With a season’s worth of speculation almost at an end, we canvassed the opinions of four RugbyPass writers – one from each of the home nations – to tackle some of the key issues before head coach Andy Farrell unveils his British and Irish Lions squad on Thursday for the forthcoming expedition to Australia.
Will Farrell’s Lions be an Ireland identikit ensemble or something different? Did the European semi-finals force any late tinkering? What surprises might we expect? Who is indispensable to the Lions cause? Who might have played their way out? And will the Wallabies make it a competitive series?
Jamie Lyall (JL), Neil Squires (NS), Pat McCarry (PM) and Bryn Palmer (BP) attempt to come up with some answers.
What are you expecting the identity of Andy Farrell’s 2025 Lions to be?
JL: The annals of Lions history are littered with coaches who relied too heavily on one nation – typically their own – but there’s no way this tour should be anything but Ireland-dominated. The men in green have earned that right through their sustained excellence, even if fault lines have appeared this season.
That said, Farrell will be wary of the historical and cultural pitfalls of leaning too heavily on the most successful playing group. And a Lions coach cannot select purely on what a player does for his club and country, but consider what elevated heights he could scale in the red jersey with world-class talent around him. That will help a few embattled Welshmen. There won’t be more than four of them, though. England’s coming of age in 2025 – underpinned by a clutch of Northampton backs – will secure them a strong contingent. Into double figures, certainly. Scotland should contribute at least five backs and two props, but the bulk of their pack – with the emphasis on ‘bulk’ – will not have compelled Farrell sufficiently.
NS: Of course there will be a green tinge to these Lions. The clues are already there in a management team that includes Simon Easterby, Andrew Goodman and John Fogarty. That said, Ireland play the way they do to maximise their assets, not because their head coach is a structure zealot. It would be foolish of Farrell not to be flexible with his system in order to extract the maximum from the other assets he has available to him in a Lions context. Finn Russell for instance. Why would you want to put him in a box? The one thing we can be reasonably sure of is that this will be a Lions side built to compete on the floor. The multitude of backrow scavenger options and jackal threats elsewhere, with the likes of Tadhg Beirne and Maro Itoje, make that a certainty.
PM: The bulk of the squad will be from Ireland and England, with the men in green shading it. The assistant coach announcements, particularly that late Johnny Sexton curve-ball, have left the impression Farrell will go for cohesive and familiar picks. Richard Wigglesworth is coaching, but most English picks should be in the forwards. John Dalziel got the shout, but there may only be three Scottish forwards heading to Oz.
With Ireland, Farrell has leaned heavily on the talents and combinations from Leinster. By the time the Tests roll around, we could have five Ireland players in the pack and another three (at least) in the back field. English players – through Champions Cup and Six Nations deeds – could push into the teens, in terms of that final squad tally.
Henry Pollock has timed his charge well and backed up the hype by utterly rattling Leinster’s cage. Seeing him in person was like watching a mix of Richie McCaw and Stephen Ferris.
BP: It would be a surprise if Farrell moved too far away from the personnel and structures that have been so successful with Ireland, especially given his attack and defence coaches are also part of the Irish staff. That hardly suggests a radical overhaul.
Warren Gatland’s Lions weren’t too dissimilar to Wales in the way they went about their business, which paid off in Australia and New Zealand, even if so-called ‘Warrenball’ came up short in South Africa against a side playing a more ruthless version in a turgid series.
Ireland and England are both likely to supply a dozen players each, and you imagine the Test forward pack will be largely forged from those two nations. But if the attacking flair of Scotland’s backs can be bolted onto the grunt and athleticism up front, then these Lions could yet be a sight to behold.
Will last weekend’s results, notably Leinster’s loss, have changed Farrell’s thinking?
JL: Not materially. The EPCR knockouts might confirm a ‘probable’, or see a ‘possible’ scrubbed off the board, but we’re not talking wholesale changes. Farrell will have inked in 90% of his selections long before now.
PM: If we see Henry Pollock’s name read out on Thursday, that would be a resounding yes. The Northampton flanker has timed his charge well and backed up the hype by utterly rattling Leinster’s cage. Seeing him in person was like watching a mix of Richie McCaw and Stephen Ferris.
The Lions cases of Sam Prendergast and Joe McCarthy would not have been helped by their less than stellar outings in that Champions Cup loss to Saints.
It was notable Owen Farrell played at inside centre, for Racing 92, for the first time this season. Anyone on Lions watch will have perked up when that team news came through. Unfortunately, that possible late audition for 10/12 cover only lasted 19 minutes.
NS: As good as Northampton were in Dublin, Leinster’s players are not all duffers on the back of one disallowed last-minute try. There is a danger of recency bias here and Farrell is too shrewd an operator to throw the baby out with the bathwater. The core of the Lions will still be Ireland and the core of Ireland is Leinster.
BP: If Farrell was still swithering over his fly-halves, then Sam Prendergast picked a bad time to have his defensive frailties exposed in such a high-profile contest, particularly when one of his rivals, Fin Smith, again demonstrated his big-match temperament.
They both might still get the nod, but if it comes down to a choice of one or the other, the Saints conductor appears to tick more boxes in his overall game than his fellow 22-year-old. Leinster should still supply at least 10 of the Lions squad though, possibly more.
Bath openside Sam Underhill delivered a towering display in their Challenge Cup semi-final win at Edinburgh, but competition there is already hotter than the sun – pick two or three from Jac Morgan, Jack Willis, Ben Earl, Tom and Ben Curry, Josh van der Flier, Rory Darge. Henry Pollock’s display in Dublin just added further spice to the flanker debate.
Are we in for some surprise selections? If so, who?
JL: Three months ago, talk of Henry Pollock as a Lions bolter was wildly fanciful. Not anymore. Through the brilliance of his play and the sheer cadence of his mouth, Pollock has shot to the centre of the rugby consciousness. A sport starved of characters should embrace this fearless tyro. He’s rugby’s answer to Muhammad Ali: the Loughborough Lip. He talks big, but boy, does he play big too.
Pollock went toe to toe with the Leinster juggernaut and emerged whooping and cackling at the end. He’s smart with the timing of his jackals and brutally effective on ball. He has the all-court skillset to scramble senses and has taken every step on the ladder with a frankly hilarious ease. Pollock has exactly the personality to relish and blossom on a Lions tour. Honestly, hearing his name read out on Thursday wouldn’t be that great a surprise.
I’d also advise George Ford to clear his diary.
The art of Lions selection is to imagine how players will look in a different shirt, with different teammates in a different environment.
NS: I don’t see Farrell naming an uncapped player – this isn’t the Barbarians – but I can see him looking to a couple of veterans. Elliot Daly would be a good pick with versatility prized on a Lions tour. At 32, he showed he can still cut it for England in the Six Nations and he could do a job in a range of positions for the Lions as well as thumping a penalty or two over from a different postcode.
I’d also take 34-year-old Taulupe Faletau. He may have been swallowed up into the Wales black hole but he remains a class operator at No 8. The art of Lions selection is to imagine how players will look in a different shirt, with different teammates in a different environment. There will be so few Welshmen in the squad that any close calls should go their way. Farrell will be leaning over backwards to ensure some representation.
PM: Owen Farrell and Henry Pollock. One or both will generate huge headlines and there are strong arguments in favour of those dice rolls.
With news of Caelan Doris having a potentially “serious” shoulder injury, according to Leinster coach Jacques Nienaber, the door is ajar for Ben Curry and Ben Earl. Jack Conan and Earl can both cover No.8, with Jack Willis possibly joining the tour if Toulouse’s Top 14 push goes to the final day. Earl can cover across the back row, so if he focuses on No.8, Ben Curry could yet make it.
Otherwise, not many predicted squads I have seen include Dafydd Jenkins. I would bring him.
BP: It’s difficult to imagine a genuine left-field bolter, in the manner of an uncapped Will Greenwood in 1997. Henry Pollock, who scored two tries on his one brief England outing as a replacement, could be the modern-day equivalent, but his Lions chances have been championed widely in recent weeks and days. The youngster is clearly not short of X-factor talent or confidence and would bring plenty of energy – an important ingredient on Lions tours – but who do you leave out to accommodate him? (see above).
If Farrell fancies a versatile backline operator who can cover several positions, then Scotland’s Tom Jordan may be a relatively surprise pick. The bigger shocks are likely to come from one or two established names, who many had inked in, missing out.
From a Welsh perspective, getting more than three players in the squad would constitute something of a surprise. Wing/full-back Blair Murray could be one if so.
Which stars have played their way out of Lions contention in recent months?
JL: The rise of Fin Smith as England’s go-to fly-half and the recent travails of Harlequins have dented Marcus Smith’s cause. Is he best string-pulling from the pivot position or launching counter-raids from full-back? Is he a first-choice shout for either role, with England or the Lions? He has a truly dazzling armoury of skills but where does he fit in a matchday squad? Versatility counts in his favour but does he get chosen ahead of Hugo Keenan and Blair Kinghorn at 15 or Finn Russell, the other Smith, Ford or Sam Prendergast at 10? Smith is a phenomenal talent and his time as an England starter will come again. His place on tour, though, is far from certain.
Farrell has also yet to publicly address the Toulouse question. Assuming Jack Willis and Blair Kinghorn stay fit (the latter missed Sunday’s semi-final), and Toulouse make the Top 14 showpiece, would the duo be granted late entry to the party? The French final is on 28 June, the same day the Lions play their first match in Australia against the Western Force. Travel time rules out the following match that midweek. Jet lag would make the third game, on 5 July, a challenge too. From that point on, there are two weeks until the first Test. It isn’t exactly painless, but Farrell may reckon this pair are worth the wait.
NS: Marcus Smith would be the obvious answer having retreated to bit-part player for Steve Borthwick after being England’s best player last autumn. I’d still take him to Australia though. He has magic in his boots and can cover full-back as well as No 10. Owen Farrell’s star has also waned although that is less down to how he has played than how little he has played.
PM: As a long-time Henry Slade fan, it has been a shame to see him struggle, with Exeter and England. I would love to be wrong here, but Robbie Henshaw has not done enough to sweep aside all doubt. Has been merely fine for Leinster, since the Six Nations, but outshone by Garry Ringrose and Jordie Barrett. Was dogged, with little impact, against Northampton. Squandered two gilt-edged chances to score in Ireland’s loss to France.
Marcus Smith has not exactly played his way into contention – shaky in his two trips to Dublin (for England and Harlequins) – but could yet squeeze in, if Farrell wants an extra full-back option.
BP: Wales scrum-half Tomos Williams might have played his way in, then out, and possibly back in again, depending on what weight Farrell attaches to his displays for club or country. The 30-year-old has been in sublime form for Gloucester and been involved in more tries than any player in England’s Premiership this season, scoring eight himself.
But when Wales desperately needed one of their few experienced hands to step up to the plate during another tough Six Nations campaign, Williams was dragged down into the general malaise of the dog-days of Warren Gatland’s second spell. Of course, any scrum-half would suffer behind a struggling pack delivering slow ball on the back foot, and it is still possible to imagine Williams thriving in Lions red, if selected.
Which player is indispensable to the Lions and why?
JL: Jamison Gibson-Park. Sure, Alex Mitchell, Tomos Williams and Ben White are terrific scrum-halves but none can match the Irishman’s class. A tempo-setter with supreme vision, lethal instincts and brilliant execution. And he’s been operating at the peak of his powers for an age.
He can jack up the pace, make or create line breaks, or pepper the backfield. His capacity to choose which of those weapons to use at the right time sets him apart. His brain seems to operate at a different speed to everyone else.
Gibson-Park has long been up there with Antoine Dupont as the game’s premier scrum-half and with the French phenom stricken, he’s the clear front-runner.
NS: Sione Tuipulotu. He is the complete package as a ball carrier and distributor at inside-centre. He was a colossal loss to Scotland in the Six Nations and he would be to the Lions too in what is probably their weakest position. Maro Itoje should be bracketed alongside him as the first name on the Lions’ Test team sheet.
PM: Jamison Gibson-Park. The second-best scrum-half in world rugby, behind a player, in Antoine Dupont, who may yet go down as the greatest of all time.
The 33-year-old has been crucial to the success of Ireland, over the past four years, and has been cruelly denied the trophies his Leinster performances have deserved. His computer brain has three or four scenarios mapped out before he even reaches the ruck, and both his defence and fitness levels have gone up another notch.
Experienced Lions tourists like Tadhg Furlong, Maro Itoje, Tadhg Beirne and Tom Curry will be key, but there is a definite step down if any ill befalls Gibson-Park.
BP: Jamison Gibson-Park. While the other scrum-half options all have their qualities, none offer the same level of authority, accuracy and rugby acumen that Ireland’s No.9 general brings to the party. A genuine world-class operator, the prospect of him and Finn Russell in tandem is a tantalising one for Lions supporters.
The key position of tighthead is a concern, given the fitness issues of Tadgh Furlong and now Zander Fagerson. No one doubts Furlong’s Lions pedigree – the only player alongside Alun Wyn Jones to start every Test across the last two tours – but he has started just five games this season and there must be questions over whether his body will last the course.
If Fagerson recovers fully from an untimely calf injury which may keep him out for the rest of the club season, he perhaps offers a more reliable alternative given his superb form over a sustained period. Otherwise Will Stuart could suddenly find himself a key man.
How competitive are you expecting the Wallabies to be?
JL: These Wallabies are dangerous, no question. Joe Schmidt inherited a bin-fire of rancour and farce and got it functioning in an impressively brief timeframe. Australia crave possession and innovation like all the great Schmidt teams, have shored up their set-piece and in Joseph-Aukuso Suaalii, possess a truly generational strike weapon.
Crucially, they’ve also notched some excellent wins. If they can stir Taniela Tupou from his torpor, get Europe-based behemoths like Will Skelton rested and readied, and nail the balance of their back row against a jackal-laden Lions pack, their prospects will only improve. As fiendishly hard as winning Lions series is for the tourists, the home team remain underdogs.
NS: Australia are no longer a basket case. The victories over England and Wales on their tour last autumn and the fact that they ran Ireland close were positive signs that Joe Schmidt has turned the ship around in time for the Lions. However I still do not see the Wallabies winning a Test.
If a few of the Super Rugby sides and the ANZAC selection can push them hard in the warm-ups, we may see a patched-up Lions creaking in the Test series.
PS: Very. It has been encouraging to see Aussie sides faring well in Super Rugby Pacific. Joe Schmidt had his squad primed for the November Tests, beating England in a thriller and shredding Wales. They looked badly off-colour against Scotland but were very unlucky not to turn Ireland over, in Dublin.
The Lions will be bringing quite a few players either recovering from knocks or not long back from spells on the sidelines. If a few of the Super Rugby sides and the ANZAC selection can push them hard in the warm-ups, we may see a patched-up unit creaking in the Test series. A year ago, I would have called it 3-0. Now, I reckon the Lions will win 2-1.
BP: Ultra competitive. All three full Lions tours Down Under – in 1989, 2001 and 2013 – have gone to a deciding Test, and it would be no surprise if this series went the same way. This may not be a vintage Australia team, but they have progressed under Joe Schmidt, had some big wins together and will be highly motivated to ensure predictions of a casual Lions whitewash are misguided.
Farrell was part of the coaching staff for the last tour to Australia in 2013, so will be under no illusions. Those Lions had superior class but needed a Kurtley Beale slip with the final kick to win the first Test and couldn’t put the Aussies away in the second. The Wallabies made life devilishly difficult for the tourists until the decider, when the Lions’ belatedly blew them away. Farrell’s men should prevail, but it’s likely to be a lot closer than many believe.
