Like Bill Russell famously said, the two best words in sports are game seven. The Oklahoma City Thunder and the Indiana Pacers have delivered in spades over the last few weeks, and how lucky are we as basketball fans to have the NBA season conclude with a one-game, winner-take-all showdown for the first time in nine years?
David vs. Goliath
The Thunder entered this series as -700 favorites to win their first NBA championship, and some sportsbooks had them priced as steep as -2200 after a dominant Game 5 performance gave them a 3-2 lead. With the series shifting back to Oklahoma City for Game 7, the Thunder are still strongly favored by as much as 7.5 points in some markets.
According to Action Network, that line at closing would make Oklahoma City the steepest favorite in a Game 7 since the Boston Celtics were eight-point favorites against the Los Angeles Lakers in 1966. However, the Lakers did close between -6.5 and 7-point favorites ahead of Game 7 against the Celtics in 2010. According to OddsShark, each of the last four NBA Finals Game 7s have closed between a five and seven-point spread and the winning team has covered that spread three times. Furthermore, LeBron James and the 2016 Cleveland Cavaliers are the only underdogs that have won a Game 7 this millennium.
What’s On The Line
I mention all that betting jargon only to properly contextualize just how substantial an Indiana Pacers title-clinching victory would be on Sunday. Most basketball fans already know how improbable this playoff run was, even if it falls short. Still, if you are a casual or you’ve been cut off from civilization since April, I’ll provide a brief refresher with (unfortunately) some more betting jargon. The Indiana Pacers entered this season with +6600 (66-to-1!) odds to win the NBA championship, which would make this championship run the most improbable in any of the four major US pro sports since 1985.
Another reason I mention all of these odds is to illustrate the significance of the historical weight that Oklahoma City is carrying into this game. The Thunder are seeking their 84th win of the season, which would make them only the second franchise in NBA history to win at least 84 games and the NBA championship in a season. The other two teams? Only Michael Jordan’s Chicago Bulls back-to-back in ‘96 and ‘97. If they lose? They’ll join the 2016 Golden State Warriors as the only teams to win 80+ games in a season without taking home the Larry O’Brien trophy.
Legacy Defining Game
This game also carries significant weight for the legacy of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who is on the verge of becoming the fourth player since 2000 to win the NBA MVP, NBA Finals and the NBA Finals MVP in a single season. A loss, on the other hand, will put his already fragile stature as a superstar on trial. Stephen Curry’s dud in Game 7 of the 2016 NBA Finals is still the first thing brought up when mentioning his acumen as a big-time performer and that’s a player who’s tape is far more undeniable than Gilgeous-Alexander’s is.
Again, that’s all a long-winded way of saying that the results of Sunday’s Game 7 will not only shape the perception of Gilgeous-Alexander’s legacy, but it will also become the scope by which the remainder of his career is defined. As great as LeBron James’ career has been, his no-show in the 2011 NBA Finals is still a significant argument against his legacy in the oh-so-important GOAT debates. As great as Gilgeous-Alexander has been for the first six games, it all means nothing if he doesn’t perform to his standard in a Game 7 win. If the masses were so unkind to LeBron and Steph after their infamous failures, I can only imagine the criticism an already polarizing talent like Gilgeous-Alexander would face.
Pressure’s On The Pacers, Too
While the standard trope for an underdog in a game of this magnitude is that they have nothing to lose, I don’t believe that rings true for the Indiana Pacers. What hangs in the balance for one of basketball’s proudest fan bases isn’t just their first NBA title, it’s the completion of the single most improbable championship run in the history of American sports.
A win puts them in the pantheon of the 1969 New York Mets, 2007 New York Giants and the 2011 Dallas Mavericks. A loss places them alongside the 1999 New York Knicks and 2008 Arizona Cardinals as improbable, but largely forgotten runs that fell short. It would put Tyrese Haliburton into the Dirk Nowitzki tier of franchise legends who led an improbable championship run. It would make Pascal Siakam a two-time NBA champion with a potential Finals MVP to his name, which would have to encourage some conversations about his standing in history.
The Wrap-Up
Now that the stakes are all laid out, all that’s left to do is count down the hours until Game 7 tips off. These games are known to get weird, so really all of these stats, odds, and fun facts mean nothing once the referee tosses that ball in the air on Sunday at 8 p.m. EDT. It’s been nine years since the NBA season came down to a grand finale, and if this one is anything like the last time we’re in for what could be a decade-defining two-and-a-half hours of basketball.
