UFC 317 roundtable: What happens if Ilia Topuria loses?

Ilia Topuria has the golden opportunity he wanted, but UFC 317 could turn out to be a case of being careful what you wish for.

The former featherweight champion seeks to add the UFC lightweight title to his collection when he fights Charles Oliveira in Saturday’s main event at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. No, he’s not getting the chance to dethrone pound-for-pound king Islam Makhachev – himself, moving up to 170 pounds to become a “champ-champ” – but if he defeats Oliveira to claim the vacant belt, he’ll join a list of legendary two-division champions that includes Georges St-Pierre, Jon Jones, Amanda Nunes, Alex Pereira, Conor McGregor, Daniel Cormier, Randy Couture, Henry Cejudo, and B.J. Penn.

But what if he falls short? Topuria has never lost, and after countless interviews in which he set lofty goals for himself, the public backlash could be unlike anything we’ve seen in recent years.

Ahead of UFC 317, MMA Fighting’s Mike Heck, Damon Martin, and Alexander K. Lee peek into the future to see how Saturday’s results could reshape the legacies of the stars on the card.

1. What’s Ilia Topuria’s next move if he doesn’t win?

Heck: Probably the same as if he wins – he fights Paddy Pimblett.

From all accounts, Ilia Topuria seems to have taken the move to lightweight quite seriously, and as he recently said at his open workout press conference Friday, he feels like a new man at 155 pounds. And because of that, regardless of result, he’ll be sticking around past UFC 317. Of course, if he loses to Charles Oliveira, he will deal with short-term heat from the fanbase, but I don’t think he drops back down, and if he faces Pimblett in his next fight and wins, he’ll be right back to where he is now.

And while I feel like Oliveira is being overlooked by the community in a big way, I do feel Topuria wins on Saturday, and does so in a memorable fashion.

Martin: My esteemed colleague Mr. Heck has the correct option already figured out but allow me to throw out one more name just for the fun of it – what about Topuria vs. Dan Hooker?

The visuals of that fight would make us feel like we’ve returned to the best days of PRIDE Fighting Championships when freak show fights were just part of the show. Hooker stands 6-foot tall while Topuria comes in at just 5-foot-7 – the staredown alone would be worth it for this fight if it happens. Plus let’s be honest, Hooker has seemingly lost all the momentum he built after beating Mateusz Gamrot because he’s been injured and unable to compete since August 2024.

Obviously, Topuria would have another tough matchup at lightweight, but that’s going to happen no matter the result at UFC 317 so might as well keep him at the top of the division to see what he can do. So Topuria vs. Pimblett is the answer but keep Topuria vs. Hooker as a backup just in case.

Lee: Back to the desert for you, Mr. Topuria.

I know Topuria has been firm about not going back to 145 pounds, but to me that just sounds like him being his usual, endlessly confident self. He can’t imagine a scenario where he loses, so there’s no reason to consider looking back.

Oliveira is one of the greatest lightweights of all-time and there’s no shame in Topuria being blesses with his first L by “do Bronx.” That said, Topuria’s lightweight title chase has already been dimmed somewhat by Islam Makhachev departing the division. If he can’t get past his second choice? It could be a sign.

Topuria left unfinished business at featherweight, even with two of the most incredible title fight knockouts in the division’s history. Alexander Volkanovski, the man Topuria beat to become champion, reclaimed the vacant belt, so there’s a tantalizing rematch right there. And then there are fresh challengers in Jean Silva, Movsar Evloev, and Aaron Pico.

Let’s see him go back and clear out the division for real.

2. Should Topuria falter, does Alexandre Pantoja take the No. 2 spot on the Pound-for-Pound list?

Lee: Sure, why not?

On MMA Fighting’s Pound-for-Pound list, Alexandre Pantoja is tied for the No. 3 spot with bantamweight champion Merab Dvalishvili. In the event Topuria loses, and Pantoja logs his fourth straight title defense, let’s give him his due.

There has to be a penalty for moving up a division, it can’t just be a free Bingo square, so Topuria risks a bump down in my rankings unless his loss comes via an egregious robbery. And if Pantoja is his usually spectacular self, I’m more than happy to declare him the No. 2 pound-for-pound fighter in the world.

Whoa, looks weird actually writing it out, though.

Heck: He won’t on my list, but that’s not because he doesn’t deserve it – and also, he has a fight on this card against a dangerous guy in Kai Kara-France. As we know in this great sport of ours, when the cage door closes, anything can happen.

Realistically, Pantoja should win, and if he does, he will certainly move up a spot. Currently, I have Pantoja at No. 5 behind Islam Makhachev, Topuria, Dricus du Plessis, and Merab Dvalishvili. A win for Pantoja, and a Topuria loss puts him up to No. 4, but I can’t jump him above DDP and Dvalishvili.

Martin: Unfortunately not.

Pantoja is an incredibly talented fighter, and he’s doing his absolute best to eventually challenge Demetrious Johnson for the most successful title defenses in UFC history, but he’s likely to suffer the same fate as “Mighty Mouse” when he was champion and that comes down to level of competition.

During his current reign as champion, Pantoja has taken out Brandon Royval and Brandon Moreno – both high-quality wins – but then he beat Steve Erceg and Kai Asakura and neither of those guys are actually top flyweights. Sorry to say, Kara-France coming into the co-main event off an impressive one-fight win streak just isn’t getting the job done to really elevate Pantoja much higher on the rankings. This is the definition of a high-risk, low-reward fight for Pantoja so the best he can hope for is just maintaining his current spot or possibly jumping up one spot with Topuria faltering.

3. What’s the most intriguing fight outside of the main and co-main?

Martin: UFC 317 took a hit when Manel Kape suffered a foot injury that knocked him off the card, but then the promotion pulled a rabbit out of a hat with Joshua Van stepping up on short notice to face Brandon Royval. At 23 years old, Van appears to have everything needed to become a serious threat in the flyweight division, and while the scenario surrounding this fight isn’t ideal, it’s still a huge opportunity for him to vanquish a top foe and make a massive leap up the rankings.

As previously stated, Pantoja needs some new blood to challenge him and if Van can pull off the upset against Royval, he definitely qualifies. Plus, Van is just a blast to watch in the cage so let’s see what he can do against a proven contender like Royval, who also deserves a mountain of credit for even accepting this matchup on short notice. Just to top it off, this is a real early contender to steal Fight of the Night so don’t miss it.

Lee: Call me sentimental, but I want to know how much Beneil Dariush has left.

If anyone has lived a thankless existence at lightweight, it’s Dariush. Much of that is of his own making as he’s rarely pushed for the promotion to grant him a title shot or even a No. 1 contender fight, but every time I see the 16-year (!) veteran fight, I can’t help but think he was destined for more at some point. He turned 36 in May, you have to wonder if a third straight loss could mark his final fight.

OK, I’m probably unnecessarily eulogizing here. Maybe Dariush fights for another five years. I’m looking forward to him fighing Renato Moicano and you should too.

Heck: I’ll go off the board slightly and go with the main card opener between Payton Talbott and Felipe Lima.

I can’t lie to you, folks, I’m still puzzled by this one. The UFC was transparently giving Talbott the big push, but then he was taught a bit of a veteran lesson by Raoni Barcelos at UFC 311. I assumed the UFC would give him a lower-ranked guy to get some confidence back, but instead they matched him up with Felipe Lima, who has looked fantastic since coming to the UFC, and has done so up a weight class.

This fight is super interesting on paper, and from a stylistic perspective, but the fallout from it could be wild. What if Talbott loses? A lot riding on this one for the young man.