After a slam-bang weekend of abroad motion, courtesy of “Moicano vs. Saint Denis” in Paris, Final Combating Championship (UFC) will return to the pay-per-view (PPV) marketplace for the upcoming UFC 307 blended martial arts (MMA) extravaganza, locked and loaded for this Sat. night time (Oct. 7, 2024) inside Delta Heart in Salt Lake Metropolis, Utah. Main the cost would be the promotion’s “Golden Goose,’ Alex Pereira, as he appears to be like for an additional entry into the spotlight reel hall-of-fame. Hoping to play spoiler is hard-hitting “Conflict Horse,” Khalil Rountree Jr., who is aware of a factor or two about starching adorned kickboxers.
Earlier than that five-round championship showdown will get underway, newly-crowned bantamweight titleholder, Raquel Pennington, appears to be like to spoil the return of former 135-pound champion Julianna Pena. The winner might transfer on to battle Kayla Harrison in early 2025, assuming the Olympic gold medalist can blast her well beyond veteran bantamweight Ketlen Vieira. As well as, Jose Aldo will make his Octagon return reverse red-hot Mario Bautista, whereas Roman Dolidze tries to win his second straight towards hot-and-cold middleweight “Trailblazer” Kevin Holland, streaming stay on ESPN+ PPV.
Who wins and who loses? Let’s attempt to determine that out under.
205 lbs.: UFC Mild Heavyweight Champion Alex “Poatan” Pereira (11-2) vs. Khalil “Conflict Horse” Rountree (13-5, 1 NC)
Alex Pereira is the star UFC wanted … proper when it wanted him.
For those who’re don’t perceive why “Poatan” is getting favorable matchmaking within the type of Khalil Rountree Jr., a middling mild heavyweight who’s by no means shot a takedown in his whole UFC profession, then maybe you don’t perceive the enterprise of prize combating.
What number of PPVs do you suppose Magomed Ankalaev will promote to informal followers, who (sorry, elitists) are the lifeblood of the PPV enterprise? About as many as Merab Dvalishvili, or maybe even much less, contemplating Ankalaev has the character of a carpet beetle.
Listed below are your present UFC champions:
Alexandre PantojaMerab DvalishviliIlia TopuriaIslam MakhachevBelal MuhammadDricus Du PlessisAlex PereiraJon JonesZhang WeiliValentina ShevchenkoRaquel Pennington
Brutal.
All respect as a result of each champion in every respective weight class, however exterior of Jones, who’s solely competed as soon as over the past 4 years, there’s not lots to work with right here by way of field workplace bucks. So sure, Pereira is getting particular therapy and to be trustworthy, he is earned it. “Poatan” has racked up 5 predominant occasion title fights in lower than two years and in contrast to another “stars,” doesn’t let damaged toes preserve him off the cardboard.
Now that we bought that out of the best way, let’s transfer on.
Pereira, 37, bought off to a shaky begin in his transition to mild heavyweight, squeaking previous Jan Blachowicz with a break up resolution victory at UFC 291. Then his subsequent win over Jiri Prochazka at UFC 295 was overshadowed by a potential early stoppage. What adopted had been two definitive finishes over Jamahal Hill (UFC 300) and Prochazka (UFC 303) to silence the critics, although “Poatan” will possible have to get previous Ankalaev to be referred to as one of the best fighter at 205 kilos.
There’s not lots to deconstruct right here, as Pereira is pretty one-dimensional. The previous two-division kickboxing champion is a various striker with a monster left hand, however has the bottom sport of a new child calf. You may discuss his questionable chin or his incapability to cease the takedown, two legitimate criticisms, but when they had been such liabilities, then Pereira wouldn’t be 8-1 in UFC with six brutal knockouts.
The champion is a -520 betting favourite towards +390 for the challenger.
Khalil Rountree Jr. was an early favourite to win Season 23 of The Final Fighter (TUF) solely to falter within the stay finale, dropping a judges’ resolution to the since-departed Andrew Sanchez. “The Conflict Horse” has been up-and-down for many of his UFC profession however is at present having fun with his most profitable run so far, racking up 5 straight wins with 4 knockouts. To not downplay these finishes however his opponents have been … not nice. Karl Roberson and Chris Daukaus are a mixed 0-10 throughout their final 10, getting completed in eight of these 10 losses. As well as, Anthony Smith and Dustin Jacoby have each misplaced 4 of their final six, which implies his solely opponent with extra wins than losses throughout that streak was Modestas Bukauskas.
Is that our greatest argument for a championship upset?
Crushing Gokhan Saki deserves to be talked about, simply as long as we additionally point out that Pereira is 4 inches taller than “The Insurgent” with an extra six inches in attain, big distinction makers when evaluating an all-standup affair. It additionally seemed as if Saki spent a complete of eight minutes coaching for that struggle, based mostly on his physique and total disposition.
The 34 year-old Rountree Jr. is a harmful fighter with heavy palms and fights like he’s bought 24 hours to stay. If I awakened on Sunday morning and skim that “Conflict Horse” scored the KO upset, I in all probability wouldn’t be shocked. On the identical time, he’s priced accordingly on the moneyline as a result of Pereira is the superior striker with a deeper resume. The protected decide is Pereira by knockout, who ought to reward the promotion for what on paper, seems to be a simple layup.
Prediction: Pereira def. Rountree Jr. by knockout
135 lbs.: UFC Bantamweight Champion Raquel “Rocky” Pennington (16-8) vs. Julianna “The Venezuelan Vixen” Pena (11-5)
Raquel Pennington is hard as nails, a grizzled veteran who can outwork most different bantamweights and stroll by way of any and all incoming hearth not launched by Amanda Nunes. Would I take into account her to be elite, championship materials? In all probability not, however I can also’t punish “Rocky” for her energy of schedule, or lack of high tier opposition — that blame falls on the promotion. Pennington does every thing good and nothing nice, and to her credit score, has received six straight over some fairly powerful outs. My concern for this title protection, her first since outpointing Mayra Bueno Silva again in January, is how simply she’s stifled by wall-and-stall (Holly Holm at UFC 246). As well as, Pennington was effortlessly outwrestled by Jessica Andrade — a significantly smaller fighter — of their first struggle at UFC 171, in addition to their UFC 191 rematch.
Wrestling and wall-and-stall are the challenger’s bread-and-butter.
Not that Pena is especially expert in both space however what units her aside is her insane tempo and unending cardio. “The Venezuelan Vixen” strikes like a blindfolded six grader attempting to bust open a birthday piñata and lands much less strikes than she throws (47%). Once more, it’s extra her quantity and strain than talent, which helped topple an exhausted Amanda Nunes at UFC 269. Working towards her is the truth that Pena has not competed in over two years, because of accidents and private setbacks. How that impacts her at age 35 is unknown, so we will solely function below the idea that we’ll be seeing the identical high-octane bantamweight we’ve been accustomed to since graduating TUF 18 greater than a decade in the past.
Pennington will not be simply completed and holds a number of UFC information, like complete strikes and vital strikes landed. However she additionally holds information for complete fights (17), resolution wins (10), and longest common struggle time (4:17:33). That’s the reason her strike depend is so excessive — her fights stick with it eternally (or so it feels generally). I don’t count on that to alter tomorrow night time in “The Beehive State” because the grapple-heavy Pena pushes, pulls, and drags her strategy to a ho-hum sweep on the judges’ scorecards.
Prediction: Pena def. Pennington by resolution
135 lbs.: Jose “Junior” Aldo (32-8) vs. Mario Bautista (14-2)
Jose Aldo fought out his UFC contract on the UFC 301 PPV earlier this 12 months in Brazil and proved (as soon as once more) towards a youthful, more energizing opponent that he was nonetheless a power to be reckoned with at 135 kilos. We didn’t understand what it meant on the time, however “Junior” is the one fighter in UFC historical past to clean Merab Dvalishvili on takedowns, leaving the long run 135-pound champion 0-16 on all 16 makes an attempt. Aldo was additionally the extra correct puncher throughout that struggle however dropped the choice on quantity, his solely loss throughout his final 5 fights courting again to summer time 2020. The knock towards the previous featherweight kingpin is that he hasn’t completed a struggle in over 5 years and appears snug cruising to the playing cards, win or lose. Luckily for Aldo, he’s going through an opponent who’s coming off back-to-back resolution victories over Da’Mon Blackshear and Ricky Simon. I say “luckily” as a result of these combatants signify the majority of Mario Bautista’s UFC profession, with all eight of his wins coming over opponents who usually are not ranked within the division High 15.
This can be a main step up in competitors for Bautista, who’s seven years youthful than Aldo and competing within the prime of his MMA profession. Losses to Cory Sandhagen and Trevin Jones — each finishes — stick out like a sore thumb on Bautista’s document, although you could possibly argue they had been a number of years prior and he’s lengthy since improved, evidenced by six straight wins. The previous Combate International competitor is a robust offensive wrestler averaging greater than two takedowns per struggle. Contemplating how properly Aldo stuffs takedowns, I’m undecided that’s going to matter a lot tomorrow night time in Salt Lake Metropolis — although capturing for takedowns will also be used to disrupt rhythm and mess with an opponent’s timing, no matter whether or not or not they land. The massive concern right here is Aldo’s cardio at excessive altitude, roughly 4,300 ft above sea stage. Compounding the issue shall be his minimize all the way down to 135 kilos which is doable, however definitely not simple, particularly at age 38. Is that sufficient to select Bautista, a -140 betting favourite? In all probability not for me, however I’m anticipating the identical Aldo we noticed at UFC 301, who might or might not present up on struggle night time.
Prediction: Aldo def. Bautista by resolution
135 lbs.: Kayla Harrison (17-1) vs. Ketlen “Fenomeno” Vieira (14-3)
Kayla Harrison returns for her second struggle below the UFC banner and it’s no secret that Harrison, a two-time Olympic gold medalist, is being positioned for the subsequent bantamweight title shot. It nearly occurred again in late 2021 however Julianna Pena upset Amanda Nunes and ruined Harrison’s shot at switching groups (extra on that debacle right here). Harrison went again to PFL and suffered the primary lack of her skilled profession, a unanimous resolution defeat to longtime Brazilian nemesis Larissa Pacheco — an opponent Harrison already defeated twice previous to their third (and what seems to be ultimate) assembly. There’s not a lot to say about Harrison that isn’t already widespread data. The judoka is a world-class athlete who can compete for 25 minutes with out batting an eyelash, is stronger than most girls in her weight class, and has bear-trap grappling; which means, as soon as she locks on, you’re not getting out. The one knock towards Harrison is her placing, which isn’t as dangerous as her detractors declare (in comparison with her friends) however definitely a legal responsibility in a struggle towards a seasoned striker.
Ketlen Vieira has two knockouts in 14 wins, so I don’t suppose Harrison is shedding a lot sleep.
The Brazilian bantamweight, a proficient judoka in her personal proper, is seated one spot above Harrison at No. 2 within the 135-pound rankings. No query Vieira might steal the subsequent division title shot with a large upset, I simply wrestle to seek out her path to victory. “Fenomeno” solely has three losses in her skilled profession however all three have come throughout the final 5 years and he or she was completed by Irene Aldana at UFC 245. I’m undecided I need to construct the case for an upset based mostly on her ho-hum resolution win over Pannie Kianzad at UFC London, which occurred properly over a 12 months in the past and served as her most up-to-date UFC struggle (because of accidents). With Harrison’s UFC debut out of the best way, she’s prone to hit second gear towards Vieira. I don’t need to say it’s going to be a totally one-sided struggle however … wait, sure I do. It is going to be fully one-sided. Harrison, a -950 betting favourite, goes to mug her, slug her, and lock up a fight-ending submission, then name for a bantamweight title shot in her post-fight speech.
Prediction: Harrison def. Vieira by submission
185 lbs.: Roman “The Caucasian” Dolidze (13-3) vs. Kevin “Trailblazer” Holland (26-11-1)
Roman Dolidze jumped out to a 6-1 document in UFC and located himself as excessive as No. 8 within the official middleweight rankings. What adopted had been back-to-back losses to Marvin Vettori and Nassourdine Imavov, which cooled his momentum and booted “The Caucasian” from the division High 10. Then got here a robust efficiency towards former mild heavyweight title challenger Anthony Smith and Dolidze is again on everybody’s radar, although whether or not or not he stays there might depend upon his efficiency towards Kevin Holland at UFC 307. Because it stands, the 36 year-old Georgian is a +130 underdog towards -170 for “Trailblazer.”
Holland is hard to determine. Generally he appears to be like like an distinctive middleweight who could make a severe run on the high of the 185-pound division, then different instances he seems to be punching the clock and phoning it in from bell to bell. The promotion loves “Trailblazer” as a result of he’s one of the vital energetic fighters on the roster, racking up 22 appearances over the past 4 years and by no means combating lower than 3 times per calendar 12 months. His most up-to-date look ended with an armbar victory over Michal Oleksiejczuk at UFC 302, marking seven straight wins by the use of knockout or submission.
Count on Holland to be the busier fighter and he ought to make good use of his five-inch attain benefit. The equalizer on this contest shall be Dolidze’s wrestling, as a result of Holland has putrid takedown protection. Luckily for “Trailblazer,” nonetheless simply 31 years previous, “The Caucasian” has been identified to be a frustratingly sluggish starter with low output, problematic for a three-round struggle towards versatile combatant with an iron jaw. Until Dolidze spams takedowns early and sometimes, I count on Holland to type on him for a sweep throughout the judges’ scorecards.
Prediction: Holland def. Dolidze by resolution
MMAmania.com will ship LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow protection of your complete UFC 307 struggle card RIGHT HERE, beginning with the early ESPN+ “Prelims” matches at 6 p.m. ET, adopted by the remaining undercard steadiness on ESPNN/ESPN+ at 8 p.m. ET, earlier than the PPV predominant card begin time at 10 p.m. ET on ESPN+ PPV.
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