This winter has been one of many weakest markets for center infielders in current reminiscence. You bear in mind the shortstop glut of current years? Carlos Correa, Corey Seager, Francisco Lindor, Trevor Story, Xander Bogaerts… the listing of gamers who both reached free company or signed extensions to take them off the market went on and on. However this yr, the pickings have been slim. Relying on private desire, the most effective second baseman or shortstop out there was… Whit Merrifield? Isiah Kiner-Falefa? I’d have mentioned Amed Rosario, solely the market clearly disagrees:
Infielder Amed Rosario and the Tampa Bay Rays are in settlement on a one-year, $1.5 million contract, sources inform ESPN. Rosario, 28, will carry a robust bat in opposition to left-handed pitching and may get at-bats at shortstop, second base and probably corner-outfield spots.
— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) February 20, 2024
That’s an incredibly gentle deal for Rosario, a minimum of in my head. I had him on the tail finish of my High 50 free agent rankings, and the group and I each penciled him in for a two-year deal price $8 million per yr. As a substitute, he’s getting lower than a fifth of that AAV, and for under a yr at that. This deserves some investigation, each into why his market didn’t develop and why the Rays got here calling ultimately.
If you happen to’re on the lookout for a cause to not signal Rosario, it’s fairly straightforward to provide you with a handful. The primary one is pretty apparent. He simply put up a season price 0.2 WAR, which is about as disastrous because it sounds. The rationale? His protection at shortstop was downright abysmal. DRS and OAA agree that he was one of many worst common shortstops in baseball, 10 runs or so under common in an abbreviated run as Cleveland’s on a regular basis choice.
That’s putrid stuff, plain and easy. If you happen to play shortstop that poorly, you most likely shouldn’t play shortstop in any respect. The Dodgers clearly concurred; even with a transparent want on the place, they relegated Rosario to second base responsibility after buying and selling for him. However excellent news! He dealt with second base pretty properly, so he can nonetheless play an up-the-middle defensive place, which provides his worth a pleasant flooring.
Again to the unhealthy information: If you happen to’re going to play acceptable second base protection, you possibly can most likely get away with being a league common bat. However Rosario wasn’t common — his 88 wRC+ wasn’t fairly disastrous, nevertheless it’s the type of line you possibly can settle for from a slick-fielding man, not a defender who’s common at finest. A mean hitter who performs common second base protection is a pleasant main leaguer. Downgrade both aspect to under common, although, and we’re speaking about substitute stage or thereabouts.
A little bit little bit of all the things went mistaken for Rosario on the plate final yr. He has by no means hit for a ton of energy, however he hit for lower than ever in 2023. His underlying numbers again that up; each permutation of his batted ball information says the identical factor, that he was making impactful contact much less ceaselessly than earlier than. Prior to now, he’d been capable of offset that lack of pop by slashing and sprinting his strategy to a excessive BABIP. He didn’t do abysmally on that entrance in 2023, however even a .310 BABIP wasn’t sufficient to rescue his general offensive worth. The mixture of a low stroll charge, low energy, and a merely acceptable batting common turned him into an offensive legal responsibility.
That’s all the time been the draw back threat with Rosario, and that’s why he ended up with such a modest contract. If issues don’t pan out, he’s not a lot better than somebody you possibly can pull up from Triple-A. However that’s now baked into the contract; even for the penny-pinching Rays, $1.5 million will hardly break the financial institution. That implies that Tampa Bay can deal with the upside he would possibly carry to the desk, and that’s appreciable.
Let’s begin with one apparent limitation of Rosario’s that may work out within the crew’s favor: He’s most likely not an on a regular basis participant except his offense improves considerably. Rosario has been an terrible hitter in opposition to righties in his profession, posting a .262/.296/.374 line, however he checks in at .298/.339/.467 in opposition to lefties, an enormous enchancment. Even in case you regress {that a} great distance again in direction of the imply, as befits somebody who has confronted lefties 948 occasions in his profession, we’re somebody with someplace between double and triple a league common platoon break up. If you happen to assume Rosario is a 95 wRC+ hitter general, that works out to one thing like a 91 wRC+ hitter in opposition to righties and 104 in opposition to lefties.
That’s a middling case, however you possibly can think about higher eventualities than that. Nonetheless good of a hitter you assume Rosario is, the Rays might make him considerably higher just by placing him in additional advantageous conditions. And wouldn’t you recognize, that’s type of their specialty. A fast have a look at their roster reveals two straightforward locations Rosario might work into the combo with out consuming at-bats in opposition to righties. He might type a pure platoon with Brandon Lowe, the incumbent second baseman and a lefty who has at occasions struggled in opposition to southpaws. He might additionally platoon with Jonathan Aranda, who we presently challenge because the DH.
Both of those roles shall be inherently restricted by the variety of lefties the Rays face. Randy Arozarena bought all of the lefty seems he might deal with final yr, which got here out to 138 plate appearances. Yandy Díaz bought to 139. There are solely so many plate appearances to go round in opposition to lefties as a result of there are solely so many lefty pitchers. Even probably the most platoon-happy righties find yourself dealing with largely same-handed pitching due to the best way that handedness works.
That’s the unhealthy information. The excellent news is that 150 or so plate appearances in opposition to lefties goes a great distance in direction of juicing up Rosario’s worth. He’ll play loads of video games with righties beginning because of Tampa Bay’s whirling configuration of our bodies. Perhaps Lowe will get a relaxation day at DH and let Rosario deal with second. Perhaps he’ll spell Jose Caballero at quick, or cowl a nook outfield in some bizarre flex operation. Together with his velocity and skill to hit lefties, he’ll additionally present late inning utility.
In some methods, the Rays appear to be an apparent match for Rosario’s abilities. Nobody shuffles and reshuffles fairly like they do, and nobody else finds little edges for simply the precise gamers the identical manner. That additional juice issues so much for gamers like Rosario, who initiatives as a below-average participant if utilized in a “normal” manner. By excising the spots the place he’d be at an obstacle, the Rays will possible get extra per plate look out of Rosario than another crew in baseball would possibly.
Then again, Rosario will most likely get fewer complete plate appearances with the Rays than he would wherever else serious about signing him. That’s simply a part of how they function, with few gamers on the 40-man roster getting something approaching full taking part in time. The Rays don’t signal plenty of common regulars, as a result of the worth that these sorts of gamers present is blunted by the shortage of accessible taking part in time.
If Rosario signed for something approaching what I used to be projecting, he by no means would have ended up on the Gulf Coast. The Rays merely don’t function that manner. However when his price ticket dropped, he turned way more enticing. When the league values a participant this near the minimal, utilizing them as a part-time participant makes good baseball and financial sense. It’s an affordable deal for Rosario, too; if he wasn’t getting a lot cash in 2024 regardless, there’s no higher place to play than someplace that may flatter his charge statistics upfront of a dip again into free company subsequent yr.
There’s one thing else at play right here, a minimum of probably. I can’t take a lot credit score for this perception, however I can also’t pin down who mentioned it first, as a result of I picked it up over the course of studying plenty of our remark sections. Mainly, groups are getting so good at growing Rosario-esque gamers internally that they’re being devalued in free company. If you happen to can generate an average-glove, slightly-below-average-bat second baseman out of your farm system at will, there’s no cause to supply somebody like Rosario a market charge in free company. The extra groups churn out 1-2 WAR center infielders, the much less that group of gamers shall be in demand.
It doesn’t go cleanly up the road to extra completed hitters, or a minimum of it hasn’t but. You would possibly have the ability to generate 95% of Amed Rosario for a cut price charge, however the identical can’t be mentioned for Jose Altuve. However the center class of up-the-middle defenders – sure, I mentioned that on function – is feeling it of their wallets for the time being. There are knock-on results price contemplating, too. The outdated argument in favor of defensively versatile prospects who would possibly battle to hit on the main league stage is that they might nonetheless develop into common center infielders. Simply have a look at actually Amed Rosario for an instance of that. But when that type of participant isn’t price a lot on the open market anymore, if you will get these varieties of hitters kind of freely, then the calculus adjustments.
It’s humorous to me that the Rays are those signing Rosario. For years, they’ve been those producing center infield prospects to keep away from hitting the free agent marketplace for these gamers. However now the tables have turned, they usually’re properly altering with the occasions. Proper now, there are sufficient so-so (relative to the most effective main leaguers) center infielders which you could signal them for reasonable. So naturally, the Rays are doing simply that, and selecting those who most match their roster building fashion to take action. Good work, Rays; the remainder of baseball absolutely received’t be far behind on the identical plan.
