Alexandre Pantoja is coming house.
When Pantoja steps into the octagon for Saturday’s UFC 301 foremost occasion in Rio de Janeiro, he’ll be the primary Brazilian champion to defend their title of their house nation since Amanda Nunes fought Raquel Pennington in Might 2018. That was a triumphant night time for Nunes, and Pantoja’s crew absolutely expects the identical, however is shock challenger Steve Erceg set to play the last word spoiler?
MMA Combating’s Alexander Ok. Lee, Jed Meshew, and Mike Heck collect on the roundtable to debate the ripples an Erceg win may create within the UFC timeline, plus what else to search for on a low-key pay-per-view providing.
1. The place would a Steve Erceg title win rank among the many very unlikely runs to a belt?
Meshew: First off, who the (Mike) Heck is Steve Erceg? I do know a Vincenzo Erceg, UFC flyweight contender and the satisfaction of Western Australia, however I’ve by no means heard of this Steve fellow. And let’s be trustworthy, a “Steve” Erceg may by no means win a title. Vincenzo Erceg — or “Vinnie Cigs” as the children know him — now that man is a really possible champion as a result of legal guidelines of nominative determinism.
Second, as a result of I’m a capital-J Journalist, I crunched the numbers to provide you a precise reply. Within the fashionable UFC, 4 fighters have managed to win a title of their first 4 fights within the promotion, not together with fighters who received inaugural titles (suppose Carla Esparza off The Final Fighter or Ronda Rousey being declared UFC champion from Strikeforce): Zhang Weili, Brock Lesnar, Jiri Prochazka, and Alex Pereira. And it’s fairly secure to say that checklist, Vinnie is probably the most unlikely potential champion.
Brock had nearly no MMA expertise however he was the most important star within the promotion, so his path to the title was extraordinarily possible. Related for Pereira who had such a built-in story with then-champion Israel Adesanya that everybody knew it will occur. Prochazka and Zhang are totally different tales in that they didn’t enter with a built-in ticket to a title shot, however each had been already among the many greatest on the planet of their weight lessons and had substantial help behind them. None of that is true for Erceg.
Till Erceg made his UFC debut 10 months in the past, a overwhelming majority of the MMA world didn’t know who he was. Even after he beat David Dvorak to earn a prime 15 rating, most individuals nonetheless didn’t. Actually, I’m unsure folks know who he’s now. But when he pulls this off on Saturday, the person might be an in a single day sensation 10 months within the making.
Lee: It will be a stunner. However 5 years down the highway, it may not be with the advantage of hindsight.
Erceg debuted within the UFC with little fanfare at UFC 289 in June 2023, stepping in on brief discover for Matt Schnell at UFC 289 earlier than KO’ing Schnell 9 months later (in between was a choice win over Alessandro Costa I’m betting few keep in mind). “Astro Boy” is as unassuming a fighter as you’ll discover, and at the same time as he’s continued to construct a 12-fight win streak, our eyes can’t fairly imagine what we’re seeing.
Welcome addition to the flyweight roster? Positive. UFC title contender? The place did that come from?
However the UFC wanted a Brazilian champion to headline its return to Rio and Alexandre Pantoja wanted a challenger who he hadn’t already overwhelmed a number of instances, so in steps Vinnie Cigs. Pantoja is understandably a snug favourite heading into his second title protection, holding wins over just about each notable flyweight within the prime 10. So if Erceg is being despatched out as a sacrificial lamb for the sake of a house crowd pop, then so be it.
I simply suppose there’s an excellent probability Erceg is the actual deal. By that I imply, not solely may Erceg pull off the upset, he may rattle off a couple of title defenses of his personal. So I’m dishonest and leaving this reply open for now, as a result of we’d find yourself trying again at this unimaginable capper to Erceg’s first 4 UFC fights and realizing it was solely the start.
Heck: It must be fairly excessive up there, proper? Matt Serra getting there off of a actuality present after which beating Georges St-Pierre within the largest upset of all-time has to take the No. 1 spot, however good ol’ Vinnie Cigs may actually discover his face on the Mt. Rushmore of unlikely UFC title runs.
As I’ve mentioned 1,000,000 instances on varied exhibits, meritocracy doesn’t matter within the UFC — at the very least, for probably the most half — however availability can oftentimes be your greatest good friend. Steve Erceg has achieved the whole lot he’s wanted to do. He’s overwhelmed ranked opponents and has completed fights in spectacular style, plus he did so with impeccable timing attributable to the truth that Pantoja wanted a dance associate.
Whereas this can be excessive up on the unlikely runs checklist now, one thing tells me a future roundtable — possibly even later this 12 months — may have an identical query. Why? As a result of availability is your greatest good friend.
2. Which Brazilian fighter may have the most important second?
Heck: This can be a powerful query with so many on the cardboard, and whereas the simple reply is Pantoja, the vibes proceed to inform me we could possibly be in for a surprising conclusion at UFC 301. So, I’ll take the following chalky reply and go along with “The King of Rio.”
When Run This City hits the audio system, the sector will come unglued. And whereas Jonathan “The Silence Behind the Violence” Martinez is a stable expertise, Jose Aldo has made his hay in defeating fighters who’ve an unimaginable leg kicking sport. Not solely is he generally known as The King of Rio, he’s the King of the Legkickers as effectively. I imagine he will get his hand raised in, what is going to possible be, his last UFC battle.
Meshew: The one potential reply for that is Jose Aldo.
Pantoja could also be headlining the cardboard, however this entire ships sinks with out Aldo there to juice the group up. To say Aldo is beloved in Rio is like saying Conor McGregor is “form of common” or Jon Jones is “just a little scared” of Tom Aspinall — it understates the purpose to absurdity.
To steal a phrase from Paddy Pimblett, win or lose, Aldo is “going to blow the roof off the gaffe!” And good god keen, if he truly wins — maybe in highlight-reel style — then he can soar the fence and be paraded round Farmasi Enviornment on the shoulders of his countrymen. Lastly, the storybook ending one of many true all-time greats deserves.
Lee: Aldo has the possibility to do one thing particular, however there’s part of me that’s all the time going to be hesitant to get too excited a few fighter coming back from a supposed retirement strictly for enterprise causes. (Aldo is finishing the final battle of his UFC deal so he’s free to doubtlessly return to boxing.) So I’ll go in a special path right here.
If Aldo is the hero most followers within the constructing might be cheering for, the vast majority of jeers might be geared toward Ihor Potieria, a.okay.a. “The Shogun Slayer.” Let’s not overlook the UFC’s most up-to-date go to to Rio didn’t simply finish on the down be aware of Jamahal Hill beating Glover Teixeira. Earlier than that, the illustrious profession of Mauricio Rua got here to a harsh finish when Potieria completed him with strikes in a preliminary bout after which proceeded to have a good time in a way that didn’t endear him to the native crowd.
You’ll be able to wager the chants of uh vai morrer might be loud and clear when Potieria makes the walkout for his battle with Michel Pereira, to the purpose that they might need to beef up safety. As a result of make no mistake about it, Pereira is out to avenge Shogun, and if he doesn’t get it achieved within the cage, it may get ugly in these streets.
Pereira is the consummate showman and if he can model his solution to a knockout of Potieria, he’ll be probably the most celebrated Brazilian on the cardboard, even when Pantoja and Aldo are triumphant.
3. What’s your sleeper storyline for UFC 301?
Lee: Now that I’ve hinted at a best-case situation the place the highest Brazilian names on the cardboard all creator memorable moments, let’s take a look at the flip facet: What if that is UFC 283 over again?
I’ve already talked about the Shogun letdown from the January 2023 occasion (and hopefully won’t ever point out it once more after this week), however don’t overlook that night time additionally ended with beloved champions Glover Teixeira and Deiveson Figueiredo shedding their championships in humbling style. To say these disappointments solid a pall over that present can be an understatement.
Can Rio take one other hit like that? Town will all the time welcome the UFC with open arms, however will probably be a more durable promote sooner or later if Pantoja’s ignored title battle ends in a loss and if Martinez spoils Aldo’s return. Anthony Smith stifling Vitor Petrino? Potieria rubbing one other win within the followers’ faces? Paul Craig handing Caio Borralho his first UFC loss? It’s all in play.
Quite a lot of Brazilian stars had been already unable to compete on this card due to Dana White and co. stacking UFC 299 and UFC 300, so followers on this MMA hotbed are possible already feeling just a little chilly. In the event that they don’t see a couple of favorites get their hand raised, White could need to wait a few years earlier than coming again.
Heck: I’m certain folks know the place I’m going right here, and you’ll be proper. As traditional, these questions normally come all the way down to, “The place is the who-is-more-for-real battle on the cardboard?” And for me, it’s the light-weight bout between 26-year-old up-and-comers Elves Brener and Myktybek Orolbai.
Lightweights, am I proper?
This battle completely guidelines. Each of those guys have great upside, and they’re ending machines. Brener had a robust case for MMA Combating’s 2023 Rookie of the Yr award after going 3-0 in 2023. He began with an enormous upset of Zubaira Tukhugov at UFC 284 in his octagon debut, then added two large knockouts towards Kaynan Kruschewsky and — in a brilliant spectacular win — Guram Kutateladze. This man is de facto good, however he’s about to get a big-time check towards a man the hardcore MMA followers have been ready for to get his shot.
Orolbai returns to his most popular weight class, however he has the potential do injury at welterweight, as proven by his short-notice UFC debut neck crank submission of Uros Medic. Orolbai has great grappling chops, however he additionally hits like an absolute truck, and there’s a mystique and aura about him that claims, “He simply could be that man.” We’ll actually discover out on Saturday on this fantastically matched preliminary bout.
Meshew: You need a sleeper storyline? I’ll offer you a sleeper storyline. I’ll go so deep of a sleeper we’re speaking Rip Van Winkle comatose right here: Is Karolina Kowalkiewicz combating for a title shot?
“What?!” you say. “That’s ridiculous!” Is it? Have you learnt who at the moment has the longest successful streak within the UFC strawweight division (apart from Tatiana Suarez, whose streak has a four-year hole in it)? That’s proper, Kowalkiewicz! She’s tied with champion Zhang Weili at 4. And whereas no person is clamoring for her to a get a title shot, the actual fact of the matter is that Kowalkiewicz is a former title challenger, an honest identify within the division, and someone has to battle Zhang subsequent.
Suarez is the apparent subsequent contender at 115 kilos, however she is coming off one other damage and banking on her to make it to any battle is a idiot’s errand. So who else is within the dialog? Joanna Jedrzejczyk retired, Rose Namajunas jumped up in weight, and Zhang has already overwhelmed a lot of the different prime contenders. Mackenzie Dern may make sense however she will be able to’t appear to win fights when it counts, and the following nice hope, Crazy Godinez, simply misplaced.
That leaves Virna Jandiroba as the one different actual possibility, and if one thing occurs to her — it’s insane however true — Kowalkiewicz on 5 wins is out of the blue a really viable possibility.
