UFC Vegas 107 main card odds, breakdowns and predictions | X-Factor

This weekend (Sat., May 31, 2025), Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) returns home to UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada for UFC Vegas 107. Generally, a genuine No. 1 contenders match between Top 5-ranked contenders is plenty worthy as a main event, a step up from the usual Apex booking. In this case, however, we have to admit that the women’s Flyweight division still leaves something to be desired, so the divisional implications lose their luster a bit. Really, the problem is the supporting cast isn’t quite there — there’s no discernible difference in quality between the “Prelims” and main card.

Let’s dig into the analysis and predictions of the three main card fights leading up to the main event:

Light Heavyweight: Dustin Jacoby (-180) vs. Bruno Lopes (+130)

Best Win for Jacoby? Vitor Petrino For Lopes? Magomed GadzhiyasulovCurrent Streak: Both men won their last bout X-Factor: Jacoby is a little long in the toothHow these two match up: A veteran kickboxer welcomes a prospect to the deep end of the Light Heavyweight pool.

Once more, Jacoby is operating as a 205-pound gatekeeper, putting his less experienced opposition to the test. The GLORY veteran may be 2-3 in his last five, but he’s been holding his own against tough opposition even in defeat. Jacoby is primarily known for his jab and low kick, but he proved there’s still power in his punches last time out with a stunning knockout over Petrino.

Bruno Lopes is a Brazilian prospect with who recently scored his first Octagon victory. He’s a well-rounded finisher capable on the feet and the canvas, but this is a significant step up in competition for the 32-year-old “Brunao.”

Generally, I favor the veteran here. Jacoby’s takedown defense isn’t impenetrable, so wrestling feels like Lopes’ path to victory. Even so, I’m not convinced that he has the depth to his game necessary to consistently find entires without gassing out in the process. Most likely, Jacoby’s stand up advantage buys him the time and space to do attritional damage and build a lead.

He might have to survive a couple takedowns or even a big right hand, but he’s no stranger to weathering a storm.

Prediction: Jacoby via decision

Middleweight: Zach Reese (-285) vs. Dusko Todorovic (+230)

Best Win for Reese? Julian Marquez For Todorovic? Maki Pitolo Current Streak: Reese lost his last bout, whereas Todorovic has lost two in a rowX-Factor: Todorovic is in a win-or-get-cut positionHow these two match up: There’s little chance this bout sees the final bell.

Reese is a large, aggressive Middleweight with some clean offensive striking. I wouldn’t claim there’s anything too complicated about his overall game, but there’s always space on the roster for fighters who bite down on their mouthpiece and try to destroy their opponents at the first bell.

Todorovic is an interesting fighter with a fatal flaw. He’s generally fairly skilled, particularly slick with his clinch throws and ground strikes. However, he’s not the best athlete nor is he especially durable, which means he’s prone to getting blasted if unable to score the early takedown.

I like Todorovic’s ground work, but I struggle to see him having much success here. Reese is going to be larger, faster, and more devastating on the feet, and he has solid finishing instincts from the first bell. He’s going to press his advantages right away, and I’m not sure Todorovic has the chin to survive that barrage.

He eats a long straight down the middle and hits the floor a couple minutes into the first.

Prediction: Reese via knockout

Flyweight: Allan Nascimento (-155) vs. Jafel Filho (+130)

Best Win for Nascimento? Jake Hadley For Filho? Ode OsbourneCurrent Streak: Both men have won two in a rowX-Factor: Both have been riding the bench for over a yearHow these two match up: Brazilian veterans with jiu-jitsu black belts will collide!

This is really something of a mirror match on paper. Rather than do the standard intro, let’s just compare some stats between Nascimento and Filho.

16-4 professional record vs. 16-3 professional record. Both are 2-1 in the UFC
5’8” with a 69.5 inch reach vs. 5’7” with a 68.5 inch reach
16 finishes (15 tapout, one knockout) vs. 15 finishes (10 tapout, five knockout)
33 years old vs. 32 years old
Both are jiu-jitsu black belts

Clearly, we’re talking about similar fighters. There are a couple key differences to note, however. For example, Nascimento appears to be the slightly more technical striker, whereas Filho has the power punching edge.

The primary difference-maker in my eyes is wrestling. Nascimento appears to have cleaner form on his shots and better transitions generally. He’s also damn good at pinning his foes to the canvas, as evidenced by his Hadley victory. In a battle of jiu-jitsu guys, the man more consistently gaining top position is usually the victor, so the wrestling edge alone has me favoring “Puro Osso.”

I’m hoping for some fun scrambling rather than an okay kickboxing match, and it looks like Nascimento has the takedowns to make that happen.

Prediction: Nascimento via decision

‘X-Factor’ Picks for 2025: 22-16

MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC Vegas 107 fight card RIGHT HERE, starting with the ESPN+ “Prelims” undercard bouts at 6 p.m. ET, followed by the remaining main card balance (also streaming on ESPN+) at 9 p.m. ET.

To checkout the latest and greatest UFC Vegas 107 news and notes be sure to hit up our comprehensive event archive here.