UFC 308’s greatest betting props, parlays and picks | Topuria vs. Holloway

UFC 308 goes down this weekend (Sat., Oct. 26, 2024) from inside Etihad Area in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates. The pay-per-view (PPV) major occasion sees Featherweight champion, Ilia Topuria, making his first-ever title protection. His challenger is the “BMF” — and a few people’ Featherweight G.O.A.T. — Max Holloway.

UFC 308’s co-headliner options Robert Whittaker vs. Khamzat Chimaev. This was imagined to go down in Saudi Arabia earlier this yr; nonetheless, Chimaev pulled out the battle (despite the fact that it wasn’t in america). Hopefully, this one really occurs. Along with the main- and co-main occasions, we’ve received Lerone Murphy vs. Dan Ige, Shara Magomedov vs. Armen Petrosyan and Magomed Ankalaev vs. Aleksandar Rakic.

The hits hold approaching the “Prelims”, too. We’ve received Geoff Neal vs. Rafael dos Anjos, Abus Magomedov vs. Brunno Ferreira and Farid Basharat vs. Victor Hugo.

As at all times, there’s heaps to guess on this card and we’ve received odds for all of the fights under:

UFC 308 Foremost Card Cash Line Odds

Ilia Topuria (-245) vs. Max Holloway (+200)

The second happiest particular person on the earth when Topuria flattened Alexander Volkanovski (see it right here) was most likely Holloway. By unseating Volkanovski as Featherweight champion, “El Matador” opened the door for “Blessed” to get again within the title image.

Topuria’s sensational win over Volkanovski moved him to 15-0 (7-0) in UFC and adopted a call over Josh Emmett, submission over Bryce Mitchell and knockout over Jai Herbert (see it right here).

Holloway comes into this one off his “Battle/End of the 12 months” towards Justin Gaethje, which featured a second that may dwell on in MMA historical past (see it in all it’s glory right here). That super-fight for the BMF belt got here after Holloway retired Chan Sung Jung with a knockout in Singapore (see it right here). Earlier than that, Holloway bested Arnold Allen by resolution. These wins got here after Holloway misplaced his trilogy bout to Volkanovski and unsuccessfully challenged for the belt he misplaced to Volk again in 2019.

I’m shocked that Holloway is that this large of an underdog on this match-up.

Topuria has appeared lethal within the Octagon. His proper hook is a particularly potent weapon and his floor sport is punishing, each with strikes and an arsenal of chokes.

Nonetheless, that is Max Holloway, man.

Holloway hasn’t been this large of an underdog since he misplaced to Conor McGregor in 2013. He was +250 that night time. Future was on McGregor’s aspect throughout that point and Holloway was but to morph into the elite fighter we all know and love.

Holloway was a +155 underdog within the Gaethje match. He was a +160 canine in the newest Volkanovski battle. And +170 of their second battle. The one different UFC fights he’s had plus odds for had been his first fights with Jose Aldo and Dustin Poirier and his bouts with Cub Swanson, Andre Fili and Dennis Bermudez.

He’s 4-5 in these conditions.

Topuria had +115 odds when he beat Volkanovski. He was additionally +135 in his debut UFC win over Youssef Zalal. He’s been a decent-sized favourite in all his different bouts.

Topuria vs. Holloway seems like a recipe for a putting battle. Holloway lands a ridiculous 7.17 important strikes per minute and leads the promotion in each whole strikes landed and whole important strikes landed.

Topuria lands 4.4 important strikes per minute. That’s fairly common.

Holloway is second within the division for knockdowns landed (10). Nonetheless, he doesn’t crack the High 10 for knockdowns per quarter-hour. Topuria does, although (with 0.94).

These numbers, and the attention check, make it fairly clear that Topuria has the facility benefit towards Holloway. Although, we’ve seen Holloway’s relentless offense put on down many fighters and make them unable to compete, regardless of not knocking them down or getting the end over them.

In relation to accuracy, their stats are fairly related. Topuria’s is 46 % on important strikes (Holloway’s is 48 %). If all these two do is strike and each land at a charge that we’re used to seeing from them, we’ll have a race to see whether or not Topuria’s knockout blow will take have an effect on earlier than Holloway’s heavy pitter-patter strikes grind him down. If Topuria can climate Holloway’s storm then he could have an opportunity to land his proper hook.

If he does land it, although, will Holloway go down?

Holloway has by no means been stopped with strikes. That’s outstanding given the extent of competitors he’s confronted over his profession. His solely stoppage loss was a triangle to Poirier in his UFC debut in 2012.

Age cracks iron chins, although. However, what else is outstanding about Holloway? He’s solely 32. He’s older in battle years, positive. However his sensible strategy to coaching and sparring doubtless means he’s taken much less injury between fights than a lot of his ageing friends.

If Topuria is ready to land his greatest shot and Holloway retains coming forwards, we would see Topuria change techniques. He lands 1.92 takedowns per quarter-hour and has an above common accuracy at 56 %. Holloway’s takedown protection is elite at 84 %, although.

Regardless of his brief odds right here, I believe Topuria goes to battle with Holloway. I doubt he’ll be capable of end him together with his proper hook or hold him down lengthy sufficient to threaten with a choke. Due to that, I believe we’re going to see a five-round battle of principally putting. I believe Topuria will win this, although, maybe thanks to at least one or two takedowns throughout the battle.

However, it’s going to be shut.

I believe it’s additionally price asking a query about Topuria and distractions. Once I searched his identify in our picture database, I needed to wade via 30 pages of images to search out photographs of him really combating. The photographs in our database between now and his Volkanovski win are all pink carpet pictures or photographs of appearances in soccer stadiums or reverse politicians and dignitaries. I’m fairly positive Holloway’s simply been coaching an chilling together with his household.

The oddsmakers like a end on this battle. Beneath 4.5 rounds is -130 and Topuria by KO/TKO/DQ is simply +175. I don’t assume these strains present sufficient respect for Holloway’s talent or toughness.

I’m not assured sufficient in him to choose him for the upset. However, I do assume he can final all 5 rounds towards Topuria and that presents plenty of choices at plus odds.

Over 4.5 rounds is +100. Battle goes the space is +120. Battle to be received by unanimous resolution is +180. And Topuria by resolution is +250. Of all these, I like over 4.5 rounds (since that saves our butt if Holloway factors to the middle of the cage and these two go nuts with 10 seconds left).

Greatest guess: Over 4.5 rounds (+100)

Robert Whittaker (+205) vs. Khamzat Chimaev (-250)

If you’ll find a prop on whether or not this battle really occurs, I’d be serious about betting the ‘no’. Khamzat Chimaev has confirmed that he doesn’t deserve a number of belief on the subject of displaying up. A few of that appears past his management. He is perhaps an extended COVID sufferer. Nonetheless, his lack of exercise has shifted from notable to curious in the previous couple of years.

The final time we noticed him was when he took a majority resolution over Kamaru Usman simply over a yr in the past. It’s a must to return one other yr for his battle previous to that one, his simple d’arce win over Kevin Holland (see that right here). In combating Holland in September 2022 (on the night time he was imagined to battle Nate Diaz) Chimaev managed to battle twice in a yr for the primary time since 2020 (when he blew onto the scene with three stoppage wins).

As a result of we’ve seen so little of him within the final 4 years, the parable round Chimaev nonetheless considerably exists. Loads of folks nonetheless imagine he can smesh anybody within the division and that he’s a champion in ready. Nonetheless, he turned 30 in Could. He’s not peaking, athletically, anymore. And if his lungs or “immunity” are in dangerous sufficient form to hamper his capability to battle then we could have already seen his ceiling. It’s so exhausting to know that, although, as a result of he not often ever competes!

There’s actually sufficient query marks for me to not simply assume he can stroll via Robert Whittaker.

Whittaker beat-up Ikram Aliskerov just like the dude owed him cash after they met in Riyadh in June (see it right here). That adopted a unanimous resolution over Paulo Costa and his TKO loss to Dricus Du Plessis. Since 2014 Whittaker has solely misplaced to current and future Middleweight champions (Du Plessis and twice to Israel Adesanya).

This battle is all in regards to the takedown and whether or not Chimaev will be capable of hit it repeatedly on Whittaker. Chimaev makes an attempt a number of them. His accuracy is 46%, which has been adequate for 3.99 takedowns per quarter-hour.

Towards Usman he went 4-12 on takedowns. Usman had a takedown defensive ranking of over 90% after they fought. He went 2-3 on takedowns towards Gilbert Burns. Burns takedown protection is 53%.

Whittaker has an 83% takedown protection. Du Plessis took him down as soon as on one try. The one different fighter he’s confronted at Middleweight who makes use of takedowns as some extent of emphasis was Yoel Romero, who solely succeeded 4 occasions on 18 makes an attempt (22%) again in 2017.

I believe Chimaev could possibly get Whittaker down a a couple of times, however not on repeat. For me that makes a submission much less doubtless. I do assume there might be a end on this battle, although. Whittaker hits like a truck, however can also be there to be hit. Chimaev hits exhausting, too, however we’ve not seen his chin actually examined.

Probably the most Chimaev has ever been hit was throughout his battle with Burns the place he gave up 119 important strikes (89 to the pinnacle). Burns is an effective boxer, however he doesn’t have battle altering/ending energy. Whittaker does, although.

This battle is simply too near name for me, however I do really feel like this battle is perhaps heading for a call, partly as a result of I imagine Chimaev is perhaps in decline.

The over/beneath is 2.5 rounds with -110 for the over and -120 for the beneath. This can be a 5 spherical battle and I believe these two could spend the primary spherical feeling one another out. Due to that I really feel like this whole is a little bit low. I believe this battle sees a 3rd spherical, at the very least, and I like the percentages you will get on that.

Greatest guess: Battle to Begin Spherical 3 – YES (-140)

Lerone Murphy (-240) vs. Dan Ige (+195)

Lerone Murphy appeared wonderful final outing, overwhelming Edson Barboza for the most effective win of his profession. Dan Ige is coming off a weird state of affairs the place he changed Brian Ortega to battle Diego Lopes on battle day. Ige held his personal towards Lopes, however I believe a part of that was all the way down to Lopes having a little bit of an off night time (because of the unusual circumstances across the battle).

Murphy placed on a spread combating masterclass towards Barboza after they met and tagged him with 220 important strikes, with 78% of them going to the pinnacle. It didn’t take lengthy for his relentless left jab, adopted by a piston like proper, to take the steam out of Barboza and permit him to cruise to a 5 spherical victory. Murphy was additionally a beast within the clinch throughout that battle, too.

If he fights like that towards Ige, I believe he’ll have a number of success. He was capable of beat Barboza in a spread battle regardless of having a two inch attain drawback. He’ll have a two inch benefit over Ige. He’s additionally barely taller, too, which might assist in the clinch.

Murphy additionally used takedowns within the Barboza battle, going 4-6 and utilizing them to punctuate rounds. Ige has good takedown protection, however he’s executed his greatest work towards Bryce Mitchell and Nate Landwher in that respect. I believe he would possibly battle to defend towards Murphy’s takedowns, who makes use of them after establishing his putting. Murphy ought to be capable of occupy Ige’s thoughts with evading punches after which use that to arrange his takedowns.

Greatest guess: Lerone Murphy by way of unanimous resolution (-115)

Magomed Ankalaev (-390) vs. Aleksandar Rakic (+290)

Ankalaev is an enormous favourite towards Rakic. Final outing, he melted Johnny Walker with an uppercut (see it right here). Previous to that, he had that bizarre “No Contest” with Walker and the sleep-inducing draw with Jan Blachowicz. Previous to these outcomes he was on a nine-fight win streak with wins over the standard suspects at Gentle Heavyweight. The one loss on his document stays the Hail Mary submission Paul Craig caught him with in his UFC debut.

Rakic is coming off a technical knockout loss to Jiri Porchazka (see it right here). Earlier than that, he was out for round two years due to a knee harm suffered in his battle towards Jan Blachowicz (see it right here). Rakic had crushed Thiago Santos and Anthony Smith earlier than that battle. Previous to these wins his misplaced a break up resolution to Volkan Oezdemir (a theft by the judges).

I actually don’t like this match-up for Rakic. I’m unsure he can stand up to Ankalaev’s energy on the toes, not to mention on the bottom.

I believe we’re both going to see Ankalaev get a technical knockout win or 30-27 scores throughout the board. The purpose unfold covers that for us.

Greatest guess: Magomed Ankalaev -3.5 (-150)

Shara Magomedov (-160) vs. Armen Petrosyan (+135)

Magomedov improved to 14-0 together with his workman-like win over Michel Oleksiejczuk in August. “Shara-Bullet” appeared respectable in that bout, chipping away at Oleksiejczuk from vary and being considerably measured together with his flashy stuff. This was a tailor made opponent for his fashion, although, somebody who would kickbox with him for 3 rounds.

He’s been given the identical form of opponent this time round, too. Armen Petrosyan solely makes an attempt 0.22 takedowns per quarter-hour and has only a 33 % success charge.

Petrosyan is coming off a primary spherical submission loss to Rodolfo Vieira in February (see it right here). Earlier than that, he took a call over Christian Leroy Duncan.

That is going to be one other showcase battle for Magomedov and his boosters will probably be hoping to see him end Petrosyan. I don’t assume that’s going to occur, although. Petrosyan has good protection on the toes. He absorbs simply 2.90 sig. strikes per minute and has a 56 % important strike protection.

He held Duncan to simply 59 important strikes and most of these had been leg kicks. Solely 23 of these strikes landed on his head. He additionally held Gregory Rodrigues to simply 61 important strikes after they met.

Along with doubting that Magomedov will cease Petrosyan, I additionally assume Petrosyan will be capable of take at the very least a spherical off Magomedov. That makes the purpose unfold very interesting.

Greatest guess: Armen Petrosyan +3.5 (-175)

UFC 308 ‘Prelims’ Beneath Card Odds

Geoff Neal (-310) vs. Rafael dos Anjos (+245)

Each Neal and dos Anjos are coming off very powerful assignments. Neal is coming off losses to Ian Machado Garry and Shavkat Rakhmonov. Dos Anjos is coming off losses to Mateusz Gamrot and Vicente Luque.

There’s questions over how a lot both of those guys have left within the tank.

Neal has a ton of measurement on the previous Light-weight champ. He’s three inches taller and has 5 inches of attain over him. I believe Neal will be capable of impose his putting sport on this bout. Dos Anjos will need this bout to hit the bottom, however I believe he’ll battle to get it there. Neal has an 87 % takedown protection and he shutout Belal Muhammad after they fought again in 2019. Solely him, Demian Maia and Gilbert Burns have managed to try this.

Dos Anjos has been completed earlier than, by the quick fingers of Rafael Fiziev (see it right here) and Eddie Alvarez. Neal’s received good energy and hand velocity, so he would possibly be capable of get dos Anjos out of there.

On DraftKings you’ll be able to guess “To Win by End,” which voids the guess if there’s a call. I like that play right here.

Greatest guess: Geoff Neal To Win by End – YES (+165)

Myktybek Orolbai (-330) vs. Mateusz Rebecki (+255)

Orolbai had a barn-burner of a battle reverse Elves Brener final outing. He was harm in that battle however was capable of intestine out a call. That took his professional document to 13-1-1 and stretched his UFC document to 2-0. His different Octagon win was a neck crank over Uros Medic (see it right here).

Rebecki is coming off horrible beating he took from the fingers of Diego Ferreira. Ferreira dominated Rebecki on the toes in that battle and received with a late technical knockout (see it right here). Rebecki was a -500 favourite in that bout.

He had been unbeaten in UFC previous to that with an armbar on Roosevelt Roberts (as a -625 favourite) and a knockout over Loik Radzhabov (as a -155 favourite). He made his correct UFC debut as a -800 favourite and beat Nick Fiore by way of unanimous resolution.

Orolbai has an enormous eight-inch attain benefit over Rebecki. He could have the sting within the putting, however I believe a number of this battle will happen on the bottom.

Each these guys have nice floor video games so we might see a number of enjoyable exchanges right here. Orolbai is the extra dogged wrestler, executing a loopy 7.44 takedowns per quarter-hour. Rebecki is extra choosey and scientific together with his takedowns (75 % accuracy). I favor Orolbai within the match-up, as a result of I believe he’ll be capable of harm Rebecki with strikes and that may make issues simpler for him on the bottom.

I believe we’re heading for a end, although.

Greatest guess: Beneath 2.5 rounds (-115)

Abus Magomedov (-140) vs. Brunno Ferreira (+120)

Ferreira is a nasty man. Final outing he blasted Dustin Stoltzfus with a spinning elbow for a primary spherical knockout (see it right here). Earlier than that, he obliterated Phil Hawes with a flying knee (test it out right here). Earlier than that, he was knocked out himself by a Nursulton Ruziboev counter (see it right here). And earlier than that, he KO’d Robocop Gregory Rodrigues (see it right here).

The Brazilian brawler is 12-1 and but to see spherical three, let alongside the judges.

Magomedov is coming off a call win over Warlley Alves. That win got here after he was nicely crushed by each Caio Borralho and Sean Strickland.

Magomedov could have a six-inch attain benefit over Ferreira. That is perhaps a motive for these betting strains. I’m not involved by that, although. He’s had a attain drawback towards everybody he’s KO’d in UFC. His spinning and leaping assaults might give the relatively stiff and hittable Magomedov a number of bother right here.

Greatest guess: Brunno Ferreira moneyline (+120)

Kennedy Nzechukwu (-800) vs. Chris Barnett (+475)

Nzechukwu will make his UFC Heavyweight debut in Abu Dhabi. He’ll face Barnett now, after each Marcos Rogerio de Lima and Justin Tafa pulled out. Nzechukwu strikes up in weight after a break up resolution loss to Ovince Saint Preux and a technical knockout defeat to Dustin Jacoby (see it right here).

Barnett is returning after a two-year absence. He was imagined to battle Junior Tafa two weeks in the past, however pulled out resulting from Hurricane Milton.

We final noticed Barnett when he stopped Jake Collier in a battle the place he got here in too heavy for Heavyweight.

The beneath is the play right here. Nzechukwu has solely been to a call 5 occasions in 17 fights, whereas Barnett has seen the judges simply 9 occasions in 31 fights.

Greatest guess: Beneath 1.5 rounds (-130)

Farid Basharat (-850) vs. Victor Hugo (+500)

Basharat is coming off a unanimous resolution win over Taylor Lapilus in January. That’s an excellent win, particularly with how good Lapilus has appeared since then. That win took him to 12-0 and 3-0 in UFC.

Hugo received his UFC debut in April with a unanimous resolution over Pedro Falcao.

Basharat is the largest favourite on the cardboard and I see no motive to doubt him right here. DraftKings solely has the moneyline and whole rounds guess on this battle. I believe Basharat most likely takes a unanimous resolution victory right here.

Greatest guess: Over 2.5 rounds (-238)

Rinat Fakhretdinov (-270) vs. Carlos Leal (+220)

Carlos Leal is coming in on brief discover for Nursulton Ruziboev. He’ll be making his UFC debut on the Etihad. His profession has principally been spent in PFL. Rinat Fakhretdinov took a break up resolution over Nicolas Dalby at UFC Saudi Arabia earlier this yr.

All we’ve is the moneyline. I believe Leal is a good underdog, however I lean towards the favourite given the extenuating circumstances.

Greatest guess: Rinat Fakhretdinov moneyline (-270)

Ibo Aslan (+100) vs. Raffael Cerqueira (-120)

Ibo Aslan trucked Anton Turkalj with a 3rd spherical overhand proper to win his UFC debut in March (see it right here). That adopted a primary spherical technical knockout win on Contender Sequence. He’s received all 13 of his professional victories (technical) knockout.

Raffael Cerquiera is a 34-year-old UFC debutante. He’s by no means fought outdoors of Brazil. He’s been given a shot on the large present after dropping two Contender Sequence opponents to accidents.

I’m a little bit puzzled by these strains. Aslan appears to have a far increased ceiling than Cerquiera.

Greatest guess: Ibo Aslan moneyline (+100)

Ismail Naurdiev (-170) vs. Bruno Silva (+125)

Silva has been via the ringer in his UFC profession. He’s 4-5 within the promotion and on a 3 battle dropping skid. Final outing he misplaced a watch poke induced technical resolution to Chris Weidman (see it right here). Earlier than that he misplaced a call to Shara Magomedov and was choked out by Brendan Allen (see it right here). He was additionally one of many first victims served as much as Alex Pereira (although he escaped their battle with a unanimous resolution loss).

Naurdiev fought for the UFC in 2019 and 2020, getting wins over Michel Prazeres and Siyar Bahadurzada. He was launched after a loss to Sean Brady. He has been in Courageous CF since then. He’s spent most of his profession as a Welterweight. He received his Middleweight debut in his final battle (in December).

Silva is 35 and I anticipate him to drop a fairly forgettable battle towards the hometown favourite right here.

Greatest guess: Ismail Naurdiev moneyline (-170)

UFC 308 Lengthy Photographs!

Right here’s a few lengthy pictures for these people who wish to put a little bit on one thing that may include an enormous return.

Max Holloway to win by break up/majority resolution (+1100)

Topuria is younger in his championship reign. And, although, we noticed him take the belt from an awesome, within the type of Volkanovski, he’s nonetheless relatively untested. Holloway is the definition of battle-tested. There’s a nice probability this battle goes to a call and if it does, why couldn’t Holloway sneak it on the scorecards? That line appears huge for one thing which doesn’t appear too far out the realms of potentialities.

Max Holloway vs. Ilia Topuria – Battle to finish within the final 10 seconds of spherical 5 – YES (+7500)

There’s been some chatter between these two about whether or not we’ll see a throw down within the heart of the Octagon. Topuria has instructed they do it to begin the battle. Holloway has mentioned Topuria hasn’t earned such a callout from him. If this battle goes lengthy, then perhaps Topuria does sufficient to encourage Max to level to the middle of the cage when he hears that final ten second warning? If it occurs it might open Holloway up for Topuria’s crushing proper hook.

Shara Magomedov vs. Armen Petrosyan – Level to Be Deducted – YES (+2000)

I’m nonetheless fascinated with the dangerous beat I had when Jason Herzog refused to deduct some extent from Magomedov for a blatant fence seize. “Shara Bullet” continues to be nutty so the purpose deduction guess continues to be in play. Hopefully, we get Chris Tognoni on this battle (he deducted some extent from Jake Hadley for a watch poke final weekend).

Keep in mind that MMAmania.com will ship LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow protection of all the UFC 308 battle card proper right here, beginning with the ESPN+ “Prelims” matches on-line, that are scheduled to start at 10:00 a.m. ET, earlier than the pay-per-view (PPV) major card begin time at 2 p.m. ET (additionally on ESPN+).

To take a look at the newest and best UFC 308: “Topuria vs. Holloway” information and notes make sure to hit up our complete occasion archive proper right here.