(1) Houston vs. (4) Purdue
Houston played a brand of basketball in round one that was typical, but their margin of victory against SIUE was what impressed me most. Remember, I said that that first round matchup could be closer than anticipated. Boy was I wrong. Houston nearly doubled SIUE in points in round one, and then beat Gonzaga by outscoring them. Their defense wasn’t perfect against the Zags, they let up 78 points and let Zags star Andrew Nembhard get to his spots all game, but their offense was able to get them a win here. They hadn’t scored 81 points in a game since a February 1st loss to Texas Tech. L.J. Cryer was their key, he dropped 30 points on 50-50-100 shooting splits against a very good Gonzaga team. Houston also had 4 guys in double figures, while Milos Uzman dished out 8 assists. Overall, I was impressed with the offensive prowess that complimented their typical hounding defensive style from the Cougars during weekend one, but is that offense sustainable after it hasn’t been perfect all season? Will that defense cave in to an excellent and experienced Purdue team? We’ll see.Purdue was dominant during their first two games in the paint. TKR was great in their first-round game against High Point, but his constant dominance against McNeese was very impressive. The Cowboys had been smoking hot, they’d won 23 out of their last 24 games and were coming off a first round upset that had everyone thinking they were this year’s Cinderellas. Purdue had none of that. It was an onslaught from the beginning. Purdue was dominant on the boards and TKR was the reason why. Any time McNeese had a semblance of hope, TKR was there in the post to get an easy two or grab an offensive rebound. Despite the departure of Zach Edey, Purdue remained dominant on the interior. Braden Smith didn’t play his best game against McNeese, he had 8 turnovers against the Cowboys, but his first round performance against HPU won them that game. Will he continue to be streaky in the second weekend? I doubt it. He’s experienced, TKR is a great player and beating two teams who a lot of folks (myself included) had as their upset bids gives teams a lot of momentum. Being doubted is what Purdue wanted, and now we’ve seen that the doubt may have built a monster.
The matchup to watch here will be Braden Smith and LJ Cryer, in my opinion. I know that there will be a lot of banging around in the post, and the offensive rebounding from TKR will be huge if Houston allows it to happen, but ultimately these are two teams that NEED guard play to be at an elite level to win this game. Will Braden Smith fold under the intense pressure from Cryer and company on the wings and commit 5+ turnovers again? Or will he be the calming guide for the Purdue offense who gets them a win. It’ll come down to how he handles that Houston pressure that we all know is coming.
In my eyes, this is Houston’s game to lose. They have the defense, they have the offensive prowess, they have the size… but this is a game between two teams who have notoriously underachieved in March. The way I see this game playing out is beginning with a slow start. A low-scoring first half where it’s anyone’s game. It stays that way for the second half but with more frequent back and forth runs. Then, when it gets to crunch time, I want to pick the best players on the floor to make the big plays. Show me Purdue in a tight victory with big contributions from TKR down the stretch.
(2) Tennessee vs. (3) Kentucky
Fun fact: Loyola-Chicago and George Mason have more men’s final four appearances than the Volunteers. Will that change this weekend? I’m not so sure. Their defense that features two of the finalists for the Naismith DPOY let Wofford hang around for the majority of the game in the opening round. The Vols never trailed in this game, so they were never really on upset alert, but allowing a 15 seed to shoot over 40% from three and outrebound you on the offensive glass isn’t ideal for Mick Cronin’s squad. However, they bounced back against UCLA and their defense earned them a program-best third straight trip to the second weekend. There’s some bright spots and low spots for the Vols heading into this game. The dark spots are that rebounding issue against Wofford and their defense there. By the time this roster got to UCLA, they were clearly locked in on that end of the floor. However, will a few days of rest allow them to continue that momentum, or will it halt it? I can’t say. I will say that Chaz Lanier, who just broke the Vols record for threes in a season, has been fantastic for this team and could be their X-Factor for finally breaking through to the final rounds of this tournament.
On the other hand, the Wildcats have relied on their talent to get wins this tournament. Koby Brea has been a flamethrower. Another fun fact: the Wildcats haven’t seen a Sweet 16 since 2019. Amari Williams has been a difference maker on the glass and on defense for Kentucky as well. His rebounding numbers and blocks are what have allowed Kentucky to stifle both Troy and Illinois in key moments. The Illini held up to their name in their second round game, and fought very hard to keep themselves close with this roster. However, Mark Pope’s defensive minded coaching as well as the Wildcats’ depth was what pulled them ahead during this game. Getting back to relying on their talent, Kentucky won this game with early spurts in the first half and second half, and they never trailed during their underdog win in round 2. I think what I’m most impressed with is that they were not favorited in this game and faced an Xavier team who was smoking hot, and snatched their souls immediately. It was a truly impressive showing from the Cats, who I have winning this game.
It’ll be another battle of the guards in this one. I believe that Chaz Lanier (pictured) and Otega Oweh will determine this game. Both are 6’4 guards who lead their teams in scoring and will have to play well to win this game. So far in March, Lanier has been better for his squad. Tennessee has leaned on him hard. However, Oweh has been the guy for the Cats all year in key moments. Both of these guys are high volume tempo setters for elite rosters, the question is: who will dictate the tempo better? Which one of these guys will do a better job at making the right play and hitting shots when needed? It could go either way, but a duel between these two would be peak March Madness, and I’m all here for it.
In their last matchup in Knoxville, Kentucky got one of their signature wins of the season there. I would like to pick that to happen again. I think with Kentucky’s depth and their (probably) more talented roster they could get an upset here. However, I think the Volunteers are just a better team. I like their starting line up more than the Big Blue Nation’s and I think they’ll be able to rebound as a team and hit will their way through 40 minutes of basketball to a win.
Final Four Prediction:
When it comes to a matchup with Tennessee and Purdue, I really like the Vols finally making it to the Final Four. Could the third time be the charm? Maybe. Maybe it’s just because they’re one of the best teams in the country. I think Purdue will get theirs and their top guys will play great, but I see Tennessee being overwhelming throughout the game and I believe in a war of attrition, the Tennessee Volunteers will win the Midwest Region.
