UFC 314 mailbag: Alexander Volkanovski as an all-time great, Paddy Pimblett rises, and Jean Silva arrives

UFC 314 is in the books, and Alexander Volkanovski is once again the UFC featherweight champion.

Volkanovski delivered a vintage performance against Diego Lopes on Saturday to claim the vacant featherweight title and become the first person older than 35 to win a belt in a weight class below 170 pounds in the UFC.

Also on Saturday, Paddy Pimblett broke through to the ranks of bona fide contender by beating the brakes off of Michael Chandler, Patricio Pitbull had a forgettable UFC debut, and Jean Silva made the most of his big moment. So let’s talk about all of it.

Curses

“Does Volk winning mean the 35+ curse is starting to lose validity, or is Volk just that special of a fighter, or is it just that he had a uniquely poor matchup tonight?”

Probably some combination of the three.

The biggest reason Volkanovski won on Saturday is that he is an exceptional fighter. Volkanovski is one of the 10 greatest fighters to ever lace up the gloves, and Saturday was confirmation of the fact because that wasn’t peak Volkanovski. But all the all-time greats are able to pick up meaningful wins over top opposition even after their primes are over.

But the second biggest reason Volkanovski won on Saturday night is that he is a nightmare matchup for Diego Lopes. I know everyone loves Lopes, and he is undeniably fun, but he is not a technical or tactical savant. Lopes wins fights by being big and dangerous and a bit wild, and that is not a good style to combat one of the greatest tacticians and technicians in MMA history. When Lopes was able to land, he hurt Volkanovski, but he’s a far cry from Ilia Topuria when it comes to footwork and depth of skills, meaning Volkanovski could simply weather the storm, and Lopes quickly ran out of ideas. If they fought 100 times, Lopes only wins a couple of them. He just doesn’t have the requisite skills.

As for the Over 35 Curse, it’s not a curse, it’s just a data point that speaks to a fact about sports and fighting in general: it’s a young man’s game. The older you get, the slower you get, and when your competition isn’t slowing down, that leads to one inevitable conclusion. But for every stat, there’s an outlier, and Volkanovski is now the one here. That’s a testament to him, even if it should be noted that this title has an asterisk because he didn’t beat the champ.

Records

“This performance by Volk was great, but he still looks beatable, which he never did pre Islam Makhachev.

“Do you foresee him having two more defenses to break Aldo’s record with what you saw tonight? Giant fan of his so I hope he does.”

First and foremost, two title defenses do not break Jose Aldo’s record. Aldo had nine consecutive title defenses; Volkanovski has five. He needs four more defenses to get there. I feel like this is a fact people forget (because the UFC actively tries to erase Jose Aldo’s significance for some reason), but he only has 7 UFC title defenses because the UFC didn’t have a featherweight division. But he was the champion of the WEC — which was owned by the same people as the UFC — before then and has nine title defenses. He also is the youngest champion in Zuffa history by this same principle.

Anyway, my guess is that Volkanovski does not get two more title defenses, though it’s not impossible. As mentioned above, I think Lopes was a uniquely great matchup for Volkanovski, and while he fought brilliantly, he still looked lesser than before. If Topuria comes back down, I would pick him comfortably to reclaim the belt, meaning Volkanovski is only champion by the grace of Topuria, and I don’t know how long that can even last.

That being said, Volkanovski does have the benefit of decent matchups ahead of him. It looks like Movsar Evloev will get the next shot at Volkanovski, and while Evloev is a good fighter, he’s not the sort of offensive dynamo that makes Volkanovski’s diminished durability a major concern. And the rest of the division is in flux, so maybe Volk sneaks in a Yair Rodriguez rematch or something. I’d say it’s possible.

GOAT discussion

“Featherweight GOAT.”

Check back later this week as we will do a deep dive on this topic, but the answer is simple: Jose Aldo has nine consecutive title defenses; Volkanovski has just over half of that. You can think Volkanovski is a “better” fighter than Aldo, but he undeniably has not accomplished more because very few fighters have. If he gets two more title defenses, we can start having the conversation.

Diego Lopes

“Although Lopes lost, is his stock higher than it’s ever been?”

No? I mean, his stock is still plenty high, but his stock was higher when half the MMA fanbase thought he was about to be champion. Now we saw Volkanovski take him to school on Saturday, and Lopes isn’t a spring chicken. He’s 30 years old, and there’s a whole new crop of featherweights coming. Lopes can’t rest on his laurels right now.

Paddy Pimblett

“Who would you like to see Paddy fight next? Should Topuria fight a top LW before fighting for the title? (…would a Paddy/Topuria no.1 contender’s fight make sense?)”

Before UFC 314, I was adamant that the winner of the Pimblett vs. Chandler fight would go on to fight Ilia Topuria, and while I still think that’s what should happen, I’m now doubtful it will. Because after Paddy’s performance on Saturday, it’s very possible to see him fighting for the lightweight belt one day, and if that’s the case, then the UFC probably wants to play for a Topuria vs. Pimblett title fight. So unless Islam vacates to move up to welterweight, that fight is getting held up. Which is a shame because if I had the pen, that’s the fight I’m making next.

But if that’s off the table, I’d like to see Pimblett take on Charles Oliveira. It’s no secret that I don’t think much of Michael Chandler, but the way Pimblett demolished him made me a believer in “The Paddy” as a legitimate title contender. As good as Charles Oliveira is, he didn’t run over Chandler like that in their rematch, and I’m now genuinely interested to see Paddy take on Oliveira. A few years ago, I’d have said that would be a sanctioned murder, but now I’m not nearly so sure.

Paddy vs. Ilia

“Am I crazy to think that Paddy’s size gives Ilia problems? Obviously I still would favor Ilia if they fought but Paddy manhandled Chandler who, though having the fight iq of a brick, still looks like he’s built out of them.”

Not at all. Again, like with the Oliveira fight, a few years ago I was certain that was an execution. Now, Pimblett can definitely win that fight. Topuria wasn’t an especially big featherweight, and while the world has collectively decided that size doesn’t matter and he should fight for the lightweight title, I’m here to tell you that’s not true. Size isn’t the only thing that matters but it’s damn helpful in a fist fight and Paddy will be massive compared to Topuria. Yes, Topuria is an elite fighter, but Pimblett has become one himself. I would still pick Topuria, but that’s suddenly a matchup I’m very interested in.

Patricio Pitbull

“Does Patricio losing to Yair in the unanimous way he did prove that the gulf in quality from PFL/Bellator to the UFC is larger than expected or was it just too late for him to make the move?”

It was just way, way too late for Pitbull to come over. Think about this: Michael Chandler made the move over at 34 and was still past his best. Pitbull is three years beyond that. Pitbull hasn’t been elite elite for a while. Honestly, Saturday more made me think Yair might be past it as well, given how uninspiring his performance was.

But no, the gap between the UFC and other promotions is real, but it doesn’t exist at the top end. The gap is in the middle class. The UFC has hundreds of great fighters. Bellator had dozens. But the top guys were all always elite. The same way they were elite in WEC and Strikeforce and Pride before.

Jean Silva

“Do you think Jean Silva needs 1 or 2 rounds to take the belt from Volk? Silva will pull the trigger where Diego didn’t.”

Look, man, Alexander Volkanovski is an all-time great and deserves our respect. But I’ve been as high on Jean Silva as anybody, and he’s even somehow exceeding my expectations. I genuinely thought Bryce Mitchell could trouble Silva on Saturday. Instead, that was one of the beatdowns of the year so far.

I don’t think Silva is the best fighter to come from the Fighting Nerds camp (Caio Borralho likely holds that distinction) but he is definitely my favorite, and with the featherweight division as open as it is right now, he has a real chance to vault into a title shot sooner rather than later. And this could just be blatant homerism for my boy “Lord,” but I think he’d have a great shot at beating Volkanovski.

Diego Lopes wasn’t close to winning on Saturday, but he did get Volkanovski in trouble a couple of times and simply didn’t have the tools to finish the drill. Not only does Silva have those tools, but he’s also better equipped to hurt Volkanovski in the first place. Silva has much craftier boxing and footwork than Lopes, is much quicker, and still hits like a truck. I think Silva could be a pretty tough matchup for Volkanovski, honestly.

However, he still has to get there, and there are no cakewalks at 145. I’d pick Silva to beat most featherweights, but it wouldn’t stun me if Lerone Murphy just out-teched him over 25 minutes. Or Evloev or Aljamain Sterling might have more success tackling him than Mitchell did.

If I’m the UFC, Silva is taking on Arnold Allen in a title eliminator this summer. And if he wins, Volk better watch out, because Lord is coming.

Thanks for reading and thanks to everyone who sent in tweets (Xs?)! Do you have any burning questions about things at least somewhat related to combat sports? Then you’re in luck because you can send your tweets to me, @JedKMeshew, and I will answer all the good ones! It doesn’t matter if they’re topical or insane, just so long as they are good. Thanks again, and see y’all next week.