UFC 313 roundtable: Has Alex Pereira finally met his match?

Alex Pereira was the man of the hour in 2024. Is his time up now that the calendar has turned?

The light heavyweight champion’s reign has been undeniably impressive, but few would argue he hasn’t benefited from defending against fighters with a limited capacity to take advantage of his grappling deficiencies. That won’t be the case in Saturday’s UFC 313 main event, when Pereira finally squares off with the streaking Magomed Ankalaev.

Though Ankalaev has put on several clinical striking performances, he’s shown he has wrestling in his back pocket, too, and that could be the key to solving the “Poatan Puzzle.”

MMA Fighting’s Alexander K. Lee, Mike Heck, and Jed Meshew put their heads together to envision what the end of Pereira’s hot streak might look like and what else to look out for at UFC 313.

1. If Alex Pereira loses this Saturday, how does it happen?

Lee: I’m all for keeping the martial arts apart, but Magomed Ankalaev should be mixing it like DJ Spinderella if he wants to dethrone Alex Pereira.

Sure, Ankalaev is a great striker and if he can catch “Poatan” and knock him out, it would vault him to another level of prestige. So there’s incentive for him to back up all of his tough talk and throw hands with Pereira. It’s just that he’s better served, uh, not doing that, and that’s how the fight should play out if he and his team have any sense.

That said, I actually think Ankalaev can end up with the best of both worlds here, using his wrestling to throw Pereira off to set him up for a KO/TKO later in the fight. To invert a cliché, Pereira’s reign will end with a bang, not a whimper.

Meshew: It would be completely crazy for Ankalaev to KO Pereira. Obviously, Pereira is the superior striker, but Ankalaev hits hard, MMA is weird, and Pereira isn’t a spring chicken. This is also his fourth fight in less than 12 months and there’s a reason champions don’t usually fight that frequently: it’s hard. That sort of pace can break you down in subtle ways so it could happen.

That being said, if Ankalaev wins, it’s because he’s not a moron. Striking with Alex Pereira is a bad idea unless you’re Israel Adesanya, and even then it’s 50/50. Pereira is a better defensive wrestler than many believe but he’s not Jose Aldo. If Pereira loses it’s because Ankalaev is the superior grappler and implements his will.

Heck: To show my hand, I’m picking Pereira, and I feel pretty good about it. But for the sake of the question, if Poatan sees his incredible run come to an end, Dana White is going to use the same line he used after Belal Muhammad dethroned Leon Edwards: “It wasn’t a barnburner.”

Ankalaev is really, really good, and if he can land takedowns early and often, he has a very good chance to win. But if he goes through with his promise to stay standing the whole time, it’s not going to go well for him. Should Ankalaev win, I don’t believe it will be a thrilling affair, and Pereira is on his back for 75 percent or more of the fight.

2. Can Justin Gaethje or Rafael Fiziev lay claim to a title shot in the new co-main event?

Heck: Let’s be clear about this: The answer should be absolutely not. But, this is the UFC, and this is 2025, and we’ve learned—especially in this division—availability is your best friend. So I’m not ruling it out, but it’s going to take something special, and a weird next few months for it to happen.

I don’t think Rafael Fiziev has much of a shot unless he absolutely obliterates Justin Gaethje with a Highlight of the Year contender. Gaethje, however, is in a great position with the UFC. Dana White loves him, and he should, because everyone else does and now he’s doing the promotion a favor. If he dominates the returning Fiziev, especially if he gets a finish, I won’t be shocked if Gaethje gets a title shot. The big question then becomes who would he fight? Because if Jack Della Maddalena beats Belal Muhammad at UFC 315, it won’t be Islam Makhachev.

Lee: Yup. Vacant.

I’m piggybacking off My Best Friend’s answer here, playing with the idea that “JDM” scores an upset victory in Montreal (sorry, Belal!), a result that clears the way for Makhachev to chase a second title at welterweight, and setting off a chain reaction of Muhammad moving up to middleweight (there you go, Belal!) and Topuria facing the UFC 313 co-main event winner for the vacant belt.

That sounds screwy as hell, but we’re set for a weird and wacky second half of 2025, so why not predict something dumb like Topuria vs. Fiziev for the lightweight title? Crazier things have happened and could happen. Jon Jones could fight Tom Aspinall. The PFL could generate positive PR in 2025. The GFL could actually schedule a show.

Let’s get crazy.

Meshew: No. That’s why this fight is kinda lame. If Fiziev wins, it’s a good win but he lost his previous two. That’s not getting a title fight. And if Gaethje wins, it’s a good win but he just got bolted by Max Holloway in one of the most memorable and iconic KOs ever. Neither man is fighting for the belt next (barring a lot of things happening). Instead this fight is a bout to see who fights Dan Hooker, which is what we already had, meaning we’re just treading water here.

AK is right in that if JDM beats Belal, Islam is immediately moving up to welterweight, so maybe that helps their case, but even then, it’s probably Topuria vs. Oliveira or Arman Tsarukyan.

This will be a fun fight that is ultimately meaningless, which kinda sucks given we only have a few Gaethje fights left, at most.

3. Outside of the top-2 fights, who is the fighter to watch for on this card?

Meshew: The fight to watch is Joshua Van vs. Rei Tsuruya because that’s certified sauce, but the fighter is my big-small son, Jalin Turner.

I have an irrational love of Turner because he’s a freakishly big lightweight with a unique and delightful game and huge deficiencies (you love people for their faults, not for being perfect!). Unfortunately, Turner is on a pretty tough run right now and so he’s fighting to hold his spot in the top-15 and so he needs to prove he’s still got the juice. Ignacio Bahamondes is a damn good fighter but I need Turner to go full Tarantula on him with the club and sub. I think he will and people will remember that Jalin Turner is a threat to anyone he steps in the cage with.

Heck: It’s Mauricio Ruffy.

This guy, much like his fellow Fighting Nerds Jean Silva and Carlos Prates, is much-watch TV. There won’t be any boring Ruffy fights, but how good is he? Is he a guy who will be of a Drew Dober-like ilk where we’re just pumped he’s fighting and at best he’s a backend of the top-15 kind of guy? Or is Ruffy a fighter we have to keep an eye on that can climb the ranks in the sport’s best division?

We won’t fully have our answer Saturday, but if he goes out there and runs over a veteran like King Green—who has spoiled many a party over the years—I know I’ll continue to lean more towards the latter.

Lee: People, it’s me. You know I’m picking an Ultimate Fighter winner.

Despite being tagged as a top prospect to watch on the Brazilian scene all the way back in 2021, Mairon Santos was inexplicably the second-to-last featherweight fighter picked on TUF 32. “The Legend” outpointed some stiff competition on his way to the finale, where he routed Kaan Ofli in a little over a round to claim a tournament title. Still a few months shy of his 25th birthday, Santos is currently in Las Vegas under the tutelage of Xtreme Couture mastermind Eric Nicksick and has all the makings of a promising featherweight prospect.

A showcase performance over Francis Marshall will put Santos on track for a big 2025 campaign and in the hunt for a top-15 spot in 2026.