As we profession at excessive velocity into the second half of the season, even the most effective NFL groups have points they should shore up earlier than the playoffs. As a result of within the postseason each mistake is magnified, and each huge play is larger.
So, listed here are 5 of the NFL’s most credible contenders, and the one doubtlessly deadly flaw that might boot every a type of squads out of the race to Tremendous Bowl LIX. The listing is much from exhaustive – there are many different groups who might win the title – be at liberty so as to add your individual decisions, and their weaknesses, beneath.
Kansas Metropolis Chiefs (9-0)
Weak point: A scarcity of explosive offensive playmakers.
The Chiefs are like Invoice Belichick’s greatest New England groups – it doesn’t matter what weak point you suppose you possibly can exploit, they’ll develop one other a part of their sport to beat you as an alternative. And that’s why these Chiefs are undefeated. However they’re undefeated regardless of a extreme lack of explosive performs, particularly within the passing sport. This season, Patrick Mahomes has simply 4 completions of 20 or extra air yards on 14 makes an attempt for 168 yards, three touchdowns, three interceptions, and a passer score of 77.1.
To place that into perspective, Jordan Love of the Inexperienced Bay Packers leads the NFL with 15 such completions, and solely two certified quarterbacks – Jacoby Brissett of the New England Patriots and Deshaun Watson of the Cleveland Browns – have fewer than Mahomes. Neither Brissett nor Watson are starters on their very own groups.
Mahomes has way more going for him than Brissett and Watson, and the Chiefs’ run sport, protection, and particular groups are preserving them afloat. However there must be some concern in Kansas Metropolis concerning the lack of playmakers who can set opposing defenses on edge when it actually issues. If the Chiefs go up in opposition to a extra explosive offense within the postseason, and Steve Spagnuolo’s glorious protection can’t counter, what is going to the Chiefs’ response be?
Detroit Lions (8-1)
Weak point: A cross rush that might not be adequate.
It’s onerous to wager in opposition to the Lions after they overcame a 23-7 half-time deficit and Jared Goff’s 5 interceptions to beat a really sport Houston Texans group on Sunday evening. However as we’ve mentioned, we’re speaking concerning the playoffs. And within the playoffs, any flaw might be magnified. For the Lions, it’s a cross rush that has clearly suffered since elite edge-rusher Aidan Hutchinson suffered a damaged tibia and fibula in Week 6. With Hutchinson, the Lions had 18 sacks. In his absence, they’ve managed simply 9.
The Lions’ strain fee is definitely barely higher with out Hutchinson, however that’s as a result of defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn has dialed up blitzes at a a lot increased fee – from 31.6% to 38.9% of their defensive snaps coming into the Texans sport. That’s all properly and good, however blitzing at a better fee makes you extra weak as a result of there are fewer gamers to cowl receivers. And when a protection has fewer sacks from extra pressures, that tells you that defenders aren’t attending to the quarterback as typically. Sure, pressures are additionally necessary, however sacks cease the play.
The current commerce for edge defender Za’Darius Smith might fill within the crater left by Hutchinson’s departure to some extent, but when it doesn’t, that protection might be way more weak to high-level passing video games because the season progresses. Head coach Dan Campbell’s optimism has finished wonders, however it could’t put quarterbacks on the bottom.
Buffalo Payments (8-2)
Weak point: Having to construct the entire aircraft out of Josh Allen … once more.
Buffalo’s Sean McDermott must be thought-about for coach of the 12 months, as a result of this was presupposed to be a rebuilding season for the group. As a substitute, these Payments look as harmful as anybody when all the pieces’s working. A protection with many new components and a wholly new secondary has clamped down fairly properly, and the offense with Allen generally is a significant issue for any protection.
However all through the Allen period, which actually started in 2020 when he raised his sport to the very best degree, the Payments have tended to depend on their quarterback an excessive amount of. This season is not any totally different. James Cook dinner and Ray Davis are respectable operating backs, however Allen has been the group’s greatest rusher for years. And as a lot as Allen can win video games as a passer, he hasn’t had an alpha receiver in a very long time. This season, the commerce for former Browns receiver Amari Cooper has helped a bit, however first-round rookie Keon Coleman continues to be combating consistency, and the most effective receiver on the group is slot maven Khalil Shakir.
There’s no query that it is a brilliantly coached group on either side of the ball, however relying too closely on Allen has stopped the Payments from their Tremendous Bowl targets again and again in recent times – normally on the altar of the Chiefs. And whereas Allen wouldn’t be the primary quarterback to go on a thermonuclear streak within the playoffs to nab a Lombardi Trophy, that’s rather a lot to anticipate – regardless of how good that quarterback could also be.
Pittsburgh Steelers (7-2)
Weak point: What if Russell Wilson is a mirage?
The one factor you’ll hear above all else with regards to Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin is that he’s by no means had a shedding season, and that is his 18th 12 months on the helm. That’s a exceptional file. However Tomlin has needed to paste issues collectively at quarterback over the previous few seasons, principally ever since Ben Roethlisberger began to say no in his ultimate years with the Steelers.
The 2024 Steelers bypassed the draft to unravel their quarterback drawback and as an alternative traded for Justin Fields, and signed Wilson after he was launched by the Denver Broncos. Fields was seen as a uncooked quarterback who wanted the precise atmosphere, and Wilson was perceived to be the veteran whose greatest days had been previous him. Tomlin started the season with Fields because the starter, however went with Wilson as an alternative in Week 7.
Since Wilson grew to become starter, the Steelers are averaging 30.3 factors and 382 yards per sport, versus 20.7 factors and 298 yards per sport with Fields. Offensive coordinator Arthur Smith appears to know what the Wilson offense must be – a dynamic run sport, with Wilson’s deep-ball pictures off play-action. That’s what labored for Wilson in Seattle, and that’s what Sean Payton didn’t give him in Denver.
This might propel Pittsburgh to a spot it hasn’t been shortly … however Wilson can also be identified to interrupt down for stretches, and if he doesn’t keep inside himself, the Steelers might simply be again to counting on protection and particular groups to scrounge them wins.
Baltimore Ravens (7-3)
Weak point: A protection that’s falling aside.
In 2023, the Ravens had the NFL’s greatest protection by just about each measure. They led the league in FTN’s Defensive DVOA, a metric that tabulates opponent-adjusted effectivity. They led the NFL in fewest factors allowed at 280. They tied with the Browns and the New York Jets for the league’s lowest yards per play common at 4.6. They allowed a league-low 19 passing touchdowns, and so they had 15 interceptions. Solely the Detroit Lions and the San Francisco 49ers had extra whole pressures than Baltimore’s 308. This was an totally dominant unit from entrance to again.
Now, with out former defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald, who left to develop into head coach of the Seattle Seahawks, and with rookie DC Zach Orr as his substitute, the Ravens rank sixteenth in Defensive DVOA. They’ve allowed the NFL’s third-most factors at 253. They’ve allowed 5.7 yards per play, tied with the New York Giants and Patriots for fourth-worst within the league. They’ve allowed 22 passing touchdowns (essentially the most within the league), and so they have simply six interceptions. Final season, opposing quarterbacks managed a passer score of 77.9 in opposition to Baltimore’s protection, behind solely the New York Jets. This season, they’ve allowed a passer score of 102.0, which is sixth-worst.
The Ravens are nonetheless a Tremendous Bowl menace as a result of their offense is firing on all cylinders, and Lamar Jackson might properly win his second-straight MVP and third total. However, at this fee, the Ravens offense should carry the protection for the remainder of the season.
