Common season losses don’t imply all that a lot, till you begin getting quite a lot of them. Then it’s dangerous, however after much more, it begins to turn into good once more. The NBA is unusual.
For the Cs’ functions, although, shedding is disappointing, however not all that related. Regardless of their present 7-6 stoop, the Celtics ought to nonetheless cruise to mid-50s wins and a top-3 seed within the East.
What’s necessary about shedding is studying from the way it occurred and adjusting accordingly, like when I’ve a footrace with my 3.5-year-old child. He learns that I’m larger, quicker, and stronger than him, and that I at all times might be (please permit me this delusion, as a result of ageing is difficult).
Each NBA sport is a wealth of knowledge factors, and the way the Celtics use them might be paramount of their process to repeat. The NBA Playoffs are in the end about mitigating weaknesses greater than it’s about relying in your strengths, and there’s no higher stage for weaknesses than a loss.
So, let’s check out what occurs when the Celtics do stumble and whether or not they can do something to keep away from it, or in the event that they have already got. First up, the unavoidable:
Capturing variance losses
I’ll be trustworthy. There’s simply not an entire lot to glean from a taking pictures variance loss. They occur to everybody. They’re inevitable, like an ice cream headache for somebody with minimal self-control (somebody like me). Nonetheless, right here they’re.
1/5/24 Oklahoma Metropolis – This loss is the freshest in my thoughts and I do know many rushed to crown OKC because the kings of the NBA after they took down the Celtics with out Chet Holmgren or Alex Caruso. Was OKC’s protection wonderful? Sure. Did it make the Cs uncomfortable? Sure. Was their protection the rationale the Celtics shot 3/20 on vast open 3s (no defender inside 6 ft) and eight/39 on vast open and open (defender inside 4-6 ft) 3s? Except they’re piloting some new ball management tech in OKC, then no, no it didn’t.
OKC, on the flip aspect, shot 42% on a wholesome quantity and it nonetheless was a fairly shut sport till the previous few minutes. I pose one query, flip that shot variance and the way a lot do the Cs win by? 25? 30? 40? Sure, it is a coping mechanism, however I’m nice, I promise. I PROMISE OK?
12/23/24 Orlando – Traditional sport of being punished by the basketball gods. Celtics let the undermanned Magic dangle in for a very long time after which they simply stored making photographs. The Cs shot a hearty 24.2% from 3, whereas Orlando made 39.4% regardless of lacking all of their good gamers.
12/7/24 Memphis – Irritating sport. Ja Morant went 4/6 from 3 regardless of taking pictures round 30% for the season getting into that sport. He’s now hit the dizzying heights of 31%. Memphis shot 45.5% as a crew whereas the Cs shot a Morant-esque 30% even. My reminiscences of this sport are of Jaren Jackson Jr. carving up any massive in entrance of him, however actually it got here all the way down to the taking pictures disparity.
Once more, taking a look at these video games, not a ton to takeaway for my part. Typically Ja Morant goes to hit just a few threes he usually wouldn’t. Typically 3 of your finest gamers gained’t rating within the second half. Your favourite anomaly’s favourite anomaly.
Shedding on the margins
By lose on the margins, what I’m actually saying is whether or not the Celtics gained or misplaced the possession battle. How do you create further possessions? Turnovers and offensive rebounds. I additionally put much less inventory in video games the Celtics lose on the margins through the common season than different losses outdoors of taking pictures variance. When the Cs are engaged and firing like within the playoffs, they hardly ever lose on the margins to such a level that it prices them a sport.
With that mentioned, I discover shedding the turnover battle to be extra informative within the common season than shedding the rebounding battle. This model of the Cs has traditionally been a very good to nice defensive rebounding crew and center of the street offensively. Turnovers, however, we now have seen chew the Cs in a playoff setting.
1/10/25 Sacramento – The Kings rebounded 38.8% of their misses within the half courtroom (per Cleansing the Glass). It most likely gained’t shock you that quantity falls into the ninetieth percentile. This challenge is compounded by the very fact the Cs had one in every of their worst offensive rebounding video games of the season, grabbing 22.2% of their misses within the half courtroom (twenty fourth percentile). Yikes. The Celtics additionally misplaced the turnover battle, 12.1% TOV% to fifteen.3% TOV%. The outcome? The Kings took 102 FGAs to the Cs’ 84.
11/12/24 Atlanta – The possession-pocalypse. Atlanta turned the Celtics over 20 instances and had 19 offensive rebounds. Though the Cs did flip Atlanta over 19 instances, the Hawks took 97 photographs to the Celtics’ 75. Not an effective way to win a basketball sport.
Right here’s the excellent news, there’s solely two video games you’ll be able to blame the margins for. Do I nonetheless randomly test for my pockets afraid that Dyson Daniels has stolen it? Sure. Do I nonetheless look over my shoulder afraid Domantas Sabonis goes to return flying over my again? Sure, however with regards to do or die video games within the playoffs, I’m extraordinarily skeptical they’ll permit themselves to lose like this. The Celtics are a really low turnover crew and strong on each ends of the glass. Their solely actual weak spot is forcing turnovers, and they’re trending in the suitable route with that (18th within the league within the final 10 video games). The Cs are excellent on the margins, they usually’ve continued to be all through this considerably disappointing stretch.
The ball stress and rim safety frustrations
This one may be worrying, though a few of it’s effort-based. Groups are inclined to slack on ball stress within the common season besides when issues come down the stretch, however there’s a line. The Celtics have flown previous that line just a few instances this yr into sheer laziness. When the outer crust of your protection will get blown by, it places bigs in a really tough place. They’re pressured to time their assist and make a play on the ball handler. All of the whereas the bottom protection should shift to cowl the serving to bigs’ man. The Celtics weren’t excellent at this for some time.
10/30/24 Indiana – Allowed Indy to shoot 37% of their photographs on the rim (73rd percentile) and 26% briefly mid (76th percentile). Forcing groups into the brief mid-range is often a win, however probably not towards Indy. They’re fifth within the league in accuracy from that vary (though shot beneath their common this sport). Indy generated 62 factors within the paint on this sport.
11/6/24 Golden State – This one is much less about accuracy and extra about quantity. The Celtics held the Warriors to 64.7% on the rim (forty second percentile) and 21.1% briefly mid-range (4th percentile). The issue is that an insane 39% (81st percentile) of the Warriors photographs had been on the rim, and 59% had been on the rim or short-mid. They took 34 photographs on the rim to the Celtics’ 17. Golden State scored 52 or their 118 factors on the rim.
12/25/24 Philadelphia – It pains me to jot down this part, please know that. That is the inverse of Golden State, we stored Philly away from the rim pretty nicely, however after they arrived there, they didn’t miss. Whereas they solely shot 17 photographs there, they made 14 of them. Whereas there was positively some taking pictures variance with this sport, quite a lot of it was because of Maxey getting downhill and spraying out to shooters.
12/29/24 Indiana – Indy shot 32% of their photographs on the rim (52nd percentile) and 30% briefly mid-range (88th percentile). They shot 70.4% (62nd percentile) and 52% (seventy fifth percentile) in these areas respectively. 66 factors within the paint. This was a horrible defensive efficiency, but it surely might need been a very good factor.
I say that as a result of for the reason that second Indy sport, the Celtics have altered their defensive strategy. They’re not leaving their bigs on an island to corral ball handlers and defend the rim. They’ve began sending assist earlier, and it’s working. Right here’s an instance of Pritchard peel switching with Vacation.
It’s an effective way to restrict straight line drives and assist out your bigs. In the event you do it rapidly sufficient, it doesn’t concede a lot of a bonus both. Sacramento doesn’t rating on the play above due to the peel swap, they rating as a result of JB needlessly gambled.
The proof is within the pudding to borrow a euphemism from my nice grandfather, who I by no means met however think about mentioned issues like that.
In the event you replace that quantity with the Pelicans sport, it doesn’t change. The Cs can positively blame just a few losses on rim protection, and you can make an argument for the Memphis sport to fall on this class as nicely, however Mazzulla has performed what nice coaches do. He fastened it.
Poor offensive strategy
That is the one one that offers me some measure of concern. I need to be clear that it’s a fairly small measure. I’m not involved about this crew’s offense long-term, but it surely’s been irritating to observe at instances. The offense has misplaced a little bit of that mismatch searching knife’s edge it had final season and nonetheless has at instances this yr. There are most likely just a few video games you can put beneath this class that I didn’t, like OKC, however in these video games the taking pictures disparity was so vast, that I felt it outmoded an imperfect offensive strategy. There are additionally a number of shut wins that won’t have been so shut if the Cs had been crisper on the offensive finish.
The video games under all have one thing in frequent: they’re all groups that the Celtics completely shouldn’t battle towards offensively. Cleveland has the perfect protection of the bunch (eighth per Cleansing the Glass) however has a number of juicy matchups for the Celtics to assault. Chicago (twenty third) is downright dangerous.
12/19/24 Chicago – The Cs shot 39.2% towards the twenty third ranked protection. 55.3% of their area targets had been assisted, which isn’t an abomination, but it surely’s under common. 47% of their photographs had been above the break threes, good for 99th percentile.
12/1/24 Cleveland – A measly 44.7% of their made area targets, and there weren’t quite a lot of them, had been assisted. Solely 21% of their photographs had been on the rim (eleventh percentile), and an uncharacteristic 13% from lengthy mid-range (ninetieth percentile). Whereas the Celtics didn’t shoot horribly from 3, 34.7%, they shot 40% general. Within the Cs’ protection, they had been lacking Jaylen Brown and Derrick White.
I feel the Celtics are nonetheless understanding the kinks offensively, and taking pictures variance is completely making issues look worse than they are surely. Going by means of this train, I anticipated there to be extra commonality between the Celtics’ losses, and there actually isn’t. They’ve misplaced in a wide range of methods, however the commonest method they’ve misplaced is straight up lacking open photographs.
Maybe probably the most telling stat I discovered isn’t one which highlights their losses however highlights their wings. When the Celtics help on 65% or extra of their made area targets, they’re 14-1. It’s the incorrect strategy to judge this minor tough patch from the angle of “what can they do to cease shedding.” We needs to be taking a look at it from the attitude of “what does this crew do when it wins,” and share the ball and restrict rim makes an attempt are two of the mainstays. Whereas the Celtics’ December was rocky, they’re additionally the entire sudden 5-2 of their final seven. And we all know come the Playoffs, I don’t assume I’ll have all that many examples for any of those classes.
