Stephen Thompson vs. Gabriel Bonfim: Odds, full fight preview and prediction | UFC Nashville

Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) Welterweight talents Stephen Thompson and Gabriel Bonfim will go to war this weekend (Sat., June 28, 2025) inside T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada, for UFC 317.

There is no doubt now that “Wonderboy” is in the twilight of his career. The 42-year-old Karate master is still a slick customer, but he’s grown a bit easier to track down with strikes and takedowns alike as the years continue to tick on by. Though he’s only lost to top talent, his back is unfortunately against the wall after losing four of five.

Conversely, Bonfim is a very talented prospect 15 years his opponent’s junior. The Brazilian suffered a classic prospect loss to Nicholas Dalby in his third UFC appearance, but outside of that learning experience, he’s been very dominant in all aspects of the game, setting him up for a major opportunity here.

Let’s take a closer look at the betting odds and strategic keys for each athlete:

Thompson vs. Bonfim Betting Odds

Stephen Thompson victory: +310
Stephen Thompson via TKO/KO/DQ: +900
Stephen Thompson via submission: +3500
Stephen Thompson via decision: +550
Gabriel Bonfim victory: -395
Gabriel Bonfim via TKO/KO/DQ: +550
Gabriel Bonfim via submission: +125
Gabriel Bonfim via decision: +200
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

How Thompson Wins

“Wonderboy” is perhaps the best Karate representative in UFC history. He moves with great fluidity between stances, allowing him to control distance and score points with his kicks really well. He’s very good at suddenly covering that distance with his punches, and he’ll time hard counters as well.

On the whole, this isn’t a terrible stylistic match up for Thompson. He’s fighter a jiu-jitsu ace with good wrestling and good Muay Thai, not an exceptional wrestler or frightening power puncher. If Thompson can keep his feet moving and deny the early takedown, he has a real shot here.

It all comes down to cage position. Lately, Thompson has been easier to track down along the fence, and it gets him in trouble. From the first bell, his focus has to be on direction changes and intercepting shots up the middle, both of which will help buy him real estate and allow freedom of movement.

As he showed versus Kevin Holland not too long ago, Thompson is still a very dangerous man if allowed to play his game.

How Bonfim Wins

Bonfim is quite experienced and skilled for his age. Perhaps most impressive, he transitions between all his skills nicely, using the threat of his kickboxing to set up his takedowns in a smooth fashion. Once on the canvas, Bonfim is clearly a top-notch grappler and has 13 wins via tapout to his credit.

As mentioned above, this bout will be determined by location. If Bonfim is shooting at distance from Thompson’s kicking range, the takedown isn’t going to come, and he’s in for a rough night. Alternatively, if he’s able to back Thompson to the fence, hit him a time or two, then change levels, that submission prop is looking rather nice.

A fast start seems wise here. We’ve seen Shavkat, Belal Muhammad, and Gilbert Burns wrangle Thompson by rushing him off the first bell. It’s become an increasingly easier option over the year as Thompson gets a little less sharp of a puncher and a little slower generally. Bonfim has the youth and stand up ability to get in Thompson’s face early, take a few punches if needed, and then get the wrestling going.

Thompson vs. Bonfim Prediction

A 15-year age difference is a hard statistic to overlook, particularly when Thompson was looking a bit worn down by 2021. Four years later, I’m not sure he has the grappling to resist such a talented black belt in jiu-jitsu. The margin for error is small, as Bonfim will start to dominate with even a single takedown, and Thompson just isn’t doing damage like he once did.

There’s always a chance that vintage “Wonderboy” styles on his younger opponent — a la Holland, Vicente Luque, and Geoff Neal — but the odds grow slimmer each year.

Prediction: Bonfim via submission