Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s Return to Third Base Received’t Flip Toronto’s Season Round

Anybody who noticed the lineup that the Blue Jays fielded on Sunday towards the Pirates was handled to a comparatively unfamiliar sight: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. beginning at third base for the primary time since his 2019 rookie season, and enjoying the place in an everyday season recreation for the primary time since ’22. Designed to squeeze an additional bat into the lineup, the transfer helped the Blue Jays to a victory. However whereas they could proceed the experiment right here and there, they’ve greater issues to resolve in the event that they’re going to climb again into rivalry.

Beginning Guerrero at third base had been an possibility for which the Blue Jays had been getting ready for just a few weeks. For the event, supervisor John Schneider gave Justin Turner the beginning at first base, with Daniel Vogelbach serving because the designated hitter. The latter went 2-for-4 on Sunday, and capped a three-run fifth-inning rally with a double off Pirates righty Quinn Priester, with Guerrero, who had singled in a run, scoring from first base to offer Toronto a 4-3 lead. With Blue Jays starter Chris Bassitt and 4 relievers producing simply 9 floor balls whereas hanging out 13, Guerrero didn’t need to make a play within the area till the seventh inning; he dealt with his two probabilities completely, the second of which featured a powerful spin transfer whereas he was shifted to the place the shortstop would often play:

Schneider didn’t get a equally constructive return when he used the identical configuration on Tuesday night time. Vogelbach went 0-for-3 and the Blue Jays fell behind 4-0 within the third; they have been down 10-1 by the point Guerrero made his two assists, within the eighth and ninth innings.

You may’t win ’em all, and whereas the Blue Jays did string collectively 4 straight victories final week towards the White Sox and Pirates, they haven’t been been successful sufficient. At 29-32, they’re final within the AL East, 14 video games behind the Yankees, and 4 again within the wild card chase, albeit with 4 different groups between them and the Twins, the bubble staff. Their Playoff Odds are simply 16.9%, decrease than all however 4 different AL groups, three of which (the Angels, A’s, and White Sox) are fully useless within the water. In different phrases, each AL staff with a pulse besides the Crimson Sox has a greater likelihood of enjoying into October, and my intestine says Boston ought to have higher odds based mostly on its pitching.

The Blue Jays are lucky to be near .500, as they haven’t performed nicely on both facet of the ball, rating twelfth within the AL in scoring at 3.89 runs per recreation and eleventh in run prevention at 4.61 runs per recreation. Primarily based on their projected successful percentages by way of Pythagenpat (.422) and BaseRuns (.423), they’re about three wins forward of the place they need to be.

As for Guerrero, he got here up as a 3rd baseman, spending each defensive inning of his minor league profession on the scorching nook after being signed out of the Dominican Republic. The scouting stories weren’t nice, as his plus arm was offset by an absence of first-step quickness and restricted lateral mobility attributable to his measurement (6-foot-2, 245 kilos), however his bat was deemed particular sufficient that he was nonetheless the consensus no. 1 prospect coming into 2019, and projected to spend no less than the early years of his main league profession enjoying third.

Guerrero gave third base a go when the Blue Jays known as him up in late April 2019, after a strained indirect stored him down within the minors lengthy sufficient to stop him from getting a full yr of service time. The 20-year-old rookie performed 96 video games there in addition to 24 at DH, and the outcomes have been… not nice. In 824.1 innings, he was three runs beneath common in response to DRS, 9.4 beneath common in response to UZR, and a whopping 15 beneath common in response to what’s now FRV (Statcast’s measure) thanks largely to his lateral vary points. When mixed along with his modest 106 wRC+ on the plate, these defensive shortcomings restricted his worth to 0.3 WAR, although utilizing DRS, he completed with a extra respectable 2.1 Baseball Reference WAR.

The Blue Jays moved Guerrero to first base throughout 2020 summer season camp, and he’s been the common there ever since. By all accounts he’s labored onerous to study the place, however the outcomes have been nothing particular; in 471 video games totaling 4,099.1 innings — roughly the equal of three seasons — he’s accrued -6 DRS, -4.3 UZR, and -19 FRV within the area, along with his -10 FRV final yr the outlier; six of his eight different measures from 2021–23 have been inside three runs of common in both path.

When it got here to filling the void left by the free agent departure of Matt Chapman this previous offseason, the Blue Jays didn’t precisely go low cost, in that they threw some cash at free brokers on short-term offers. Their strikes nonetheless amounted to a downgrade that may require Schneider to combine and match, and all indicators pointed towards mediocrity; the staff ranked twenty third at third base in our preseason Positional Energy Rankings, its lowest rating at any place.

Up to now, Isiah Kiner-Falefa, whom they signed to a two-year, $15 million deal, has began 29 video games there and one other 21 at second base, with Turner, whom they inked to a one-year, $13 million deal, beginning 4 video games at third (a place he performed for simply seven video games final yr and 66 the yr earlier than) plus one other seven at first and 36 at DH. Ernie Clement, a Quad-A utilityman, has began 23 occasions at third, with Cavan Biggio (twice) and Addison Barger (as soon as) making cameos. Whereas Kiner-Falefa has hit a decent .268/.313/.391 (103 wRC+) total, he’s the one one of many bunch who’s been league common. Turner has hit .225/.307/.354; Tuesday’s three-hit recreation carried him from 87 to 93 when it comes to wRC+, however he’s hitting a cringeworthy .143/.226/.179 (23 wRC+) in 93 plate appearances for the reason that begin of Might. Clement has hit simply .231/.250/.346 (68 wRC+) total, with a 31 wRC+ in 53 PA for the reason that begin of Might.

In all, the staff’s third basemen have mixed to hit .234/.267/.355 (77 wRC+) with stable protection (5 DRS, 0.1 UZR, 0 FRV) and a web 0.1 WAR. Forgoing that for shoehorning an additional bat within the lineup is a artistic response to that downside, notably in entrance of a pitching workers that has the majors’ sixth-lowest groundball fee (40.6%), with 4 of their common starters within the 41–45% vary. Protection is the one space the place the Blue Jays have been distinctive. They’re first within the majors with 41 DRS, second with 17 FRV, and tenth in UZR at 6.1, so buying and selling protection for offense is sensible conceptually, no less than.

Although he had performed simply 4 innings at third (a pair of late-game cameos) in 2021 and ’22, Guerrero had continued to take groundballs there frequently throughout the offseason, and the Blue Jays gave him time to take action in current weeks in preparation for Sunday’s experiment.

“I signed as a 3rd baseman, so it’s my favourite place,” Guerrero advised reporters by means of an interpreter on Sunday. “However I’m the form of particular person and participant who thinks that in case you can play each corners, first and third the best means, that can give your supervisor and your staff extra choices — like at present. No matter if third is my favourite place, I’ll be ready.”

In keeping with Schneider, this may very well be a recurring scenario, however it doesn’t sound prefer it’s going to be a wholesale place change à la Miguel Cabrera circa 2012. By way of Sportsnet’s Shi Davidi:

Schneider pressured that “it’s not a place change by any means, it simply provides some flexibility,” and advised he may use Guerrero there a pair occasions each week or 10 days, or so. That helped quantify the imaginative and prescient expressed by GM Ross Atkins on MLB Community Radio, when he stated Guerrero “will get some begins there,” in a bid to “deploy a lineup that possibly creates a bit of extra offence.”

Vogelbach got here up massive on Sunday, however he’s hardly tearing the quilt off the ball. In reality, he’s principally replicating the shortage of manufacturing from the staff’s third basemen, batting .203/.282/.328 (78 wRC+). Saturday and Sunday marked the primary time this season he put collectively back-to-back video games with a number of hits (he has only one different multi-hit recreation). He’s 0-for-7 since then, much less anyone get the concept that he’s turned the nook.

However Vogelbach isn’t solely accountable for Toronto’s offensive woes. There’s loads of that to go round, as key hitters corresponding to George Springer (.210/.302/.317, 83 wRC+), Bo Bichette (.238/.287/.348, 82 wRC+), and Alejandro Kirk (.216/.291/.284, 69 wRC+) have drastically underperformed. All of them are no less than trending constructive, in that every has a wRC+ above 100 since Might 15, however they’ve received a methods to go earlier than they match the numbers on the again of their baseball playing cards. The guts of the matter is that simply 5 of the staff’s 13 place gamers — everybody with 71 PA or extra — have managed a 100 wRC+ or higher. In the meantime, of the 17 pitchers with no less than 10 innings below their belts, solely three have a FIP- of 100 or decrease, and simply seven have an ERA- of 100 or decrease; solely Yusei Kikuchi (96 ERA-, 73 FIP- in 66.1 innings) and Yimi García (39 ERA-, 51 FIP- in 24 innings) have each. It’s grim.

As for Guerrero, he’s been a brilliant spot, if an enigmatic one, hitting .291/.383/.410 for a 133 wRC+. On the one hand, he’s displaying extra plate self-discipline than ever, setting profession lows in swing fee each within the zone (67.4%) and out of doors it (21.6%); his total 45.2% swing fee represents a drop of greater than 5 factors relative to final yr. He’s strolling a career-high 12.6% of the time. Alternatively, he’s homered simply six occasions, and his .119 ISO is the bottom mark of his profession by 43 factors.

A better look reveals that Guerrero is definitely hitting the ball very onerous, with a career-best hard-hit fee and his highest common exit velocity and barrel fee since 2021. However he’s received little to point out for it:

Guerrero’s 86-point hole between his SLG and xSLG is the twentieth largest out of 263 qualifiers, and it’s a fair greater hole than final yr, when he was pulling the ball with higher frequency total (42.3% vs. 36.2% this yr) and, notably within the season’s first half, getting hosed by the newly raised fences on the Rogers Centre:

That blue-shaded row is Guerrero’s numbers once I checked in simply after he received final yr’s House Run Derby. At that time, he had the biggest SLG-xSLG differential in Statcast historical past, however the scenario corrected itself considerably. Hotter climate was most likely an element, and if that’s the case, I’d anticipate we see some constructive regression as this season progresses. The larger subject, I believe, is that Guerrero is hitting groundballs at a career-high 53.2% clip, up from final yr’s 46.2%, and his common launch angle is about half of what it was final yr. These balls don’t go over the fence in any respect, and there’s not as a lot to realize by hitting them barely tougher. (See at present’s piece on Manny Machado for extra on that subject.)

Nonetheless, Guerrero’s further grounders — whether or not they’re those coming off his bat or those he’s fielding, both at third base or first base — are removed from the Blue Jays’ largest downside. His dabbling at third base is an fascinating sideshow, but when they’re going to assert a wild card spot for the third straight season, the Jays want an entire bunch of gamers to play as much as their capabilities.