In the early days of the football analytics movement, Football Outsiders (RIP) published the polemic “Curse of 370.”
A running back with 370 or more carries during the regular season will usually suffer either a major injury or a loss of effectiveness the following year, unless he is named Eric Dickerson.
Terrell Davis, Jamal Anderson, and Edgerrin James all blew out their knees. Earl Campbell, Jamal Lewis, and Eddie George went from legendary powerhouses to plodding, replacement-level players. Shaun Alexander struggled with foot injuries, and Curtis Martin had to retire. This is what happens when a running back is overworked to the point of having at least 370 carries during the regular season.
While there were some issues with this, such as arbitrary endpoints–which they acknowledged–and survivorship bias, the general point was true: running backs are not the bellcow that we thought they were. The league took notice. In the four season prior to the Curse of 370 being published in 2004, six players had had 370 or more rushing attempts in the regular season, since then, only six have.
Something must be the least important position on offense, and for years it has been the running back. The position is enjoying a bit of a renaissance with Saquon Barkley topping 2000 yards, Derrick Henry nearly hitting that mark for a second time, and high draft picks Bijan Robinson and Jahmyr Gibbs being successes.
But nothing can change that a back who takes a beating eventually pays the price. Saquon Barkley had 370 touches in the regular season, and 104 in the playoffs.
Let’s revisit high usage RBs, lowering the threshold to 350 touches because the modern running back is both more versatile and used less, and also including the playoffs because bodies are not magically immune to wear and tear because it happens in January.
From 2014 to 2023, ten seasons, there were 25 seasons of RBs who had 350+ touches including playoffs. (Not including Le’Veon Bell in 2017, who didn’t play the next season in a contract dispute). Unsurprisingly, the results were not good for them the next year. All but two players saw their yards per touch decline, and those two players had a combined 322 fewer touches.
In the following season, just six had more than 300 touches. Only nine players had a drop off of less than 0.5 yards per touch and played at least half the season.
350+ touch running backs
Player
Year 1
Yr 1 Touches
Yr 1 Yards
Yr 1 Yds/Touch
Yr 2 Games
Yr 2 Touches
Yr 2 Yards
Yr 2 Yds/Touch
Diff
Player
Year 1
Yr 1 Touches
Yr 1 Yards
Yr 1 Yds/Touch
Yr 2 Games
Yr 2 Touches
Yr 2 Yards
Yr 2 Yds/Touch
Diff
Adrian Peterson
2015
382
1765
4.62
3
40
80
2.00
-2.62
Christian McCaffrey
2022
381
2179
5.72
16
417
1879
4.51
-1.21
Christian McCaffrey
2023
417
2443
5.86
4
65
348
5.35
-0.50
Christian McCaffrey
2019
403
2392
5.94
3
76
374
4.92
-1.01
Dalvin Cook
2020
356
1918
5.39
13
283
1383
4.89
-0.50
David Johnson
2016
373
2118
5.68
1
17
90
5.29
-0.38
DeMarco Murray
2014
497
2486
5.00
15
237
1024
4.32
-0.68
Derrick Henry
2022
382
1936
5.07
17
308
1381
4.48
-0.58
Derrick Henry
2020
418
2192
5.24
8
237
1091
4.60
-0.64
Ezekiel Elliott
2018
433
2236
5.16
16
355
1777
5.01
-0.16
Ezekiel Elliott
2019
355
1777
5.01
15
296
1317
4.45
-0.56
Ezekiel Elliott
2016
377
2117
5.62
10
268
1252
4.67
-0.94
Joe Mixon
2021
419
1888
4.51
14
270
1255
4.65
0.14
Jonathan Taylor
2021
372
2171
5.84
11
220
1004
4.56
-1.27
Josh Jacobs
2022
393
2053
5.22
13
270
1101
4.08
-1.15
Le’Veon Bell
2016
405
2244
5.54
15
406
1946
4.79
-0.75
Le’Veon Bell
2014
373
2215
5.94
6
137
692
5.05
-0.89
LeSean McCoy
2017
371
1705
4.60
14
195
752
3.86
-0.74
Matt Forte
2014
368
1846
5.02
13
262
1287
4.91
-0.10
Najee Harris
2021
395
1695
4.29
17
313
1263
4.04
-0.26
Rachaad White
2023
368
1705
4.63
16
195
1006
5.16
0.53
Saquon Barkley
2022
352
1650
4.69
14
288
1242
4.31
-0.38
Saquon Barkley
2018
352
2028
5.76
13
269
1441
5.36
-0.40
Todd Gurley
2017
361
2204
6.11
14
315
1831
5.81
-0.29
Travis Etienne
2023
325
1484
4.57
15
189
812
4.30
-0.27
On average, these RBs dropped from 5.24 yards per touch to 4.61, and had 148 fewer touches. Even among the 17 who played at least 13 games, they dropped from 5.07 yards per touch to 4.64, and averaged 97 fewer touches.
It is unfortunate, but chances are that Saquon Barkley is going to miss time in 2025, and when he is available he won’t be as effective. In 2018 and 2022 he had over 350 touches, the next year in both seasons he missed three games early in the season, and in both seasons his yards per touch decreased by 0.4 yards. In both cases, as we see above, that is actually a pretty good outcome for the follow up season to a large workload.
A year ago signing Barkley was seemingly against the grain, Howie Roseman did not invest in running backs because they weren’t worth the money. But Barkley didn’t get the kind of big contract that made Roseman stay away from the position, he got WR3 money. Roseman pounced because the market came to him. Now, giving Barkley a big contract extension after one high usage season negates the advantages of having an elite RB at the cost of a complimentary WR.
But so what. The Eagles are defending Super Bowl winners. Every year teams double down on a roster that has no chance. No team has a better chance than the Eagles to win the Super Bowl next year. They’re not locking up the core of a 9 to 11 win team and hoping to catch a break. They’re not locking up an aging roster hoping for a swan song season. This is the best team in the league, and they have a trophy to prove it.
A year ago, the Eagles vibes were pathetic. Today they’re as good as ever, and rewarding a great player for a great, Super Bowl winning season just keeps it going. Along those lines, don’t be surprised if the team and Darius Slay pull a U-turn again.
Also, it’s exhausting as a fan to care about contracts when a team is great. To quote soccer executive Monchi, “no one takes a ‘what great economic results’ banner to the stadium.” Get great players. Coach them up. Win. The Eagles are doing it. Sports are supposed to be fun, and Saquon Barkley on the Eagles is fun. Go Birds.
