UFC 304 roundtable: Will 2 divisions be turned the wrong way up in Manchester?

UFC 304 has the possibility to dramatically change the course of two divisions.

Atop the cardboard, Leon Edwards goes for the third protection of his welterweight title when he meets Belal Muhammad in a grudge match three years within the making. Neither man has misplaced a battle in years, however one thing has to provide after they collide in Manchester, England, on Saturday.

The co-main options MMA’s true No. 1 heavyweight Tom Aspinall defending an interim title towards Curtis Blaydes. Like Edwards vs. Muhammad, it is a runback of a bout that had an unsatisfying end. Can Aspinall set issues proper after shedding to Blaydes through damage the primary time round, or will Blaydes make it 2-0 towards Aspinall and switch the highest of the heavyweight rankings the wrong way up?

MMA Preventing’s Alexander Okay. Lee, Mike Heck, and Jed Meshew sit down for a spot of tea and to speak in regards to the many questions looming round considered one of 2024’s greatest pay-per-view lineups.

1. How does the Leon Edwards vs. Belal Muhammad grudge match play out?

Heck: Leon Edwards wins, however he’ll have to carry on tight to do it.

Belal Muhammad is without doubt one of the most underrated fighters within the sport proper now, and completely doesn’t get sufficient credit score for the run he’s on. He’s the deserving man who ought to get this chance. The issue is that Edwards is only a extra well-rounded fighter who has home-field benefit and an excellent greater chip on his shoulder.

Don’t get it twisted: Muhammad wants this one far more than Edwards does. That is one-and-done for Muhammad. If he loses, there won’t be one other UFC title shot coming his manner. On high of that, followers will actually “Keep in mind the Title” if he loses as a result of all of his wild predictions for this battle, and, to be honest, his considerably disregarding of the champion as a troublesome problem. Should you assume Jamahal Hill is having a troublesome 12 months, it could possibly be even worse for Muhammad if he doesn’t depart Manchester with the title as a result of the web by no means forgets.

So far as the query goes, my prediction is Edwards wins a unanimous determination. The champion begins sturdy, wins the primary two rounds cleanly, and wins the third, though Muhammad beneficial properties some momentum. Spherical 4 goes to the challenger, and Spherical 5 is the game-of-inches stanza. In the long run, Edwards will get a pair of 48-47s and a 49-46 to notch one other protection of his belt

Meshew: Leon Edwards wins in traditional, uninspiring Leon Edwards vogue. However that’s OK as a result of generally we have to eat our greens.

Edwards is sort of definitely the fighter with the largest delta between how good they’re and the way thrilling their fights are. He’s among the many easiest pound-for-pound fighters on the earth, and but he solely has two memorable highlights in his whole profession: The Kamaru Usman head kick (all-time nice) and when Nate Diaz nearly completed him within the closing minute of their battle. Not nice, Bob!

And the truth is that Edwards is so good as a result of he’s boring. He doesn’t wish to have thrilling fights. He desires to regulate tempo and vary and decrease threat. He fights like late-career Georges St-Pierre solely he by no means had a Matt Serra kind of loss to push him towards a safety-first mentality. It’s merely who he’s — a person who’s exceptionally expert and proficient however who won’t ever, ever put the pedal down, even in fights he ought to.

So on Saturday, Edwards will come out and set the tone early with stance switches, double jabs, and physique kicks. He’ll management vary and pivot and fully stymie the linear offense of Muhammad. He might even rating a takedown or two if the chance presents itself. And Belal might be caught perpetually behind. He doesn’t have the footwork, ability set, or uncooked athleticism to hassle Edwards, so he’ll merely fall behind in each spherical and doubtless lose 49-46 on all of the scorecards. Then, having efficiently eaten our leafy greens at UFC 304, we will transfer on to much more appetizing choices like Shavkat Rakhmonov.

Lee: Name me loopy, I feel these two give us a Combat of the Yr candidate.

I’ll cease wanting anticipating Edwards and Muhammad to ship a front-runner for 2024’s greatest bout, however they may find yourself on the brief listing after 25 minutes of high-level martial arts wizardry. Edwards wants the fitting dance accomplice to carry out one of the best in him and Muhammad suits the invoice along with his newfound aggression, technical acumen, and real animosity for the champ. In 17 UFC appearances, Edwards has by no means earned a Combat of the Evening award. What higher time than now to win his first in entrance of a rabid English crowd.

Historical past tells us this end result is unlikely — Muhammad has additionally by no means been a part of a Combat of the Evening — so I perceive the trepidation that a big swath of battle followers felt when this was booked because the UFC 304 principal occasion. 5 rounds of Edwards vs. Muhammad. “Blahhhhhh,” they mentioned, collectively. (I’m paraphrasing.)

Edwards might be boosted by his first title protection on dwelling soil although, and Muhammad will battle like a man who isn’t going to problem for the title once more if he loses. (As a result of he gained’t!) That’s a recipe for an entertaining contest, as a result of there gained’t be a lot room for both fighter to play it secure, as they’re so typically criticized for. It’s time to play to win, to not not lose.

Edwards takes a call in a five-round thriller that has the gang roaring.

2. What occurs to the heavyweight division if Curtis Blaydes wins?

Heck: This can be a great query as a result of not sufficient folks consider that is even an choice, and I’m right here to let you know, it completely is one.

Like Muhammad, that is Curtis Blaydes’ one and solely shot to put on a UFC belt. If he loses to Tom Aspinall on Saturday, he turns into a kind of barber store kind of subjects the place we glance again on his profession and ask ourselves, “Man, might he have gained the title if he gotten his likelihood sooner?”

And if Blaydes does win? Then I actually don’t know. Even Blaydes has to know that I’ve a greater likelihood of combating Jon Jones than he does. The very best he can hope for as that Jones fights Stipe Miocic, wins, retires, and the UFC promotes Blaydes to undisputed champ.

What he ought to do is name out Alex Pereira, both manner.

Meshew: If Blaydes wins? Jon Jones then retires as Heavyweight Champion for Life™.

Significantly, the UFC has little interest in Blaydes being heavyweight champion. His model just isn’t probably the most charming and he’s by no means been nice on the mic (although he’s enhancing). So if Blaydes wins, the FIRST factor that may occur is Dana White will go to the post-fight press convention and instantly go on an unprompted rant about how Jon Jones is the best fighter who has ever drawn breath.

Then White will quadruple down on the Stipe Miocic battle and everybody might be like, ‘Positive, we all know Jon gained’t battle Curtis, so no matter at this level.’ Then Dana might be compelled to e book Blaydes vs. Alexander Volkov 2 for the interim heavyweight title and also you would possibly see him cry precise tears of anger. However relaxation assured that belt will stay interim. If Jones fights Miocic and wins and retires, White might merely by no means hassle to raise Blaydes to undisputed champion.

In spite of everything, he waited for six months for Khabib to return again and Khabib isn’t even the best fighter God ever conceived of. I determine Dana might be keen to berate media members about Jon’s greatness for not less than two full years earlier than lastly giving up the ghost.

Lee: Jon Jones formally turns into the No. THREE greatest heavyweight on the earth.

*smirk emoji*

OK, Jones jabs apart, Blaydes profitable might legitimately be a grim situation for the UFC. That’s to not take something away from Blaydes, who has valiantly battled again from powerful losses time and again to lastly get a shot at gold, however it’s by no means felt just like the promotional machine is behind him regardless of him being an elite heavyweight and a fighter recurrently trusted to headline playing cards.

It’s simply that Blaydes has no hook, no chutzpah. That doesn’t imply he has no persona, solely that he doesn’t have the type of persona that Joe Blow MMA Fan is instantly intrigued by. Blaydes will maintain the heavyweight division chugging alongside and possibly that’s sufficient, however he’ll additionally find yourself being unfairly blamed for the inevitable decline of the burden class’ star energy as soon as Jones and Miocic grasp up the gloves following their matchup (even when Jones doesn’t retire instantly, that call can’t be far off).

That is presupposed to be a showcase second for Aspinall and I doubt the UFC has a contingency plan if Blaydes spoils the social gathering. Very best situation, it seems Blaydes has put all of it collectively for actual and he spends the subsequent couple of years stringing collectively a record-breaking run of not less than 4 heavyweight title defenses to carry credibility — if not huge field workplace — to his reign and stability to the division.

Like it or not, the Blaydes period could possibly be about to start.

3. Who has the potential to steal the present?

Heck: The Bobby … I’m sorry, King Inexperienced vs. Paddy Pimblett winner is the proper reply, however I’ll go together with Molly McCann as a result of she has the proper matchup to take action.

No disrespect to Bruna Brasil, however she’s on this battle for a cause. When UFC matchmakers wish to ensure a consequence has a excessive proportion likelihood of occurring, they’re nearly as good because it will get in setting the proverbial desk. McCann regarded like a world-beater towards Diana Belbita in her strawweight debut, and Brasil is coming off of a call loss — one through which I assumed she dropped all three rounds — to Loma Lookboonmee. Brasil is 1-2 in UFC together with her lone octagon win coming towards Shauna Bannon, who has some potential however definitely didn’t look UFC prepared. To not point out, Brasil can get acquired, and McCann has proven she will be able to ship a highlight-reel end in entrance of a raucous U.Okay. crowd.

McCann has an amazing likelihood of being a top-three star of this card when the mud settles.

Meshew: Mike is right in regards to the right reply, however I additionally don’t wish to take that low-hanging fruit so I’ll go together with Manel Kape.

There are only a few folks increased on Muhammad Mokaev than I’m (although Mike could also be considered one of them), however even I can admit that if he wins, nobody will care. (Mokaev is correct there within the operating with Edwards for fighter with the largest hole between ability and talent to be fascinating.) But when Kape wins? Completely different story.

First off, the way in which Kape wins this battle might be by doing one thing gnarly. Of his 19 profession wins, 16 have come by end and he’s combating somebody who just isn’t particularly adept within the hanging realm. If “Starboy” goes Tremendous Saiyan with a flying knee or one thing, it’s going to be dope.

Plus, Kape and Mokaev are very probably combating for a flyweight title shot, and a rematch with Alexandre Pantoja in Brazil is a monster battle for Kape. We’re speaking Brazil vs. Portugal, with Kape additionally being an ideal heel and foil for Pants. The No. 1 story popping out of UFC 304 is most certainly going to be across the co-main occasion winner, however No. 2 might simply be Kape as the subsequent man up for 125-pound gold.

Lee: With the low-hanging fruit nonetheless unpicked, I’m glad to wax poetic about Inexperienced vs. Pimblett.

This was the matchup to make after Inexperienced dominated Jim Miller at UFC 300 and everyone appeared to realize it. Even Pimblett admitted {that a} matchup with the soon-to-be 50-fight veteran was within the playing cards, a logical subsequent step for “The Baddy” after his three-round nod over fan favourite Tony Ferguson this previous December. If Pimblett is ever to change into somebody resembling a contender, he has to grind out these powerful matchups.

Not solely does beating somebody like Inexperienced give Pimblett some severe avenue cred, he’ll additionally find yourself with an extended sought-after quantity subsequent to his title. Inexperienced is at the moment No. 15 in UFC’s official light-weight rankings and Pimblett slides proper into that slot with a win. Pimblett followers, that is your second.

Or not. As a result of if Inexperienced sparks Pimblett or wins a clear-cut determination at hand him his first UFC defeat, it’s going to dominate headlines for the subsequent week or so. Relying on when Pimblett fights once more, the fallout from the loss might linger even longer.

Inexperienced has all the time been one huge second away from a Jorge Masvidal-esque rise to fame — and possibly, like Masvidal, he kickstarts this late-career surge with a KO of a brash Scouser.