Three Factors Favor Alcaraz IW Three-Peat

By Richard Pagliaro | @TennisNow | Thursday, February 27, 2025
Photo credit: Frey/TPN/Getty

The Indian Wells Tennis Garden is one of Carlos Alcaraz’s favorite spots on tour.

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Alcaraz defeated Alexander Zverev, Jannik Sinner and Daniil Medvedev in the 2024 final to become the first man since Novak Djokovic in 2016 to successfully defend the BNP Paribas Open.

Next week, Alcaraz launches his quest to join Roger Federer and Djokovic as the third man to three-pear as Indian Wells champion.

Meeting the media in a Tennis Channel conference call to promote the network’s first-ball-to-last ball coverage starting on Wednesday, Davenport cited three reasons why Alcaraz is a strong favorite to three-peat.

1. Confidence—Alcaraz rides a 12-match Indian Wells winning streak into the 2025 BNP Paribas Open, including wins over his top rivals.

2. Conditions—The slower, grittier court give Alcaraz ample time to set up for his shots and launch his flame thrower forehand.

3. Competition—The second seed should prosper in a field where world No. 1 Sinner is MIA serving his three-month suspension to settle WADA’s appeal of his doping case.

Additionally, world No. 2 Zverev has suffered back-to-back losses to Francisco Comesana and Learner Tien and Djokovic, who suffered a torn left leg muscle that forced him to retire from the Australian Open semifinals, has played just one match since his Melbourne departure.

“Even though he will be seeded 2, I believe behind Zverev… I don’t think any crazy ranking points are falling off this week… he’s the favorite in everyone’s mind based on his past play,” Davenport told the media. “Obviously without Sinner there as well.

“He’s one of those types of players that can fill a stadium with people just so excited to see what shots he comes up with, the level that he brings. He has that “it” factor, and tennis is really lucky to have him in our sport.

“The surface we were talking about gives him more time to set up his forehands. It gives him more time to hit his drop shots. The ball is not skidding into him. He can still hit big enough to hit through the conditions, later in the day, at night sometimes when it gets a little heavier and a little cooler.

“He’s my favorite there to win the men.”