’s edge.

In 2022, the Bucs went 8-9 and received the NFC South whereas all three different groups completed 7-10. Final 12 months, Tampa Bay and New Orleans each completed with 9-8 data however the Bucs received attributable to an NFC tiebreaker.

The Atlanta Falcons are projected to guide the division this 12 months with 9.36 wins. The New Orleans Saints are projected to come back in third with 7.39 wins.

And the Carolina Panthers are unsurprisingly projected to come back in final. Although the Panthers’ win whole projection could shock some Bucs followers at 6.57.