Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) returns with UFC 316, the Merab Dvalishvili vs. Sean O’Malley 2-led pay-per-view (PPV) event that wants you to believe O’Malley can pull off a miracle — and reclaim his bantamweight crown — against an opponent who already whooped his ass rather convincingly. We’ll find out this Sat. night (June 7, 2025) inside Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey, with Julianna Pena defending her 135-pound strap opposite Kayla Harrison in the UFC 316 co-main event, also scheduled for five, five-minute rounds.
That’s not all.
Kelvin Gastelum will look to reestablish his place among the middleweight elite by turning away the brick-fisted stylings of 185-pound power puncher, Joe Pyfer. Elsewhere on the card, longtime Bellator MMA veteran Patchy Mix makes his Octagon debut against the rough-and-tumble Mario Bautista, while Vicente Luque continues his welterweight adventures opposite hot-and-cold “Trailblazer,” Kevin Holland. I’m not sure that’s a lineup that commands a $79.99 price tag, but we’re likely to get a couple of fun fights out of the ordeal, regardless if you’re at home or suffering through the noise at Buffalo Wild Wings.
Let’s break down the UFC 316 PPV main card.
135 lbs.: UFC Bantamweight Champion Merab “The Machine” Dvalishvili (13-4) vs. “Suga” Sean O’Malley (18-2, 1 NC)
Merab Dvalishvili soundly defeated Sean O’Malley to capture the bantamweight crown atop the UFC 306 lineup last fall in Las Vegas, and like any rematch, we have to look at what went wrong for the loser and what’s changed since they last fought to argue for a different outcome.
And uh … all we got is “Well, Sean stopped smoking weed and quit social media.”
It’s not like O’Malley moved his camp to Dagestan and spent three years getting pummeled by the world’s best wrestlers before finally securing his rematch. No, he got hip surgery, watched Umar Nurmagomedov shit the bed at UFC 311, and went back into the gym with head coach Tim Welch to do exactly the same thing they did ahead of UFC 306.
Sans Instagram!
Henry Cejudo, an Olympic gold medalist, had no answer for Dvalishvili’s wrestling at UFC 298. Nurmagomedov was out-wrestled 7-2 in takedowns. Petr Yan was floored nearly a dozen times in his Dvalishvili fight at UFC Las Vegas but somehow O’Malley is going to transform himself in eight months, not including the time spent recovering from surgery.
How does scrapping weed improve your takedown defense?
Every fighter is beatable — including Dvalishvili. “The Machine” blanked Frankie Saenz in takedowns 11-0 and still lost a split decision at UFC Fresno. Ricky Simon played matador and strangled the incoming Georgian at UFC Atlantic City, so it can be done. It just hasn’t happened in over seven years and Dvalishvili has been facing the best bantamweights in the world on a consistent basis.
O’Malley is unquestionably the superior striker and has knockout power; but one of the big problems facing “Suga,” is that Dvalishvili’s unrelenting attack robs him of the ability to set up his strikes — and low kicks are practically out of the question against a wrestler of this caliber. The challenger’s long, lean frame makes him a fluid striker and also sitting duck. “The Machine” is simply too strong to be stymied by the standard sprawl (or wall defense).
Perhaps the promotion rebooked this bout so quickly because it wants to squeeze whatever juice is left from the O’Malley fig tree. You can also argue there is no one left to fight. Cory Sandhagen and Song Yadong are both ranked in the Top 5 but that could be a tough sell considering PPV events cost $79.99 plus a subscription to the ESPN+ digital network.
We can worry about that after UFC 316.
The facts are these: Dvalishvili is an unstoppable wrestler with otherworldly cardio fighting a flashy striker he already whooped eight months ago. There is absolutely no reason to think history will not repeat itself, unless “The Machine” does something stupid like abandon his wrestling and try to finish O’Malley on the feet, as promised back in April.
Not likely.
Prediction: Dvalishvili def. O’Malley by unanimous decision
135 lbs.: UFC Women’s Bantamweight Champion Julianna “The Venezuelan Vixen” Pena (12-5) vs. Kayla Harrison (18-1)
Julianna Pena has some of the worst striking I’ve ever seen in combat sports. Borderline embarrassing. And yet “The Venezuelan Vixen” is the bantamweight champion of the world, because Pena is able to compensate for her shortcomings on the feet with a ferocious ground attack, a granite chin, and five-round cardio. Outside of Amanda Nunes, there are no bantamweights with one-punch knockout power, including challenger Kayla Harrison, so Pena can afford to eat some punches to secure an advantageous position in the clinch, or against the fence, or even to set up a takedown.
Under normal circumstances.
Unfortunately for the champion, her strongest attributes are what carried Harrison to a pair of Olympic gold medals, as well as a world title under the PFL banner. Pena will not be able to bully Harrison or drown her in the championship rounds, even with the challenger’s daunting weight cut. And let’s face it, neither combatant feels comfortable on the feet so this one is going to be decided on the ground.
That’s bad news for Pena, who’s been out-wrestled five times in her UFC career.
We can’t overlook Harrison’s loss to Larissa Pacheco back in late 2022 and I’m sure Team Pena has been studying that tape. At the same time, claiming it “exposed” the Olympian feels like a copout in terms of criticism, because it undercuts the skills of Pacheco. Ask Cris Cyborg if she wants to rematch Pacheco after barely squeaking by her fellow Brazilian at “Battle of the Giants” last fall, a decision that broke Pacheco’s 10-fight winning streak.
Larissa belongs in UFC (again), but that’s a separate conversation.
I don’t see a path to victory for Pena outside of her stopping Harrison’s mug-and-slug attack and hoping the judges lean in her favor. I don’t want to go too crazy over her Pennington performance because it followed a two-year layoff, though it really doesn’t matter. Everything “The Venezuelan Vixen” does, Harrison does a lot better, almost like she’s Pena’s final form. I also think the challenger is angry after all that shit Pena was talking, so expect her to make a statement on Saturday night in “The Garden State.”
Prediction: Harrison def. Pena by submission
185 lbs.: Kelvin Gastelum (19-9, 1 NC) vs. Joe “Bodybagz” Pyfer (13-3)
Kelvin Gastelum has been a problem for a lot of big name fighters over the years and consistently over-performs when he’s the odds-on underdog, starting with his upset win to stymie Uriah Hall in The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) 17 finale back in 2013. Gastelum went on to retire Michael Bisping and nearly turned the middleweight division upside down with his UFC 236 performance against a prime Israel Adesanya. More importantly, at least for this contest, is that Gastelum has never been knocked out in 29 professional fights and has faced some heavy-handed sluggers along the way, including Jared Cannonier and Robert Whittaker, among others.
Even though he’s been competing inside the Octagon for over a decade, Gastelum is still just 33 years old. That makes him younger than several fighters in the UFC 316 lineup, including co-headliners Julianna Pena and Kayla Harrison. From the outside looking in, it would appear Gastelum never mastered the psychological components necessary to reach the pinnacle of the sport, evidence by his never-ending weight struggles and inconsistent performances. A trip back to welterweight ended with a submission loss to Sean Brady; which to be fair, is not anything to be ashamed of considering Brady is ranked No. 2 in the world, though I’m sure his rebound victory over Daniel Rodriguez at UFC Saudi Arabia convinced Gastelum that middleweight is where he belongs.
Joe Pyfer will look to prove him wrong in his quest to become a bona fide contender at 185 pounds. “Bodybagz” lost some of his shine when he got shut down by Swedish veteran Jack Hermansson atop the UFC Vegas 86 fight card back in 2024. That performance raised a couple of red flags (“fraud check” as the kids would call it) because Pyfer seemed to have no Plan B after failing to land the knockout blow. I’m not sure the former “Contender Series” standout needs to worry about getting picked apart by Gastelum, but the granite-chinned TUF champ does have other ways to frustrate Pyfer and shut down his heavy-handed offense. What happens after that is likely to determine the outcome of this fight, and don’t be surprised to see this bout decided by who lands the timeliest takedowns.
Pyfer strangled Abdul Razak Alhassan by way of arm-triangle choke at UFC Vegas 80 so he’s not the one-trick pony some fans make him out to be — and Gastelum has been tapped three times in his MMA career (including an arm-triangle choke by Chris Weidman). It’s hard to pick against Gastelum because he’s such a stubborn mule inside the cage, I just think the younger (28 year-old) Pyfer, even without the knockout punch, is going to be the busier striker. And even if he’s spending more time defending the takedown than working the body, he only needs to win two of the three rounds to go home victorious.
Prediction: Pyfer def. Gastelum by decision
135 lbs.: Mario Bautista (15-2) vs. Patrick “Patchy” Mix (20-1)
Bellator MMA finally collapsed under the weight of its own pointlessness and PFL, for reasons still not fully understood, swooped in with some of its Saudi funny money to pay for the funeral. As a result, some of the world’s best fighters not employed by UFC finally get a chance to strut their stuff on the biggest stage in combat sports, and it’s hard to see the addition of Patchy Mix as anything but a win for both parties. Let’s face it, the bantamweight division is about one or two fights away from being cleaned out by Merab Dvalishvili, so having Mix as a viable contender extends the shelf life of “The Machine,” at least in terms of public interest.
I’m sure there are reservations about how well Mix will perform outside the confines of the Bellator cage after watching Michael Chandler self destruct. In addition, Patricio Freire also made the jump at UFC 314 and came up short against Yair Rodriguez. To be fair, Rodriguez is ranked No. 4 in the world and “Pitbull,” who turns 38 in just a few weeks, was coming off a 13-month layoff. Mix, by comparison, is still competing in his athletic prime at 31 and brings a 20-1 record into the promotion with 15 finishes. More importantly, he’s paired off with the unranked Mario Bautista, who is certainly an established veteran after six years under the UFC banner, but not the caliber of opponent that would have Mix fans jumping ship.
The Brazilian is currently the -180 betting favorite and matches up to Bautista fairly evenly in both height and reach. Mix will be fighting southpaw against a switch stance for the UFC vet and this three-rounder is likely to come down to who has the better grappling. There’s no question Bautista has faced stiffer competition throughout his career, going toe-to-toe with top stars like Jose Aldo and Cory Sandhagen, I just don’t think the disparity is great enough to pick him based on that alone. I would, however, anticipate a very close fight with Mix taking home the “W” by getting the better of the frequent grappling exchanges.
Prediction: Mix def. Bautista by decision
170 lbs: Vicente “Silent Assassin” Luque (23-10-1) vs. Kevin “Trailblazer” Holland (27-13, 1 NC)
Longtime welterweight veteran Vicente Luque is 2-1 since returning from his year-long medical suspension, which came in the wake of his Geoff Neal loss at UFC Vegas 59. His bounce-back fight resulted in a decision victory over an old and shopworn Rafael dos Santos, a career lightweight, before the “Silent Assassin” was stopped by Joaquin Buckley at UFC Atlantic City. I was ready to write him off at that point, but Luque — still just 33 years old — rebounded with a submission victory over Themba Gorimbo at UFC 310 to close out his 2024 fight campaign. Luque has bagged nine post-fight performance bonuses over the course of his UFC career with four “Fight of the Night” honors. Win or lose, the Brazilian comes to fight and has endeared himself to even the most fickle fight fans over the years.
Like his UFC 316 opponent, Kevin Holland also has nine post-fight performance bonuses and is coming off a rebound victory of his own. Following consecutive losses to Roman Dolidze (UFC 307) and Reinier de Ridder (UFC 311), the 32 year-old “Trailblazer” outworked Icelandic assassin Gunnar Nelson at UFC London back in March. It seems like a zillion years since Holland was a fresh-faced recruit on Season 2 of Dana White’s “Contender Series” and across a span of seven years, Holland has racked up an incredible 25 fights with a 15-10 record. Offensively, the former Legacy Fighting Alliance (LFA) headliner can do it all. He’s got power in his hands, sneaky submissions, and championship cardio — leading to 22 finishes in 27 career wins. Unfortunately, his takedown defense is a major liability and one of the main contributors to his losses over the years.
That’s pretty much the story of this fight. Holland has a whopping 81-inch reach and stands four inches taller than Luque, which could turn their PPV curtain jerker into a shooting gallery for “Trailblazer.” The more likely scenario is that “Silent Assassin” defaults to his wrestling, like he did against Dos Anjos (Luque scored eight takedowns in that fight). That’s assuming the Brazilian doesn’t get seduced by Jersey’s Just Bleed’rs and in turn let his Holland contest devolve into a sloppy bar fight. If so, he’s getting KTFO.
I’m playing it safe for this pick.
Prediction: Luque def. Holland by submission
MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC 316 fight card RIGHT HERE, starting with the early ESPN+ preliminary card matches at 6:30 p.m. ET, followed by the remaining undercard balance on ESPN/ESPN+ at 8 p.m. ET, before the UFC 316 PPV main card start time at 10 p.m. ET on ESPN+ PPV.
To check out the latest and greatest UFC 316: “Dvalishvili vs. O’Malley 2” news and notes be sure to hit up our comprehensive event archive right here. For the updated and finalized UFC 316 fight card and PPV lineup click here.
