Alexandre Pantoja has the privilege of defending his title in his hometown, however will it’s tragedy or triumph for the flyweight champion?
The Rio de Janeiro native fights in Brazil for the primary time in over a decade and on paper he’s been granted an opponent tailored for him to impress towards. With Pantoja having dispatched of a number of high contenders already, it’s unassuming Australian Steve Erceg that obtained the decision for the UFC 301 most important occasion and with it, an opportunity to shock the world.
As proficient as Erceg is, he has simply three UFC fights below his belt and most followers are nonetheless attending to know him. Is he a hidden gem being unfairly missed or simply the beneficiary of fine timing? One factor is for certain: An Erceg win will blow the flyweight division broad open.
Within the co-main occasion—and we might have buried the lede right here—Jose Aldo is again! “The King of Rio” fights contained in the octagon for the primary time since 2022, placing a pause on his boxing profession to grace us all together with his presence for yet one more time (and to wrap up his UFC contract so he can return to boxing, however that’s in addition to the purpose). Aldo has been given something however a layup within the silent-but-deadly Jonathan Martinez, but when he can summon a few of that classic “Scarface” magic, perhaps he will get the correct sendoff he’s at all times deserved.
In different most important card motion, one-time gentle heavyweight title challenger Anthony Smith solutions the decision to struggle the undefeated Vitor Petrino, Michel Pereira meets Brazil nemesis Ihor Potieria in a middleweight bout, and Paul Craig seems at hand sleeper middleweight contender Caio Borralho his first UFC defeat.
What: UFC 301
The place: Farmasi Area in Rio de Janeiro
When: Saturday, Could 4. The cardboard begins with a five-fight early prelims portion on ESPN+ at 6 p.m. ET, with persevering with protection of the four-fight prelim card additionally on ESPN and ESPN+ starting at 8 p.m. ET. The five-fight most important card begins at 10 p.m. ET and is obtainable solely on ESPN+ pay-per-view.
(Numbers in parentheses point out standing in MMA Combating’s World Rankings and Pound-for-Pound Rankings)
Alexandre Pantoja (1, P4P-6) vs. Steve Erceg (14)
Since this matchup was first introduced, it’s been tempting to get on the Steve Erceg underdog bandwagon. He’s tremendously impressed in his three UFC wins, has that affable Australian disposition all of us love, and is certainly driving a wave of “no person believes in me” power. Anybody who’s stored up with Erceg’s story shouldn’t be shocked in any respect if he topples Alexandre Pantoja on Saturday.
Pantoja is in a precarious place, having already constructed up a powerful résumé towards the division’s greatest to the purpose that his subsequent few title defenses are more likely to be up towards up-and-comers missing in title worth. It’s on him to raise the championship together with his performances, after all, but it surely’s arduous to shake the sensation that he’s at all times moving into there with extra to lose than to realize.
If anybody thinks that is only a showcase bout for the Brazilian star, they’ll be dissatisfied once they see the issues that Erceg presents. He’s excellent at controlling distance and his persistence usually results in his opponents making errors. Even Pantoja would possibly overextend towards Erceg if the tempo isn’t to his liking.
That mentioned, Pantoja is a grasp of managed chaos and whereas there have been occasions lately the place it seems like he’s throwing warning to the wind, his fundamentals are so strong that he’s hardly ever in peril of loosening the reins utterly. It’d take a spherical for him to suss out Erceg’s type, however ultimately he’s going to push ahead and switch this right into a dogfight. He’ll additionally combine in loads of takedowns to check Erceg’s floor sport.
Each headliners are extremely sturdy and so they’re going to take some harm as they arrange their offense. Pantoja has confirmed he excels in wars of attrition and although Erceg may have his moments, the choice goes the way in which of the champion.
Choose: Pantoja
Jose Aldo vs. Jonathan Martinez (14)
It’s time to say goodbye.
OK, it’s totally potential that Jose Aldo isn’t simply preventing out his contract and he’s truly returning to the UFC, but it surely’s uncertain. So as a substitute of breaking out the crimson yarn and connecting the dots to an Aldo-Sean O’Malley title struggle, let’s have a look at this reserving in essentially the most constructive gentle and see it as our likelihood to offer a correct farewell to a legend.
As a result of win or lose, it is a fantastic manner for Aldo’s MMA profession to finish. As pretty as Salt Lake Metropolis is, it’s not residence, and The King of Rio was at all times meant to name it a profession in entrance of a sea of adoring Brazilian followers. Now will he exit on a excessive observe or will Jonathan Martinez hold his scorching streak going?
Martinez has established himself because the grasp of the leg kick—a title as soon as proudly held by Aldo himself—so “The Silence Behind the Violence” received’t hesitate to commerce pictures with Aldo on this division. That could possibly be his path to victory, too, as Aldo’s lengthy layoff doubtless means it might take time for him to get going. A couple of chopping kicks to the lead leg will cease Aldo earlier than he will get began.
We are able to’t low cost that Aldo has been busy boxing although and since this struggle will principally be contested on the toes, that have can solely assist him. It’s uncommon to see Aldo utterly outclassed in a putting battle and simply because he’s lengthy within the tooth, doesn’t imply he’s forgotten what makes him nice.
Yeah, I’m choosing Aldo, and what!
Choose: Aldo
Anthony Smith (13) vs. Vitor Petrino
I’m torn on this one.
Theoretically, this ought to be a chalk choose in Vitor Petrino’s favor. He’s youthful, quicker, stronger, and if he was going to name out any title within the high 15 to spice up his profile, Anthony Smith was the proper one. Add in some residence cooking and the stage ought to be set for him to snag Smith’s quantity.
Then you definitely check out their power of schedule and—with respect to Tyson Pedro and firm—that 0 in Petrino’s loss column abruptly doesn’t look so shiny. Smith may be in a stoop, however when you think about that his stoop has come towards a bevy of heavy hitters, you possibly can’t blame him for having some crimson on his ledger.
Smith’s greatest wager is to take this struggle to the bottom, which is simpler mentioned than carried out when you think about the athleticism hole. With no correct setup, he’s asking for an uppercut or knee to the dome.
I nonetheless assume Smith is an excessive amount of for Petrino at this level in his profession and I’m assured he can win this struggle together with his grappling. I imply, I had nearly the very same evaluation for Smith’s most up-to-date struggle and that turned out simply dandy.
Wait, no it didn’t. What am I doing? Petrino by knockout.
Choose: Petrino
Ihor Potieria vs. Michel Pereira
Ihor Potieria, it’s time to pay the piper.
It was in January 2023 that Potieria tempted the fates as he was picked out of obscurity to be the ultimate opponent of the legendary Mauricio “Shogun” Rua. Not solely did he end Rua by way of strikes, he had the audacity to pose and preen in celebration, which went about in addition to you’d count on with the Rio crowd. Now he returns to the scene of the crime.
Ready for him is Brazilian wild man Michel Pereira. It’s true, we’ve seen a kinder, gentler, and steadier Pereira lately, however “Demolidor” remains to be overflowing with power and charisma, which he’ll undoubtedly channel into his efficiency Saturday. Pereira received’t be glad with a call, not with a legion of vengeful followers calling for Potieria’s blood.
Pereira is simply too dynamic for Potieria. He’ll play together with his meals for a couple of minutes earlier than touchdown a show-stealing knockout strike and sending the followers residence pleased it doesn’t matter what occurs the remainder of the evening.
Choose: Pereira
Paul Craig vs. Caio Borralho
Are you able to say… BRAZIL SWEEP???
Caio Borralho, you bought this. His karate type can be powerful for Paul Craig to take care of and his floor sport is powerful sufficient to fend off Craig’s submission makes an attempt. Don’t be shocked if it’s Craig who finds himself defending towards Borralho’s harmful grappling.
Craig has to discover a option to take Borralho down and preserve high management if he needs to have an opportunity to win this one. In any other case, he’ll be picked aside on the toes and relegated to throwing up Hail Mary submissions off of his again (not that he can’t pull a type of off, simply ask Magomed Ankalaev). That is Borralho’s struggle to lose.
Belief Borralho to dominate together with his methodical, if less-than-thrilling type en path to a unanimous resolution nod.
Choose: Borralho
Preliminaries
Joanderson Brito def. Jack Shore
Karolina Kowalkiewicz def. Iasmin Lucindo
Myktybek Orolbai def. Elves Brener
Drakkar Klose def. Joaquim Silva
Mauricio Ruffy def. Jamie Mullarkey
Dione Barbosa def. Ernesta Kareckaite
Ismael Bonfim def. Vinc Pichel
Alessandro Costa def. Kevin Borjas
