The Kansas Metropolis Chiefs now stand 11-1 after accumulating a 19-17 victory over the Las Vegas Raiders.
5 weeks stay within the 2024 NFL season, through which Kansas Metropolis will host their second division video games towards the Los Angeles Chargers, play the Cleveland Browns in Ohio, face the Houston Texans at dwelling and end the season on the street towards the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Broncos.
Let’s check out the staff’s present playoff image. As we all the time do, we’ll use the New York Occasions playoff calculator to assist us determine what to anticipate. Extra particulars about the way it works are included on the finish of the article.
The Chiefs’ playoff image
Because it stands proper now, Kansas Metropolis has clinched a playoff berth, has a 94% likelihood to win the AFC West (up from 92% every week in the past), a 47% likelihood to win the only AFC bye (down from 52%) and a ten% likelihood to win Tremendous Bowl LIX (down from 11%). Within the AFC, the Buffalo Payments now have the most effective likelihood to win the Tremendous Bowl (19%). Within the NFC, the Detroit Lions (24%) have the most effective likelihood.
These modifications in Kansas Metropolis’s playoff outlook occurred as a result of in Week 13, the Chiefs defeated the Raiders, the Inexperienced Bay Packers beat the Miami Dolphins, the Payments beat the San Francisco 49ers, the Steelers knocked off the Cincinnati Bengals, the Chargers beat the Atlanta Falcons and the Broncos beat the Browns. Apart from Kansas Metropolis’s win over Las Vegas and Miami’s loss to Inexperienced Bay, none of those outcomes improved the Chiefs’ postseason prospects.
The playoff calculator permits us to govern the outcomes of any remaining video games to see the way it modifications issues.
How the Chiefs could make the playoffs
We are able to examine this one off. With the Dolphins’ loss and their victory over the Raiders, the Chiefs clinched a playoff berth for the tenth consecutive season.
How the Chiefs can win the AFC West
With a win over the 8-4 Chargers on Sunday, the Chiefs will lock up their ninth consecutive division title. But when Kansas Metropolis loses, it could nonetheless win the West by profitable the following three video games — or any two of the ultimate 4 with at the very least one Chargers loss. Right here’s the worst-case state of affairs: Los Angeles wins out towards the Chiefs, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Broncos, New England Patriots and Raiders. In that case, Kansas Metropolis might nonetheless squeak by way of by beating the Browns or Steelers — however in that state of affairs, they must win the Week 18 recreation in Denver. Let’s hope it doesn’t come to that.
How the Chiefs can get a first-round bye
Kansas Metropolis nonetheless controls its personal future for the highest seed. Successful its final 5 matchups will get it performed.
Probably the most critical contenders for the No. 1 spot (and the bye week that comes with it) are the 10-2 Payments — who face the Los Angeles Rams, Lions, Patriots and New York Jets (twice) within the final 5 weeks — and the 9-3 Steelers, who will end the season towards the Browns, Philadelphia Eagles, Baltimore Ravens, Chiefs and Cincinnati Bengals.
For the reason that Payments have defeated the Chiefs, they maintain the tiebreaker between them — that means that for every recreation Kansas Metropolis loses, Buffalo should additionally lose a recreation. In any other case, the Payments may have the sting for the primary seed. So the Chiefs can win the highest seed with solely 4 victories — however provided that the Payments lose one other recreation. Kansas Metropolis can prevail with simply three wins — however provided that the Payments are defeated twice and the Steelers lose as soon as. (Thankfully, the Chiefs could make this occur by beating the Steelers themselves).
So it’s nonetheless doable for Kansas Metropolis to wrap this up earlier than the season’s closing recreation. A single loss by the Payments is all it will take — so long as the Chiefs have received the 4 video games earlier than then.
The underside line
Regardless of less-than-favorable outcomes from Week 13, Kansas Metropolis nonetheless controls its postseason future. The AFC West is theirs for the taking. It’s even doable for the staff to loosen up for a second earlier than reaching the mountaintop — however provided that it retains profitable.
In regards to the New York Occasions playoff calculator
The calculator begins with an Elo score (and betting market data) for every NFL staff. This knowledge is used to find out the relative energy of each staff. That, in flip, is used to determine the chance that every staff will win every of its remaining video games. The rest of the season is simulated tens of 1000’s of occasions — and the outcomes of those projections give us the possibilities quoted on this article.
