Vikings’ opinion of McCarthy makes Darnold’s future seem clear

Quarterback Sam Darnold broke out in 2024, but the Minnesota Vikings still don’t seem to think he’s their guy.

On Tuesday, The Athletic’s Alec Lewis reported that the Vikings still believe J.J. McCarthy — the 10th overall pick of the 2024 NFL Draft — will become their franchise QB. 

McCarthy didn’t play in 2024 after tearing his meniscus in the preseason. However, he recently told Sports Illustrated’s Claudette Montana he should be ready for the beginning of OTAs in the spring. 

If McCarthy continues to progress, that increases the chance Darnold signs elsewhere when free agency begins on March 12 at 4 p.m. ET. 

“Think of it almost like a checklist,” wrote Lewis. “If McCarthy’s health continues to trend the way it is, and the Vikings decide their roster is better off without a hefty cap hit at QB, and no other team expresses interest in trading for Darnold, and the Vikings want to create a chance for a compensatory pick, letting Darnold walk would be the understandable path.”

In a piece published Monday, ESPN’s Kevin Seifert suggested the Vikings will use the franchise tag on cornerback Byron Murphy Jr. — who tied for third in the league in interceptions (six in 17 games) in 2024 — instead of Darnold. 

Spotrac estimates Darnold’s market value is a four-year deal worth $40.1M annually. The underwhelming QB class in the 2025 NFL Draft gives him leverage, which may help him secure an even bigger contract.

Offering Darnold a mega deal may not be a sound financial move for the Vikings. A new contract could feature a sizable cap number, depleting Minnesota’s spending room. 

If the Vikings want to give McCarthy more time, they could re-sign backup QB Daniel Jones, a former starter for the New York Giants.

Letting Darnold walk may be difficult, especially after he threw a career-high 35 touchdown passes in 17 regular-season starts in 2024. Still, the Vikings feel McCarthy has more upside and want to build around him.