The year of living dangerously

Could there be a lower point in the Jays era of Celtics basketball? After winning a championship a year ago, a confluence of bad luck and injuries derailed a chance to defend it repeat. Now, both Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum are coming off offseason surgeries — Tatum’s ruptured Achilles obviously being the more serious of the two — with the fate of the franchise in limbo.

And if there’s any doubt that the Celtics are entering a gap year, the trades of Jrue Holiday and Kristaps Porzingis solidified the front office’s motivation. Luke Kornet’s decision to leave for San Antonio in free agency and the looming departure (or retirement) of Al Horford are just the lapping tide that washes away the memory of Banner 18 for the penalties of the second apron leave no team intact for long.

With a roster currently featuring six players on their first contract and two others on “prove it” deals, next season might look like an unintentional/intentional tank job. The talent and experience drain from this 61-win team is palpable, but if you’re like me, what fills this vacuum can often be more interesting than a discussion of what types of players should Brad Stevens surround Tatum and Brown around. Now, those questions will reach an even more existential level: with Jayson and Jaylen entering their prime and a year to think about it, what will the Celtics look like in the next five?

This could be a re-defining of Boston basketball.

It’s might seem like a minor change in mindset at first. That thirtysomething trio of Holiday-Porzingis-Horford met the Jays at where they were at in their development: burgeoning playmakers that made their jobs easier as they entered their primes. Porzingis — when healthy — was always considered the best offensive compliment with his ability pick-and-pop and roll to the basket. Despite spending years as a lead guard, Holiday was a multi-faceted defender that could guard 1-5 and take some of those pressures off of Tatum and Brown. In Horford, the venerable veteran was the calming force in the locker room — a true mentor to the franchise’s young cornerstones.

Moving forward, the puzzle to build around Jaylen and Jayson (and Derrick White) could be more fundamental, and dare I say, spiritual. The last two seasons have been defined by Joe Mazzulla’s tactical decision to become not just a high volume three-point shooting team, but the pioneers of this math-based movement in hoops. That approach didn’t come from the Jays’ skillsets necessarily. It was more a product of the collective. With so many skilled players that could do a little bit of everything, Boston could blow teams away with their talent alone.

That won’t be the case in October and forecasting the future of the league, that may not be the case for contenders in this time of parity.

Because of the new CBA, teams, and more specifically, teams looking to compete for a championship, will have to get production out of their young players — that could mean guys on their rookie contracts or role players outperforming team-friendly deals. Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren being this good this early was expected, but getting substantial playoff minutes from bench players like Aaron Wiggins, Cason Wallace, and Isaiah Joe was a necessary boon in the Finals. The Pacers don’t get to Game 7 without the production of Andrew Nembhard, Benedict Mathurin, and Ben Sheppard.

And to empower those players, the teams’ stars, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Tyrese Haliburton, imprinted their DNA up and down the roster. There’s an underdog swagger that oozes off the MVP and subsequently, the rest of his team. Haliburton’s unpredictable freestyle gameplay has been adapted and supercharged by Rick Carlisle for the entire rotation.

Right now, a shot a championship is at least a year away. In the meantime, next season sets up to be a proving ground for over half the Celtics roster. Recent free agent signings Josh Minott and Luke Garza should immediately have opportunities for playing time. Neemias Queta and Xavier Tillman should be champing at the bit to see the floor.

However, what’s most exciting might be the three recent draftees. Summer League isn’t exactly an accurate gauge of whether or not a young player will contribute in the fall, but a lot of eyes will be on a few players just to see if they can be a guy, someone that Mazzulla can give 10-15 minutes to and make a positive impact on the game. Entering his third year, is Jordan Walsh ready to be that defensive demon we were promised out of Arkansas? Was the flash in the pan performance of Baylor Scheierman towards the end of last season just that, or could he be an actual player in a 10-rotation? After marinating in Real Madrid, will Hugo Gonzalez’s frenetic pace and athleticism translate immediately to the NBA game?

Maine and the developmental team will be working over the next two months to get everybody ready, but come training camp and the preseason, it will eventually be the Jays that everybody else will take their cues from. Tatum’s rehab is a long road and there’s no telling if he’ll get back to the level he’s been at for the last four years as a perennial MVP candidate.

Instead, Brown could be the key driver of defining the next era, not as a player to build around, but as a player to model after and duplicate. JB isn’t a heliocentric — and more importantly, egocentric — superstar like Luka Doncic or LeBron James and he certainly has his limitations. He improved as a playmaker last season (3.9 assists per game was a career best), but it’s unlikely that he can be a team’s primary offensive option. However, he could be the perfect avatar for what the Celtics could look like in 2025-2026 and beyond: a Finals MVP that focused his efforts on the defensive end and a three-level scorer that thrives off ball movement and spacing.

Without Tatum, Brown will be the best version of what Mazzulla is looking for. In other words, players he can trust. DWhite is right there, too. Payton Pritchard and Sam Hauser of course. But to get through an 82-game grind, the Celtics will need 9-10 gamers, not shooters or ballhandlers or rim protectors — gamers.

Academic gap years aren’t traditionally taken in the US. Americans tend to go straight from high school to college. In Australia and the UK, teenagers are more apt to twelve months off, ostensibly to “find themselves” and figure out what they want for the rest of their lives.

So, try everything, Celtics. Go to India. Run with the bulls. Fall in love. Get well. Come back better. This is the year for experimentation. And we’ll be with you every step of the way.