The 2025 edition of International Fight Week is here, and that means UFC 317 is upon us. Get yourself ready and in the know with another edition of MMA News staff fight predictions.
The event will be available exclusively on ESPN+ pay-per-view on Saturday, June 28. The main card will begin at its usual 10pm ET start time, with preliminary card action kicking off at 6:30pm ET.
The main event will see a new UFC lightweight champion be crowned, as former featherweight champ Ilia Topuria steps up in weight to take on former lightweight king Charles Oliveira. Topuria won the featherweight title at UFC 298 last year with a knockout of Alexander Volkanovski and defended it at UFC 308 by becoming the first man in years to finish Max Holloway. Oliveira, who comes into this bout off a win over Michael Chandler at UFC 309, defeated Chandler to become champion in another vacant title fight at UFC 262. He then defended it against Dustin Poirier at UFC 269 before losing the belt on the scales prior to UFC 274.
The co-main event, meanwhile, will see the flyweight title at stake as Alexandre Pantoja defends against Kai Kara-France. Since winning the title from Brandon Moreno at UFC 290, Pantoja has defended the belt against Brandon Royval (UFC 296), Steve Erceg (UFC 301) and Kai Asakura (UFC 310). Asakura, meanwhile, comes into this bout off a knockout of Erceg at UFC 305.
The main card will also see Royval in action against short-notice replacement Joshua Van (who just fought at UFC 316), Beneil Dariush take on Renato Moicano and Payton Talbott facing Felipe Lima.
UFC 317: MMA News Staff Predictions
With UFC 317 just a couple of short days away, Ryan Jarrell, Pranav Pandey, and myself (Thomas Albano) have provided our picks for the fights that make up the main card.
Below, you can check out the current leaderboard through six cards in 2025.
Pranav Pandey (17-10)Thomas Albano (16-11)
Ryan Jarrell (15-12)
And now, let’s take a look at everyone’s picks for UFC 317!
Bantamweight: Payton Talbott vs. Felipe Lima
Pranav Pandey: It’s hard to make a confident pick here, given how little we’ve seen from either fighter at the highest level. Talbott tasted his first professional loss in his last outing against Raoni Barcelos, and I expect him to come in sharper, having learned from that experience. That said, one glaring hole in his game stood out: his takedown defense, which could be a real liability in this matchup.
On the other hand, Lima looks like the real deal. “Jungle Boy” hasn’t lost in nearly a decade and brings a well-rounded, composed skill set to the table. He’s dangerous in all areas, but particularly effective on the mat. That’s where I see him having the clearest path to victory. If he can get Talbott to the ground, I believe he can control the pace and potentially dominate from top position. (Prediction: Lima)
Thomas Albano: Felipe Lima has caught some attention of late with his pair of victories in the Octagon thus far. And it’s enough of an impression that the UFC wanted to book him against Payton Talbott in a battle of young rising prospects. Talbott was shocked by Raoni Barcelos at UFC 311, and he needs this win to keep the momentum that he’s had going. The problem is Lima, a former Oktagon MMA champion, hasn’t lost since dropping his professional MMA debut.
Talbott has the height and reach advantage in this one, but if Lima can get on the inside and push the pace, how will he respond? He struggled against Barcelos, and Lima has shown he can adapt to either a high-paced brawl or a calculated, cerebral attack. My feeling is the more Lima finds holes in Talbott’s game and the more he scores takedowns, the better he’ll nullify Talbott’s offense and work his way toward a decision win. (Prediction: Lima)
Ryan Jarrell: This is a tough one to call for me. Felipe Lima is definitely more technically sound and has impressed me more thus far in his UFC run. Lima’s wins over Naimov and Johns were enough to lead me to believe he could fight for a title down the road. Obviously the UFC sees Star potential in Talbot, but this is a really tough matchup for him. I think Talbot learned some valuable lessons in his recent loss to Raoni Barcelos, but I’m not sure he has evolved enough to get past Lima. Give me Felipe Lima to use his footwork and striking en route to a UD win. (Prediction: Lima)
Consensus: 3-0 Lima
Lightweight: Beneil Dariush vs. Renato Moicano
Pranav Pandey: Both Dariush and Moicano are seasoned veterans who bring grit and experience into the cage. Moicano was gaining serious momentum before stepping in on short notice against Islam Makhachev. But prior to that, he had put together some impressive wins, and his dismantling of Benoît Saint Denis was a statement-making performance that showed just how dangerous he can be when he’s dialed in.
As for Dariush, I still rate him as a high-level lightweight. His eight-fight win streak wasn’t a fluke. But ever since it came crashing down in 2023 with back-to-back knockout losses, he hasn’t returned to action. That layoff, in my opinion, could be a real factor. The question is whether he can match the rhythm and urgency Moicano brings with his recent activity. I’m leaning toward Moicano here, but it won’t be easy. He’ll have to dig deep and weather some tough moments, because Dariush isn’t the type to go quietly. (Prediction: Moicano)
Thomas Albano: Two 36-year-old lightweight contenders. Two men who are looking to get back into the win column. Two men who were supposed to face off at UFC 311. And only one of them can come out on top and potentially rise up the ranks toward a crack at the gold.
Renato Moicano may have lost his last fight, but that was a title shot against Islam Makhachev that came on one day’s notice after Arman Tsarukyan withdrew. It was this fight that caused the cancelation of Dariush vs. Moicano the first time around. It may have been a one-sided loss, but that decision and hearty performance proved something fans of “Money” Moicano already knew – the man is game.
Dariush has been a lightweight contender for some time now, but he’s hit a couple of really rough patches of late. Dariush hasn’t fought since 2023, a year that saw an eight-fight win streak of his get snapped at the hands of Charles Oliveira, followed by a knockout loss against Tsarukyan. While these aren’t bad losses per say against the kind of competition he’s facing, a third straight loss is going to seriously hurt his contender status. And given the age of these two men, time is running out.
Unfortunately for Dariush, that might be his reality. Moicano having all of this momentum, combined with him being the better all-around product, leads me to give the nod his way. (Prediction: Moicano)
Ryan Jarrell: This should be a very fun fight and one the hard core fans are really looking forward to. I have become a huge fan of Moicano over his last few fights, and he is always money on the microphone. Dariush hasn’t fought since his ugly performance against Arman Tsarukyan in late 2023. I wonder if the time off and his age will play a factor in this fight against a much more active fighter in Renato. I think skill for skill these two are pretty even, but I do expect Moicano to land more significant strikes and be the aggressor throughout the fight and win it on points. (Prediction: Moicano)
Consensus: 3-0 Moicano
Flyweight: Brandon Royval vs. Joshua Van
Pranav Pandey: There’s something really intriguing about this matchup. First off, credit to Joshua Van for stepping up on short notice. That alone speaks volumes about his mentality. “The Fearless” is riding a wave of momentum right now, and while he’s still young, he’s already proven that he belongs among the division’s elite.
That said, Brandon Royval is no stranger to high-pressure situations. He’s been in deep waters with the best of the best and knows exactly how to navigate chaos. With his experience and ability to thrive in scrambles, I think “Raw Dawg” will be sharp enough not to leave any openings. If he stays composed and sticks to his rhythm, I see him getting the job done. (Prediction: Royval)
Thomas Albano: This is probably the fight I am seriously looking forward to on this card outside of the title fights. It’s also the one I’m having the most difficulty in picking, and apparently, I’m not alone given that these two men have near-even odds as of this point.
What we saw at UFC 316 earlier this month is exactly what makes Van so entertaining; he pushes the pace, is aggressive with his striking, and he’s not afraid to get in a brawl. And Bruno Silva was a battered victim of that in route to a third-round TKO, marking Van’s fourth straight win and 12th win in his last 13 fights. Royval has earned a following for a similar fight style, though he’s been a lot more strategic in his most recent outings against the likes of Brandon Moreno and Tatsuro Taira.
This is a no-risk matchup for Van; he’s already coming off one strong performance, and anything that comes out of this fight should just be a bonus. That said, even if this becomes a memorable slugfest, the all-around abilities of Royval and his experience should give him the edge here. (Prediction: Royval)
Ryan Jarrell: Josh Van has looked incredibly impressive as of late and definitely has the skills to be a top contender for years to come. But this seems like a bad idea to step up on very short notice against a legit top 5 fighter in the division, especially after just competing against Bruno Silva a couple of short weeks ago. I understand that if a great opportunity presents itself a lot of fighter’s want to jump all over it and hopefully capitalize. But Brandon Royval is a dangerous puzzle that you need a full camp to prepare for and I don’t see Van having much for him in this contest. Give me Royval to make a statement in this fight and put a halt to Van’s winning streak. (Prediction: Royval)
Consensus: 3-0 Royval
UFC Flyweight Title: Alexandre Pantoja vs. Kai Kara-France
Pranav Pandey: Kai Kara-France is a legitimate threat in the flyweight division. His striking is sharp, explosive, and he’s proven time and again why he belongs among the elite. I’ll admit I picked against him in his last outing, and he made me eat my words with that knockout over Steve Erceg. But as impressive as “Don’t Blink” can be, I truly believe that everything he does well, the champ Alexandre Pantoja can do better.
“The Cannibal” seems to level up with every title defense. Whether he’s trading bombs on the feet or dragging the fight into deep grappling waters, Pantoja thrives in chaos. He can absorb pressure and return fire with even more intensity. Stylistically, this feels like a tough puzzle that Kara-France just isn’t equipped to solve. I think Pantoja overwhelms him and runs right through. (Prediction: Pantoja)
Thomas Albano: I’m going to get tomatoes thrown at me for what I’m about to say, but I hope I am heard out. I completely buy Kai Kara-France as a legitimate contender in the flyweight division and challenger for the flyweight title. When it comes to being a champion, however, I just don’t see it compared to some of the other names at 125.
I love KKF’s strike-heavy fighting style, but I don’t know how it helps him against Alexandre Pantoja, who, in my opinion, continues to get better and evolve even as the defending champion of his division. KKF has struggled against the top names of this division, and keep in mind, Erceg received the title shot and fought KKF last year even when he was, and still is, toward the bottom portion of the top 10.
Pantoja has been an absolute dog. Bring the fight to the ground? He’ll go toe-for-toe with you there. Keep the fight standing? He’ll show you power and accuracy. Pantoja is a very underrated champion, who should be considered one of the best champs that the UFC has, in a division filled with solid talent that includes KKF, Erceg, Brandon Royval, and Brandon Moreno. And I see the Pantoja train continuing to roll on. (Prediction: Pantoja)
Ryan Jarrell: The flyweight Champion seems to look better and better every time he climbs into the octagon. Pantoja is on a seven fight win streak and is cementing himself as an all time great at 125 pounds. I must admit I was surprised to see Kara France put out Steve Erceg the way that he did. Kai definitely is very savvy and skilled on the feet, but even if he gets the champ in any trouble, the diversity of Pantoja’s game will be enough to win any scrambles and dictate where this fight takes place. Give me the champ to win this one rather handily and retain his title for the 4th time in a row. (Prediction: Pantoja)
Consensus: 3-0 Pantoja
UFC Lightweight Title: Ilia Topuria vs. Charles Oliveira
Pranav Pandey: Now this is a fight that has me counting down the days. We’ve got two certified finishers stepping into the Octagon, and I’d be shocked if this one even sniffs the judges’ scorecards. Topuria made a daring move by jumping up to lightweight. Some might even call it audacious, especially considering his more compact build compared to the division’s powerhouses. Still, I see him as someone who can rise to the occasion. “El Matador” possesses some of the cleanest and most precise boxing in the UFC today. He doesn’t just throw punches. He detonates them. His power is fight-ending, plain and simple. And while his wrestling hasn’t been tested much inside the Octagon, the glimpses we’ve seen suggest he’s more than capable if the fight hits the mat.
But let’s not get ahead of ourselves. Standing across from him is Oliveira, a savage finisher with a résumé full of elite-level fighters. While it’s no secret that “Do Bronx” owns arguably the most lethal submission game in UFC history, his striking is criminally underrated. He carries real knockout power in his hands and his body kicks slam into the midsection like sledgehammers that adds up quickly. That said, if Topuria can control the range, stay disciplined, and avoid getting tangled in Oliveira’s chaos, I can absolutely see him finding an opening and putting the Brazilian away inside three rounds. (Prediction: Topuria)
Thomas Albano: Yes, it’s not Ilia Topuria vs. Islam Makhachev. Yes, it’s disappointing. But Topuria vs. Charles Oliveira is still a matchup worth drooling over – and it’s going to become reality in just a couple of nights’ time.
I’m still not a fan of Topuria moving up in weight so quickly. Yes, he beat two of the featherweight GOATs last year. But this was something out of the Conor McGregor playbook; there was still a division full of solid contenders that includes Diego Lopes and Movsar Evloev. That said, I understand the appeal of this matchup for sure, and Topuria is a legitimate threat to become a world champion in a second weight class.
I know it sounds cliché, but this really sounds like the typical striker vs. grappler battle. We know how deep a threat Oliveira is in the ground game. That said, Topuria will look to keep distance and bring the power he’s brought in the lead up to becoming a world champion the first time around. And I think he has more to afford with being in Oliveira’s world on the ground than Oliveira has on the feet against Topuria and his striking. Maybe with others’ striking, but not with Topuria’s.
History will be made one way or another at the end of International Fight Week. I think it’ll be Topuria who is the one to do it. (Prediction: Topuria)
Ryan Jarrell: There is something special going on with the former featherweight champ. The parallels between Ilia and Conor at this stage of their careers are too similar to ignore. Topuria’s striking is a beautiful thing to watch and he always seems to dictate where the fight takes place. It would be a beautiful story to see Charles recapture the title again, but MMA is a brutal sport where the young typically eat the old. I believe Topuria puts on an impressive performance and beats the former champ via TKO at some point in round 2 or 3. (Prediction: Topuria)
Consensus: 3-0 Topuria
That’ll do it for our UFC 317 staff picks! What do you think? Do your predictions look similar? Let us know in the comments section!
Also, you can check out the full UFC 317 card below.
Main Card:
Lightweight Championship: Ilia Topuria vs. Charles Oliveira
Flyweight Championship: Alexandre Pantoja vs. Kai Kara-France
Flyweight: Brandon Royval vs. Joshua Van
Lightweight: Beneil Dariush vs. Renato Moicano
Bantamweight: Payton Talbott vs. Felipe Lima
Preliminary Card:
Middleweight: Jack Hermansson vs. Gregory Rodrigues
Featherweight: Hyder Amil vs. Jose Miguel Delgado
Women’s Flyweight: Viviane Araujo vs. Tracy Cortez
Lightweight: Terrance McKinney vs. Viacheslav Borshchev
Early Preliminary Card:
Welterweight: Niko Price vs. Jacobe Smith
Heavyweight: Jhonata Diniz vs. Alvin Hines
Middleweight: Christopher Ewert vs. Jackson McVey
