Two groups who’re flying excessive to date this season go head-to-head on this weekend’s massive Premier League recreation.
League leaders Liverpool welcome in-form Chelsea to Anfield for a mouthwatering encounter.
The Reds have been in glorious type below new boss Arne Slot, who’s the primary Liverpool supervisor to win as many as 9 of his first 10 video games accountable for the membership.
Nonetheless, Opta’s energy rating system means that Liverpool have really had the best begin of any Premier League group.
Chelsea, who’ve gained 4 of their final six league outings after shedding to Manchester Metropolis of their opening match, are positive to current an altogether harder check.
Right here, we delve into the information.
What’s anticipated?
Having misplaced three consecutive league video games towards Chelsea between 2013 and 2014, Liverpool have now misplaced simply two of their final 19 towards the Blues (W7 D10).
Certainly, Liverpool are unbeaten of their final six Premier League conferences with Chelsea, although 5 of those have ended degree (W1).
With a latest report that robust, it’s hardly stunning that the Reds are made the favourites by Opta’s supercomputer.
The mannequin offers Liverpool a 59.4% likelihood of taking the three factors, whereas Chelsea got here out on prime in 19.4% of its simulations. The chance of a draw is 21.2%.
Chelsea have gained simply one in all their final 9 Premier League away video games towards Liverpool (D5 L3), and so they went down 4-1 within the corresponding fixture final season.
That massive win for the Reds got here lower than a month earlier than the EFL Cup remaining, which a depleted Liverpool gained 1-0 due to Virgil van Dijk’s header deep into stoppage time, with Chelsea – then in fact overseen by Mauricio Pochettino – handed up 4 massive probabilities, outlined by Opta as a chance from which a group would moderately be anticipated to attain.
However below Enzo Maresca, who’s freshly minted as Premier League Supervisor of the Month for September, Chelsea have been extra medical. Solely Man Metropolis (17) have scored extra targets than the Blues (16), who’ve additionally outperformed their 14.7 anticipated targets (xG), so they are going to be hoping to capitalise on any massive alternatives that come their approach on Sunday.
Getting previous Liverpool’s defence, although, is one other matter.
Strong foundations
Changing a membership legend like Jurgen Klopp was not going to be simple, although Slot is making a great fist of creating it look easy to date.
The previous Feyenoord coach has decreased the chaos and introduced barely extra management to Liverpool’s play, and for probably the most half, this has labored a deal with, bar in that shock 1-0 house defeat to Nottingham Forest in September.
Liverpool have nonetheless registered the third-highest xG within the league over the primary seven video games (14.0), behind Chelsea and Tottenham, however Slot has regarded to construct on a powerful base.
Slot’s group have conceded the fewest targets (two), stored probably the most clear sheets (5), and have the bottom anticipated targets towards (xGA) determine (5.2) of any facet within the Premier League this season.
Within the 266 minutes Liverpool’s Premier League video games have been degree on the scoreline this season, the Reds have confronted simply 16 pictures, a mean of 5.4 per 90. That is each the bottom complete confronted and per 90 confronted when drawing of any facet within the competitors this time period.
They’ve ridden their luck at instances, although. They had been shaky and maybe lucky that Virgil van Dijk didn’t give away a penalty for pulling on Marc Guehi’s shirt within the 1-0 win at Crystal Palace previous to the worldwide break.
That victory got here at a value, too, with goalkeeper Alisson sustaining a hamstring damage that can hold him out till after the November worldwide break.
In Caoimhin Kelleher, Liverpool have a improbable quantity two (and one which needs to maneuver on), although. The Republic of Eire worldwide has all the time stood as much as be counted when required, and because the begin of final season, has recorded a powerful goals-prevented determine of two.9, having conceded 10 targets (excluding personal targets and penalties) from an anticipated targets on track (xGoT) towards of 12.9.
Kelleher additionally performed towards Chelsea within the EFL Cup remaining in February, so he has good latest type towards them.
13 – Caoimhín Kelleher hasn’t conceded a purpose in both of his two finals for Liverpool (each v Chelsea), regardless of going through 13 pictures on track and three.9 xG on track. Elite. pic.twitter.com/JE95cShfoG
— OptaJoe (@OptaJoe) February 25, 2024
High travellers
Chelsea are not any pushovers on the highway, although, so don’t anticipate a repeat of final season’s 4-1 drubbing.
In reality, these two groups are the one ones with a 100% away win charge within the Premier League this season (three wins out of three).
Solely in 2005-06 (4) and 2008-09 (eight) have Chelsea ever gained their opening 4 away matches of a league season.
Maresca, in the meantime, is trying to change into solely the fifth boss to win every of his first 4 away Premier League video games, with one of many earlier 4 to take action being Slot (additionally Bobby Gould, John Gregory, and Luiz Felipe Scolari).
Chelsea will wish to get on the ball, however they might be finest served being affected person and ready for his or her moments to pounce on the break.
Key to that tactic could be Cole Palmer and Noni Madueke, who’ve created 15 probabilities for one another within the Premier League this season, probably the most of any duo.
Certainly, Palmer’s 4 assists for Madueke can be probably the most from one participant for a team-mate to date this time period. Although in Nicolas Jackson and the likes of Joao Felix, Pedro Neto and Jadon Sancho, Chelsea have loads of attackers who can check that imply Liverpool defence.
PLAYERS TO WATCH
Liverpool – Mohamed Salah
Salah has gathered 4.1 xG within the league this season, which is the best of any participant in Liverpool’s squad. With 231 purpose contributions for Liverpool (159 targets, 72 assists), he ranks sixth on the all-time listing for Premier League purpose contributions for a single facet.
The Egypt star has scored 4 targets in 13 Premier League video games towards former facet Chelsea, averaging a purpose each 257 minutes towards the Blues. Amongst opponents he has performed 10+ instances within the competitors, solely towards Burnley (778) does he have a poorer minutes per purpose charge.
Chelsea – Cole Palmer
Palmer has immediately contributed to extra Premier League targets (44 – 28 targets, 16 assists) than every other participant within the prime flight because the begin of final season.
The 22-year-old was named Premier League Participant of the Month for September. He has gained two of the final three Participant of the Month awards, with solely Frank Lampard (4) profitable extra for the Blues than Palmer (two).
