#1 Auburn vs. #5 Michigan
In what should be a really intriguing contest the Big Ten Conference Tournament Champion is taking on the Southeastern Conference Regular Season Champion. Led by National Player of the Year candidate Johni Broome, the Tigers surround him with prolific shooters. This leads to a difficult choice for defenses: take away the three, or take away Broome. Teams have largely failed to find the proper balance, as Auburn has lost only 5 games this season. Michigan, on the other hand, has a pair of giants roaming the paint in Vlad Goldin and Danny Wolf. The Wolverines take away the three fairly well, allowing teams to shoot a paltry 30.9% from deep. The intriguing part will be what these coaching staffs find to take advantage of. Will Bruce Pearl look to take advantage of having shooters all over the floor and hope that the Michigan bigs can’t guard them on the perimeter? Will he look to put Goldin in positions where he has to guard in space or be forced to switch?On the other side, will Dusty May try to expose the lack of depth that Auburn has when it comes to true big men?
Auburn has been a top two team in the nation virtually all season, but fell off late in the year but clung to the number one overall seed. Likewise, Michigan dropped their final three games of the regular season before rebounding to win the conference tournament. So if both teams have shown themselves to be beatable very recently, what will be the key to victory?
For Auburn, can Broome get it going? In the tournament, he has averaged 11 points and 11.5 rebounds while shooting under 41% from the field, well below his season averages. It will also be key to get a second contributor going, whether that be Tahaad Pettiford Miles Kelly, Chad Baker-Mazara, or Denver Jones. Look for Baker-Mazara to be the key. He’s a veteran with good size for a perimeter player, and it is quite likely that he gets matched up with one of Michigan’s bigs. If he does, how does he make them pay on offense, and how well does he handle the physicality on defense? He struggles to keep him composure at times, and this is a game where he very well could be vital to Auburn’s chances.
For Michigan, can they scheme open looks for their bigs to create pressure at the rim? Auburn doesn’t have great matchups for Goldin and Wolf, meaning they will likely be extremely active on defense and throwing double teams and digs anytime Michigan attempts to post them up. It will be really important that the Wolverines find ways to involve their bigs offensively without expecting them to take on double teams all night, which would likely lead to a lot of turnovers and easy baskets for an active defense like Auburns.
The pick: I think Michigan upsets Auburn behind strong play inside by their bigs. Auburn doesn’t have the man power inside to combat them, and will have to scramble on defense. This will allow Michigan good looks from deep while also putting the Tiger frontcourt in foul trouble. Broome has only fouled out once this season (a loss against Duke). In this one, it will be key for him to not get into foul trouble, but it will be tough not to. Michigan makes their free throws and heads to the Elite 8 in a close one. Michigan 79 Auburn 74.
#2 Michigan State vs. #6 Ole Miss
Michigan State is an interesting team, in that they have bucked the trend that most people refer to as modern offense. In lieu of shooting a lot of three point shots, they put pressure on defenses at the rim and work hard to get to the free throw line, where they get 22.5 opportunities a game. They are led by one of the premiere freshmen in the nation, Jase Richardson. Ultimately, there isn’t much aside from outside shooting that this team doesn’t do well, and with their strong rebounding numbers, it takes an efficient offensive night for a team to beat them.
Ole Miss is led by Sean Pedulla, a 6’1” senior guard. Five other Rebels score in double figures, meaning that Ole Miss can hurt teams in a variety of ways, which keeps defenses off balance. Malik Dia, Jaemyn Brakefield, Matthew Murrell, and Dre Davis are all capable of having big nights and have done so in the tournament. After a stunning blow out of Iowa State, Ole Miss has made it to the Sweet Sixteen for the first time in school history.
In order to knock off the Spartans, Ole Miss will need to be firing on all cylinders, offensively. They are a team that can sometimes get hot from deep, and that’s something that will probably need to happen if they are going to beat Michigan State. They don’t rebound the basketball well enough to hang with Michigan State if they aren’t making their shots, and I have concerns about how they will match up defensively with the Spartans. If they play a near perfect game, they can win, but this is not a game that I see them winning if it becomes a rock fight.
Ole Miss may need to hit threes with volume to come out victorious, but Michigan State guards the three much better than they shoot it themselves, allowing teams only 27.8% shooting from behind the arc on the year. When you don’t shoot a lot of threes, you better make sure that you don’t allow very many and that is exactly what Tom Izzo’s bunch does. Ultimately, I don’t see this game leading the Rebels to the first Elite Eight in program history. Michigan State: 72 Ole Miss: 58
Final Four Prediction
Maybe it is because I am an absolute sucker for seeing rivalry games happen in the tournament, but if this prediction holds, Michigan and Michigan State will face off with a trip to the Final Four on the line. In the two meetings this season, Michigan State came out on top by scores of 75-62 and 79-62. There is a saying in sports that “it’s hard to beat a good team three times.” I don’t buy it, if a team wins both matchups in the season and looks like the better team while doing it, there’s little reason for me to believe this time will be any different. Can Michigan win? Absolutely, they are a quality team with some good pieces. However, Michigan State looks poised to make another trip to the Final Four under Tom Izzo. Prediction: Michigan State 77 Michigan 73.
