Like switching from fluorescent tubes to an LED ring gentle, profitable a championship places every little thing in gentler aid. Flaws are usually waved away (“Properly, they gained final yr, didn’t they?”) and strengths extra notably appreciated. The nice and cozy glow provides everybody concerned a lift.
One participant whose recreation ought to achieve extra notoriety is Payton Pritchard. After watching him evolve final season, I’m extra satisfied than ever that he has an opportunity to win Sixth Man of the Yr this season.
Let’s get the caveat out of the way in which first. No, Pritchard may not even be the Celtics’ sixth man. However that’s the form of paradox we dwell for — in spite of everything, Jaylen Brown is the most effective participant on the earth however solely the second-best participant in Boston!
Nothing within the rulebook says that 6MOY really has to go to a sixth man. To qualify, a participant should merely come off the bench in additional video games than he begins. So, for the needs of this award, it doesn’t matter whether or not Pritchard edges out Sam Hauser or Al Horford in common minutes (though Al appears more likely to be disqualified for beginning too many video games in Porzingis’ absence, anyway).
Payton does match the profile higher than Hauser or Horford, too. Like your faculty roommate’s obsession with tattooed blondes, media voters have a sort. In keeping with analysis I did final yr, 17 of the earlier 20 winners have gone to bucket-getting guards.
Fortunately for Pritchard, there’s been a slight shift in how a lot scoring must be achieved. The earlier two winners, Boston’s personal Malcolm Brogdon in 2022-23 and Timberwolf Naz Reid final season, averaged fewer than 15 factors per recreation and nonetheless gained the award regardless of competitors that scored extra. Voters are more and more keen to take a look at affect as a substitute of simply factors per recreation.
Picture by Brian Babineau/NBAE through Getty Photographs
Even the rosiest Pritchard forecasts don’t name for him to make it rain that onerous, so he gained’t win an outright factors contest. However after a poor Finals efficiency (the end-of-quarter heaves whitewashed struggles together with his shot and protection), he’s speaking about enhancing all the suitable issues: his protection (which is able to preserve him on the court docket) and his three-ball off the dribble, the place he solely shot 30.6% final season.
Count on a motivated Pritchard to return again new and improved on each side. Plus, circumstances ought to afford him extra alternative. He averaged a career-high 22.3 minutes per recreation final yr, and there shall be room for him to earn extra run.
Jrue Vacation is not any spring hen, and Boston could elect to relaxation him extra through the common season — his 2,263 minutes performed final season have been his most in 5 years. With nothing within the common season to show, the Jays could take extra relaxation days, too. And Porzingis’ absence creates a 20-points-per-game vacuum within the lineup. With out his capturing, Boston appears more likely to run far fewer two-big lineups this season, opening the door for extra small ball.
The 26-year-old Pritchard is a possible candidate for an elevated minutes load, a minimum of till Porzingis comes again. And he doesn’t want a lot time to fill it up — he has scored 35 factors in 40 preseason minutes thus far, searching for his shot aggressively. A few further makes an attempt despatched his approach will goose his numbers.
We now have a beginning place if Pritchard hovers round 26 minutes per night time and might eke his scoring as much as 13-ish factors. Pritchard’s strong help numbers and stunning rebounding, significantly on the offense finish, ought to refill field scores to no matter minimal threshold voters require for consideration.
From there, Pritchard’s superior metrics ought to shine. His Estimated Plus/Minus (probably the most well-regarded publicly out there all-in-one stat) was increased than final yr’s prime 4 vote-getters, together with Reid. It’s no coincidence that the Celtics’ reserves, by and enormous, had higher on/off numbers than a lot of the starters. Aided by Mazzulla’s numbers-driven offensive engine and Pritchard’s playmaking, the second unit smeared foes like so many windshield flies.
That opens up a story for nationwide audiences. Have a look at Payton Pritchard, the super-sub who is available in and makes the NBA’s finest crew even higher! If he can proceed his penchant for buzzer-beaters, Pritchard can have the highlights to maintain him top-of-mind, too.
Competitors shall be stiff, even inside his personal crew. One might argue that each Horford (once more, probably to not qualify) and Hauser are as vital or extra to the crew’s success. Defending champ Reid can have much more alternative to place up huge numbers off the bench this yr after the Karl-Anthony Cities commerce. Sacramento’s Malik Monk has been a top-five vote-getter within the final two seasons, and somebody all the time is available in as a shock candidate (Alex Caruso in OKC and CJ McCollum in New Orleans are intriguing darkish horse picks).
Is Pritchard profitable Sixth Man of the Yr more likely to occur? No. It’s a tough award to mission, and quite a bit has to go proper for whoever nabs it. However the truth that I’m even speaking about Pritchard’s candidacy reveals the chance he’ll have and the excessive expectations he’s engendered. I’m able to see Pritchard add some accolades to his Basketball Reference web page.
