It’s safe to say the 2025 NCAA Tournament has been the most predictable edition of the Big Dance in recent memory. Many years, March Madness is a time of discovery. A month when a school or player that most of America has never heard of can become the talk of the nation. This year, however, March feels like a confirmation of what we saw in the regular season.
The intrigue in this bracket doesn’t come from the possibility of upsets. It comes from the fact that we’re tracking to see the best group of Elite Eight and Final Four teams since at least 2002. It was known before the tournament that this bracket featured four of the six highest-rated teams in the 23-year history of KenPom’s rankings. And guess what? All four teams of those are still alive and they’re all comfortable favorites to advance past the Sweet 16.
Best teams in Adjusted Efficiency Rating per KenPom heading into March Madness since 2002:
1. 2025 DUKE – 38.162. 2015 Kentucky- 37.433. 2021 Gonzaga – 36.624. 2025 FLORIDA – 36.165. 2025 HOUSTON – 35.446. 2025 AUBURN – 35.05
This tournament is the best we’ve ever seen
— Dalton Kates (@Dalton_Kates) March 17, 2025
SEC Remains The Strongest Conference We’ve Ever Seen
After a few losses and some uncharacteristically close calls in the Round of 64, the SEC skeptics came out in full force. I’m glad the self-proclaimed experts got their licks in when they could because they probably won’t be able to for the rest of the tournament. The SEC got a record seven teams in the Sweet 16. From the No. 1 overall seed Auburn to No. 10 seed Arkansas, who is the last double-digit seed remaining on the bracket in John Calipari’s maiden voyage in Fayetteville.
Auburn re-established itself after a shaky first-round win by outclassing Ryan Kalkbrenner and Creighton, a team that frankly looked poised for a potential upset in that game after demolishing Louisville in the first round. Florida also proved it’s mettle, surviving a brutally tough game against UConn thanks to Walter Clayton Jr.’s tough-as-nails performance down the stretch. Tennessee is still a title contender itself, but the Vols will have to get by conference foe Kentucky. A Kentucky team that swept them in the regular season
Not to mention No. 6 seed Ole Miss, who has quietly been the most impressive team in this tournament so far. The Rebels led by as many as 22 points in their Round of 64 victory over No. 11 seed North Carolina and by as many as 26 points in their Round of 32 victory over No. 3 seed Iowa State. Ole Miss is a slight underdog against Michigan State in the Sweet 16, but don’t be surprised if it continues to crash this party. Chris Beard has been down this road, after all.
The Big 10 Is Still The Big 10
While the SEC has largely confirmed what we already knew so far, the Big 10 has sort of shocked us. I would argue that the Big 10’s tear during the first weekend was even more impressive than the SEC getting seven teams into the Sweet 16. The conference started the tournament 10-0, winning all of its Round of 64 matchups and its first two Round of 32 matchups before No. 3 seed Wisconsin fell to No. 6 BYU on Saturday night.
Hell, two of the most popular upset picks in the first round were UCSD over Michigan and High Point over Purdue. Not only did the Big 10 favorite survive both of those matchups, they won their Round of 32 games also. The conference is also responsible for the highest drama in the tournament thus far, thanks to Derik Queen’s show-stopping buzzer-beater to beat Colorado State in the Round of 32. It was an impressive showing by the Big 10 this month. Even if the SEC clogs up the RSVP list for San Antonio.
It’s Going To Take A Wagon To Stop Duke
2001 Duke. 2012 Kentucky. 2024 UConn. Some teams are just destined to tear their way through the season and the NCAA Tournament with little regard for the drama or the “madness” that we all crave. I’m about ready to include 2025 Duke on that mantle of dominance, joining those four teams and a handful of other lights-out groups in the sport’s history.
You know how I mentioned earlier that this bracket has four of the six highest teams in the 23-year history of the KenPom rankings? This Duke team is number one. Ranked above 2014 Kentucky and 2021 Gonzaga, two teams who entered Final Four with unbeaten records. Not only that, Duke’s current 39.00 net efficiency rating would rank as the highest in the history of the rankings if they were to sustain it.
Duke has the No.1 adjusted offensive efficiency rating in the country and the Blue Devils rank fourth nationally by allowing just 61.7 points per game. Duke is led by a generational prospect in Cooper Flagg and a rising coach in Jon Scheyer, who is quickly cementing himself as a premier leader in the sport. This feels like the start to Duke’s next chapter of dominance.
