Indiana begins a three-game homestand Friday night against UCLA. The Bruins are 18-7 overall and 9-5 in the Big Ten. They are coming off a hard-fought 83-78 loss to Illinois at the State Farm Center.
Friday’s game will tip at 8 p.m. ET on FOX:
Was Indiana’s stunning 71-67 upset of Michigan State on Tuesday at the Breslin Center a sign that the Hoosiers could make a push to make the NCAA tournament? With four of its six remaining Big Ten games at Assembly Hall, Indiana can finish the regular season on a high note.
The Hoosiers now play three straight games in Bloomington. First is UCLA, which had a seven-game winning streak snapped Tuesday night against Illinois in Champaign. It will be the 13th all-time meeting between the historic programs. The series is currently tied, 6-6.
MEET THE BRUINS
Led by Mick Cronin, UCLA plays deliberately and focuses on winning the turnover battle. According to KenPom.com, the Bruins play at the 17th fastest pace in conference games and rank 310th nationally in adjusted tempo.
UCLA’s two leading scorers are in the frontcourt with forwards Tyler Bilodeau and Eric Dailey Jr. Bilodeau, a junior, transferred from Oregon State and Dailey, a sophomore, transferred from Oklahoma State.
At 6-foot-9 and 230 pounds, Bilodeau isn’t a back-to-the-basket big man. Nearly 29 percent of his field goal attempts have come from the perimeter, where he’s connecting at a 43.2 percent clip. Bilodeau averages a team-high 14.3 points. He’s very effective from the mid-range and will likely try to keep Oumar Ballo on the move defensively.
Dailey, who is 6-foot-8 and 230 pounds, can also stretch the floor. The Palmetto, Florida native is second on the Bruins in scoring at 11.7 points per game. He’s shooting 58.8 percent on 2s and 37.5 percent on 3s (64 attempts).
7-foot-3 center Aday Mara provides frontcourt depth. Mara was sick and didn’t play many minutes against Illinois, but had three straight double-figure scoring games against Wisconsin, Washington and USC last month. He’s shooting 58.5 percent from the field and 54 percent from the free-throw line.
South Dakota St. transfer William Kyle could also see spot minutes up front. The 6-foot-9 center is shooting 71.7 percent from the field and is averaging 3.3 points in 10.7 minutes per game.
The Bruins have a deep rotation of guards and wings and the leading scorer among the bunch comes off the bench. Sophomore Sebastian Mack has the fourth highest usage rate in the league and is wired to attack. The 6-foot-3 guard is averaging 10 points and has a free throw rate (FTA/FGA) of 59.3 percent. He’s converting at a 75 percent from the stripe. Mack is just a 28.2 percent 3-point shooter over his first two seasons.
The starting set for the Bruins features juniors Dylan Andrews and Skyy Clark and senior Kobe Johnson.
Johnson, a 6-foot-6 transfer from USC, is an athletic 6-foot-6 wing who leads the Bruins in rebounding at 5.8 per game and is fourth in scoring at 8.4 points per game. He also averages 2.8 assists and 1.8 steals per game.
Clark, a transfer from Louisville who began his career at Illinois, has scored in double figures in five out of the last eight games. The 6-foot-3 guard is making 54.3 percent of his 2s and 36.4 percent of his 3s.
The 6-foot-2 Andrews has 14 assists to just one turnover over the last three games. He’s shooting 36.7 percent on 3s in Big Ten play but is making only 40.3 percent of his 2s.
Two other rotation names to know are freshman Trent Perry and senior Lazar Stefanovic. The 6-foot-4 Perry was a top 35 recruit out of high school, but his minutes have declined as the season has progressed. Perry is shooting just 28.6 percent on 2s and 15.4 percent on 3s in Big Ten games. Stefanovic, a native of Belgrade, Serbia, is a career 35.4 percent 3-point shooter. Over half of his field goal attempts this season have been triples and he’s 20-for-56 from deep in his final season.
TEMPO-FREE PREVIEW
(All statistics in the chart below include conference games only.)
Cronin’s teams are typically stout defensively and this UCLA team fits the bill. The Bruins are 11th in adjusted defensive efficiency, per KenPom.com and rank first nationally in turnover percentage at 24. UCLA’s opponents are averaging 16.2 turnovers per game and the Bruins are creating a turnover margin of 5.6 per game.
UCLA’s vulnerabilities are on the defensive glass and its tendency to foul. The Bruins allow their Big Ten opponents to grab 31.1 percent of their misses, which ranks 13th in the league. UCLA also allows an opponent free-throw rate (FTA/FGA) of 39 percent, which is 16th in the Big Ten.
Offensively, UCLA is excellent at taking care of the ball, shooting 34.3 percent on 3s and 52.7 percent on 2s in Big Ten play. However, the Bruins are below average on the offensive glass (31.2 OR%) and at getting to the line (31.2 percent free throw rate).
WHAT IT COMES DOWN TO
The KenPom projection is UCLA by one with a 45 percent chance of an IU win. Bart Torvik’s numbers favor the Bruins by three with a 40 percent chance of a Hoosier victory.
Indiana has lost its last three games in Bloomington, a trend that needs to stop if the Hoosiers are going to climb back onto the NCAA tournament bubble. The Bruins are 0-4 in Big Ten games not played on the west coast with losses at Nebraska, Maryland, Rutgers and Illinois.
Unlike Michigan State, UCLA will be aggressive in sending help to the post to disrupt Ballo and Malik Reneau and how the bigs handle the pressure will pivotal in the game’s outcome. Indiana will also have to make some perimeter shots when the ball comes out of the post or the pressure on Ballo and Reneau will only intensify as the game goes along.
(Photo credit: UCLA Athletics)
Filed to: UCLA Bruins
