James Tarkowski’s last-gasp volley left Liverpool reeling in a dramatic conclusion to the final Merseyside derby at Goodison Park back in February.
Timed at 97:07, it was the second-latest goal Liverpool have conceded in the Premier League, since Opta began recording such data in 2006-07, after a Robin van Persie strike for Arsenal in April 2011 (97:10).
A lengthy VAR check did not do much to cool the frenzy at Goodison Park, where temperatures boiled over at full-time.
Curtis Jones and Abdoulaye Doucoure saw red, as did Arne Slot and his assistant Sipke Hulshoff.
The Merseyside derby has produced more red cards than any other fixture in Premier League history (25), with the Toffees’ 17 reds against the Reds also the most one team has against another in the competition, so it is not surprising there was a bit of feistiness.
Slot conceded later that he should not have lost his cool, and now the Dutchman will be out to keep his composure as Liverpool welcome their neighbours to Anfield, where they have only lost once to Everton in the 21st century.
David Moyes’ side are unbeaten in nine league games, though, which is Everton’s longest such run since the 2016-17 season, under Ronald Koeman.
Everton last went longer without defeat in December 2013 (10 games). In fact, it is their longest unbeaten run going into a league meeting with Liverpool since February 2010 (also nine), when they lost 1-0 at Anfield, with Moyes at the helm on that occasion, too.
So, this will not be an easy task for Liverpool, whose wobble before the international break saw them drop out of the Champions League and lose meekly to Newcastle United in the EFL Cup final.
However, the Reds are runaway leaders in the top flight and, after a two-and-a-half-week break, will be ready and raring to go.
Here, we dive into the Opta data ahead of Wednesday’s clash.
What’s expected?
Anfield has hardly been a happy hunting ground for Everton. However, there could be a good omen for the Toffees.
They last avoided defeat in both Premier League meetings with the Reds in the same season back in 2020-21. In that campaign, the Goodison derby was drawn 2-2, before Carlo Ancelotti’s Everton went on to win 2-0 at Anfield, with Richarlison and Gylfi Sigurdsson on target, and James Rodriguez pulling the strings in midfield.
And Everton were arguably the better team for much of their most recent encounter, having more shots (10 to six) and limiting Liverpool to just 0.62 expected goals – that is the lowest xG total the Reds have had in any league match this season.
The Toffees, though, looked to have been undone by a moment of magic from Mohamed Salah, before Tarkowski lashed home for a memorable finale.
Twenty-six of the 65 Premier League meetings between Everton and Liverpool have been drawn, with only Chelsea versus Man United finishing level more often in the competition (27).
Indeed, Everton have also drawn more Premier League matches than any other side this season (13), including each of their last four in a row.
But our model is not forecasting a draw as a likely outcome, with the match finishing level in 18.9% of the data-led simulations.
Liverpool’s win probability comes in at a healthy 66.3%, while Everton are given just a 14.8% chance of taking the three points.
A happy derby hunting ground
From 120 derbies at Goodison Park, the honours are even: Both sides have won 41 each of those fixtures (D38).
Yet at Anfield, the record is more one-sided, especially in the modern era.
Liverpool have won their last three Premier League home games against Everton, each by a 2-0 scoreline. They last won more consecutive home league Merseyside derbies between 1990 and 1994 (five), while they have never done so without conceding.
Indeed, Liverpool have lost just one of their last 24 Premier League home games against Everton (W14 D9), winning five of the last six at Anfield.
Liverpool are on 99 wins in this fixture. If they win this match, it will be the fifth time an English league side has beaten another 100 times since the formation of the Football League in 1888 (Arsenal 111 vs Everton, Manchester United 106 vs Aston Villa, Liverpool 103 vs Aston Villa, Arsenal 100 vs Manchester City).
Slot’s team have been superb at home this term, too, losing just one league match, with that defeat coming to Nottingham Forest back in September. They have won 11 times at Anfield in the league and scored 31 goals.
No team in the division has won as many home matches or scored as many home goals as the Reds.
Everton, then, would appear to have their work cut out if they are to maintain their unbeaten streak.
A long time coming?
Then again, records are there to be broken, and Moyes has a pretty unique record that he will wish to snap when Wednesday’s game rolls around.
Moyes has won none of his 19 Premier League away games against Liverpool, the joint-most any manager has faced an opponent on the road without a single victory in the competition.
Remarkably, that is a record he shares with himself. He has also gone 19 Premier League away matches against Chelsea without picking up a single win.
In his first spell at Everton, Moyes drew six of his 11 league visits to Anfield (L5), including his last one in May 2013 (0-0).
And he hardly has a great record against the Reds when factoring in home matches. Indeed, Moyes has won just four of his 38 Premier League games against Liverpool (D10 L24), a win rate of just 10.5% – his lowest against any opponent in the competition.
Moyes’ team have shown plenty of resilience to keep their unbeaten run going in recent weeks, with Jake O’Brien popping up with late equalisers against both Brentford and West Ham.
11 – Only Alex Ferguson (27) and Arsène Wenger (15) have been named Premier League manager of the month more times than David Moyes (11), who has won the award for the first time since March 2013, during his first spell as Everton boss. Throwback. pic.twitter.com/DdpyLBlv47
— OptaJoe (@OptaJoe) March 14, 2025
Everton’s main threat, though, continues to be from set-pieces, even if they have improved in open play since Moyes’ arrival in January.
The Toffees have scored 41% of their Premier League goals this season from non-penalty set-pieces (13/32), a league-high ratio, so Liverpool will have to be wary of such situations – indeed, Beto’s opener in the draw at Goodison came from a quickly taken free-kick.
By contrast, Liverpool have scored the lowest share of their goals in the competition this season from non-penalty set plays at just 6% (4/69).
PLAYERS TO WATCH
Liverpool – Mohamed Salah
Salah has been directly involved in eight goals in his last seven Premier League Merseyside derbies (six goals, two assists), both scoring and assisting in this season’s reverse fixture at Goodison Park. The only players to score and assist in both of their Premier League matches against Everton in a single season are Chris Sutton in 1993-94 and Alan Shearer in 1994-95.
Only Steven Gerrard (nine) has scored more Premier League goals in Merseyside derbies than Salah (eight). As it stands, this will be the Egyptian’s last appearance in this famous fixture, so he will be out to surpass Gerrard’s record.
Salah heads into the run-in chasing some big Premier League records. He is nine goals away from matching Erling Haaland’s competition-best haul of 46 goals in a single season, while Salah is just three goal contributions off equalling the single-season record of 47, set by Shearer and Andrew Cole, and both of those hit that figure in 42-game campaigns.
Everton – Beto
Though Dwight McNeil and Iliman Ndiaye have now returned to training, Dominic Calvert-Lewin remains out of action for Everton, meaning Beto is once again likely to lead the line for the visitors.
Since the start of February, Beto has netted five Premier League goals, a total bettered by only Salah’s eight.
His finishing can be erratic, though, as evidenced by a 25% shot conversion rate. While certainly respectable, up against the other four players to have scored at least four Premier League goals since the beginning of February, the former Udinese forward’s conversion rate is the poorest.
Beto has not found the net since he scored in a 2-2 draw against Manchester United on February 22, failing to score in each of his last three appearances, so a return to scoring form would certainly be welcome for Everton.
