INTRO: SR’s Fab 5 is again this week now that Hurricane Milton is lengthy gone. The Bucs face an enormous sport on Monday Night time Soccer and Tampa Bay might want to put factors up in opposition to a stingy Baltimore protection to have an opportunity to upset the favored Ravens earlier than a nationally televised viewers. Liam Coen’s offense put up 44 out of the staff’s 51 factors final week in New Orleans. Do you need to know what essentially the most spectacular factor about Coen’s offense is? Effectively, I’ll let you know on this week’s SR’s Fab 5 column. Take pleasure in!
FAB 1. The Most Spectacular Factor About Liam Coen’s Bucs Offense
Again in late July earlier than coaching camp, I instructed you that Liam Coen’s offense was going to be good in a earlier SR’s Fab 5. However I wasn’t anticipating it to be this good this quickly.
Because of his earlier play-calling expertise within the SEC, I anticipated Coen to hit the bottom operating as an offensive coordinator and have extra success early on than Dave Canales had final yr as a rookie play-caller. Simply not this a lot success.
I anticipated Coen’s offense to common 24 factors per sport this yr – simply over a discipline objective greater than Tampa Bay’s offense averaged final yr beneath Canales. However Coen’s offense is definitely second within the NFL in scoring at 29.7 factors per sport.
The Bucs have scored 30 factors or extra in 4 of the staff’s first six video games this season and are coming off a season-high 51 factors in Sunday’s win in New Orleans by which Tampa Bay’s offense set a franchise file with 594 complete yards.
Abruptly, the Bucs have a legit operating sport too, averaging 136.8 yards per sport, which ranks eighth within the NFL.
Quarterback Baker Mayfield leads the NFL with 15 landing passes, and his 17 complete TDs are essentially the most within the league by any participant.
All of that is extremely spectacular. Tampa Bay’s offensive manufacturing and scoring output are proper up there with the legendary numbers from the 2020 and 2021 seasons when the legendary Tom Brady was beneath middle.
However do you need to know essentially the most spectacular factor about what Coen is doing in his first yr as an NFL play-caller?
Tampa Bay’s offense is placing up yards and factors with far much less expertise this yr than the Tremendous Bowl LV champion Bucs had in 2020, or the 13-win staff had in 2021.
That speaks to Coen’s excessive soccer I.Q., his creativity and flexibility, and the way rapidly he’s studying on the job this yr and making key changes. It actually is sort of exceptional.
There isn’t a doubt that Mayfield is having a Brady-esque begin to the season that mirrors what the G.O.A.T. did in his first six video games in 2020. And sure, Mayfield has a pair of 1,000-yard receivers to throw to Chris Godwin and Mike Evans – each of whom are tied for the league lead in touchdowns with 5.
Tom Brady’s first 6 video games of his newest Tremendous Bowl successful season:
1,541 yards14 TD4 INT97.8 ranking
Baker Mayfield’s first 6 video games of 2024:
1,489 yards15 TD5 INT109.4 ranking pic.twitter.com/PKECJo6Aj1
— BakerMuse (@MuseBaker) October 16, 2024
However Brady additionally had Evans and Godwin … and had a future Corridor of Fame tight finish to throw to in Rob Gronkowski, along with a large receiver that put up Corridor of Fame numbers in Antonio Brown at his disposal. Brady additionally had a former first-round operating again that had put up 1,000-yard seasons earlier than in Leonard Fournette.
Mayfield doesn’t have that kind of supporting solid. Not even shut.
And that makes what Coen is doing on offense this yr much more spectacular.
It’s Coen’s scheme that’s clicking proper now, and he’s designing methods for Mayfield to get essentially the most out the staff’s younger and inexperienced weapons.
Good defenses can take away a staff’s two high targets within the passing sport.
That’s why even Brady struggled in 2022 when Gronkowski retired and Brown give up on the Bucs on the finish of the 2021 season. Former offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich was uncovered as a sub-par play-caller as a result of when groups doubled Evans and Godwin, he couldn’t give you any inventive schemes to maneuver the ball and put up factors.
Leftwich had no reply, and that’s why he was fired on the finish of the 2022 season and why he can’t get a job teaching anyplace proper now.
Nice defenses with elite secondaries may even take away three choices within the passing sport. However when an offense has 4 legit weapons just like the Bucs did in 2020 and 2021 with Evans, Godwin, Gronkowski and Brown, it’s inconceivable to adequately cowl all of them.
When Brady, the best quarterback of all time, may spot the mismatch in protection previous to the snap, and know precisely the place he wished to go together with the soccer, opposing defenses had little probability at stopping the Bucs offense with that arsenal.
Coen is doing way more with far much less in Tampa Bay, and that’s fairly eye-opening.
He’s received Mayfield enjoying one of the best soccer of his profession proper now, however the high two receivers at Coen’s disposal are a 31-year previous model of Evans and a 28-year previous model of Godwin.
When Brady was throwing to Evans in 2020 and 2021, the longer term Corridor of Fame receiver was 27 and 28 years previous on the time. Godwin was 24 and 25 throughout these seasons and didn’t maintain his severe knee harm till the top of the 2021 season after he had already put up 98 catches for 1,123 yards and 5 touchdowns.
As an alternative of getting a decent finish of Gronkowski’s caliber and even Cam Brate – each of whom mixed for 19 touchdowns throughout the 2020 and 2021 seasons – Coen has Cade Otton and Payne Durham at tight finish. Otton had 4 scores final yr and has only one TD this season. Durham has but to attain in his two-year NFL profession.
The Bucs have had three gamers enjoying the WR3 position this season. Second-year receiver Trey Palmer, rookie Jalen McMillan and veteran Sterling Shepard. They every have one landing this yr up to now and their total manufacturing has been minimal.
The duo of No. 3 receivers Brown and Scotty Miller mixed for 11 landing catches on passes from Brady throughout the common seasons of 2020 and 2021.
But Tampa Bay’s operating again room of Bucky Irving, Sean Tucker and Rachaad White may very well show to be higher than the duo of Fournette and Ronald Jones II by the top of this season. Former Bucs run sport coordinator Harold Goodwin struggled to get a constantly productive floor sport going exterior of the staff’s eight-game successful streak in 2020 that ended with a Tremendous Bowl championship.
Once I requested Bucs head coach Todd Bowles what essentially the most spectacular factor about Coen was previous to the beginning of coaching camp, he instructed me it was how Coen marries the operating sport with the passing sport. Coen’s run sport scheme has actually labored, evidenced by 277 yards on the bottom final week at New Orleans.
I believed it was form of loopy how Coen spent a lot offseason time on the dashing assault throughout OTAs when there have been no pads and the offensive line couldn’t actually provoke any actual contact or blocks. Nevertheless it actually paid dividends.
And at last, the Bucs offensive line throughout the 2020 and 2021 seasons had three Professional Bowlers up entrance in proper deal with Tristan Wirfs, middle Ryan Jensen and left guard Ali Marpet, along with left deal with Donovan Smith and proper guard Alex Cappa, who have been enjoying one of the best soccer of their careers on the time. The road that Coen has to work with is much youthful and fewer skilled.
Wirfs, who moved to left deal with, is the lone Professional Bowler. Tampa Bay has a pair of second-round picks in proper deal with Luke Goedeke and proper guard Cody Mauch along with a first-round rookie in middle Graham Barton and free agent addition Ben Bredeson. The road has expertise, however nowhere close to the expertise that the O-line had again in 2020 and 2021.
There are nonetheless 11 extra video games left and this season is much from over. Robust defenses await Tampa Bay, together with Baltimore this week adopted by Atlanta, Kansas Metropolis and San Francisco earlier than the bye week. We’ll see how these defenses modify to what Coen is doing offensively and the way he responds.
However up to now so nice for Liam Coen’s debut as a play-caller in Tampa Bay. To say Coen has been spectacular up to now is perhaps an understatement.
FAB 2. Not All Bucs’ Scoring Seasons Are Created Equal
I’ve been accused of being too onerous on former Bucs offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich previously as a result of I’ve identified how Tampa Bay’s scoring output fell from 30.1 factors per sport in 2021 to simply 18.4 factors per sport in 2022, which was his final season earlier than getting fired.
Leftwich’s supporters counsel that the Bucs offense was nearly as potent in 2019 when Tampa Bay averaged 28.6 factors per sport with Jameis Winston at quarterback because the offense turned when Tom Brady took over in 2020 and the scoring common nudged as much as 30.8 factors per sport.
However not all scoring seasons are created equal. Leftwich was solely liable for the factors his offense scored. It needs to be famous that Todd Bowles’ protection scored six defensive touchdowns in 2019 and accounted for 42 of the 458 factors the staff scored that yr.
Defensive deal with Ndamukong Suh and inside linebacker Devin White every scored two touchdowns on fumble recoveries, and Sean Murphy-Bunting and Vernon Hargreaves III every had pick-sixes within the 2019 season. So the Bucs offense solely scored 416 factors that yr – truly a median of 24.5 factors per sport offensively.
Bucs Offensive Scoring/Level Totals Yr-By-Yr
2019: 28.6 avg. (6 TDs on protection) 458 complete factors – 416 offensive factors (24.5 avg.)2020 30.8 avg. (1 TD on protection, 1 security) 492 complete factors – 483 offensive factors (28.4 avg.)2021 30.1 avg. (2 TDs on protection) 511 complete factors – 497 offensive factors (29.2 avg.)2022 18.4 avg. (1 TD on protection) 313 complete factors – 306 offensive factors (18 avg.)2023 20.5 avg. (1 TD on protection, 1 security) 348 complete factors – 339 offensive factors (19.9 avg.)2024 29.7 avg. (1 TD on protection) 178 complete factors – 171 offensive factors (28.5 avg.)
When factoring out Antoine Winfield Jr.’s scoop-and-score in final week’s 51-27 win at New Orleans, Liam Coen’s Bucs offense is presently averaging 28.5 factors per sport. That’s not solely superior to Leftwich’s season calling performs in 2019, however it’s truly barely larger than the vaunted 2020 offense that helped Tampa Bay win Tremendous Bowl LV.
Proper now, Coen’s offense ranks second all-time in common factors scored, which is wonderful contemplating his relative newness as a play-caller and the truth that the Bucs offense doesn’t have the identical caliber of weapons because it did throughout Brady’s greatest years in 2020 and 2021, as talked about in Fab 1.
If Coen’s offense continues to gentle up the scoreboard the way in which it has initially of the 2024 season, Bucs followers’ worst nightmares might come true. Coen could also be one-and-done in Tampa Bay and Todd Bowles might have to search out his fourth offensive coordinator in 4 years.
FAB 3. Lack Of A Legit, Beginning-Caliber Tight Finish Is Holding Bucs Offense Again
As wonderful as Liam Coen’s scheme and play-calling have been initially of the season, the one place that’s actually holding the offense again is tight finish. And assist is just not on the way in which. Not this season.
Fortunately, the staff is stocked at large receiver, and Coen makes use of loads of 11 personnel – three-receiver units – as a result of the Bucs’ tight finish room is reasonably pedestrian. Cade Otton, a three-year starter, has both hit or is close to his ceiling as a participant. He’s ideally a No. 2 tight finish within the NFL, however not nearly as good of a blocker or as dynamic as a weapon as Cam Brate was when he was the No. 2 tight finish in Tampa Bay behind Rob Gronkowski.
Payne Durham, a fifth-round draft choose in 2023, is even much less dynamic than Otton is. He doesn’t have the pace to separate and is a median blocker at greatest. Ko Kieft is a one-dimensional blocking tight finish, who is simply common in that division. His calling card is that he is without doubt one of the staff’s higher particular groups protection gamers.
Seventh-round choose Devin Culp has the potential to be a receiving menace, however will want extra time to study the offense and develop. Culp was a part-time starter at Washington, however is inactive as a result of he wants to select up his particular groups play.
The Bucs are scoring just below 30 factors per sport with out a lot contribution from the tight ends. However think about if Coen had a decent finish like Brate in his prime, not to mention a stud like Gronkowski at his disposal. Then, the center of the sphere turns into much more harmful for defenses to cope with.
In 2019, the tandem of O.J. Howard (34-459-1) and Brate (36-311-4) mixed for 70 catches for 770 and 5 touchdowns. However the subsequent yr, in 2020, the Bucs traded for Gronkowski (45-623-7) and he and Brate (28-282-2) and Howard (11-146-2) totaled 84 catches for 1,051 yards and 11 TDs.
The subsequent yr, in 2021, Gronkowski (55-802-6), Brate (30-245-4) and Howard (14-135-1) mixed for 99 receptions for 1,182 yards and 11 TDs. Since then, the manufacturing at tight finish has simply plummeted in Tampa Bay.
In 2022, the Bucs drafted Otton within the fourth spherical and he posted 42 catches for 391 yards and a pair of touchdowns. Brate ended his Tampa Bay profession with 20 catches for 174 yards. Kieft had seven receptions for 80 yards and a TD, whereas Kyle Rudolph posted three catches for 28 yards and a rating.
Tampa Bay’s tight finish manufacturing fell to simply 673 yards and 4 touchdowns on 72 receptions in 2022. Final yr, the Bucs tight ends totaled simply 55 catches for 505 yards and 5 TDs. Otton logged over 90% of the manufacturing with 57 receptions for 455 yards and 5 scores. Durham had 5 catches for 58 yards, David Wells had two catches for minus-10 yards and Ko Kieft had one catch for a 2-yard landing.
Up to now by way of six weeks, Otton has 19 catches for 163 yards and one landing whereas averaging a sub-par 8.6 yards per catch. Durham has one catch for eight yards. That’s it for tight finish manufacturing in Tampa Bay.
Coen is discovering methods to get by with out a lot manufacturing from the tight finish place. Simply think about if he had any form of actual weapon in that room to work with. Possibly Culp will proceed to ascend behind the scenes and be lively for sport days and supply a lift later this season.
FAB 4. What’s Holding Rookie Tight Finish Devin Culp Again?
Even supposing the Bucs had spent three draft picks on the tight finish place over the earlier two years, Tampa Bay drafted one other tight finish this yr in Washington’s Devin Culp within the seventh spherical. Culp was a part-time starter as a receiving tight finish for the Huskies, a program that the Bucs are actually keen on with 5 Washington alums now on the roster.
Extra importantly, Culp’s 4.47 time within the 40-yard sprint on the NFL Scouting Mix, which was the quickest time for a decent finish this yr, would add some pace to what’s a gradual tight finish room. Cade Otton and backup Payne Durham have mixed for simply 32 catches for 171 yards and one landing this yr. That’s a collective – and sub-par – 8.6 yards per catch from the tight finish place this yr.
Definitely the Bucs may use Culp’s pace and talent to make performs down the sphere to assist open up the passing sport much more, proper?
So why has Culp been inactive for all six video games? What’s holding him again from suiting up on sport days?
Two issues. First, Culp is just not the particular groups participant that third-string tight finish Ko Kieft is. If Culp goes to be lively on sport days as a reserve, he’s received to be a consider all 4 phases of particular groups – kickoff protection, kick return, punt protection and punt return.
“There are positively loads of particular groups phases I’m getting used to – the protection items on punt and kickoff,” Culp stated. “I did play on punt returns and kickoff returns in school. I really feel like these are extra my energy and play to my skillset and what I’m used to doing as a blocker. Studying kickoff and punt has been loads of enjoyable and I do know it’s one other gateway for me to have a possibility to get out on the sphere and have some enjoyable. I’m nonetheless making an attempt to develop and study there in all 4 phases of particular groups.”
The second space that’s holding Culp again from being lively is his total information and understanding of the playbook. Durham, the staff’s backup tight finish, has a further yr’s value of expertise within the NFL as a fifth-round choose in 2023. That has given him the sting over Culp when it comes to enjoying time up to now.
“The largest enchancment for me is studying methods to play like a professional,” Culp stated. “Making an attempt to study this method, be assignment-sound, lock in on the main points as a result of that’s the most important step from school to professionals – it’s the ins and outs of each down. It’s understanding what you could do offensively. It’s all of the little particulars. I’m nonetheless a piece in progress.”
Culp got here from a Washington offense that used hand alerts from the sidelines and went up-tempo reasonably than huddling. Tampa Bay huddles after virtually each snap and offensive coordinator Liam Coen will ship two performs to quarterback Baker Mayfield within the huddle to name. Then on the line of scrimmage, Mayfield will decide if the Bucs will use the primary play referred to as, or if they are going to can that decision and swap it to the backup play-call.
That’s taken some getting used to for the rookie tight finish up to now.
“We used alerts at Washington,” Culp stated. “For those who don’t come from a pro-style offense it’s going to be a little bit of a studying curve as a result of generally with the alerts that you just get so locked right into a sport plan that two issues get signaled up and also you simply know what to do. It’s completely different while you are available in and huddle up and listen to all the pieces clearly and know what you must do then, however then at any given momentum – which is just about each play within the NFL – there’s an audible or an choice to ‘can’ (switching the play on the line of scrimmage).
“That’s been an enormous adjustment for me and a studying curve for me. It positively exams your focus as a result of because the observe or sport goes on and also you get drained it turns into more durable and more durable to focus.”
The Bucs are nonetheless excessive on Culp, however he’s probably not prepared but to assist out on offense. And till he masters all 4 phases of particular groups, he received’t be capable to swimsuit up on sport days simply but. Generally it simply takes time for gamers to develop. Not each rookie is a Tristan Wirfs, Antoine Winfield Jr. or Tykee Smith out of the gate.
As operating again Sean Tucker confirmed final week in New Orleans after spending a lot of his rookie season inactive, generally it simply takes time for gamers to develop behind the scenes earlier than they burst onto the scene. Culp is perhaps a kind of gamers for Tampa Bay.
FAB 5. Is Tight Finish Assist On The Method For Tampa Bay?
The Bucs have spent 4 draft picks over the previous three years on the tight finish place. However all 4 picks have been Day 3 picks, and generally a staff will get what its pays for when cut price procuring – not a lot worth.
Cade Otton was a fourth-round choose in 2022 and the staff additionally drafted Ko Kieft within the sixth spherical that yr. Payne Durham was a fifth-round choice final yr and Tampa Bay used its final choose on Devin Culp within the seventh spherical this previous April.
Otton is clearly one of the best of the bunch, however is ideally a No. 2 tight finish. Culp is the unknown commodity, and the staff may use an improve over Durham and Kieft, as each have proven that they’re replaceable.
The free company class at tight finish in 2025 is underwhelming and stuffed with getting old expertise over the age of 30 or near it, and it’s extra seemingly that the Bucs would spend a extra premium draft choose on one other tight finish than it might be to signal a veteran – until it was an affordable, one-year prove-it deal. The final tight finish Jason Licht signed, veteran Kyle Rudolph in 2022, didn’t pan out.
The category of tight ends within the 2025 NFL Draft seems to be to be common at greatest, however there are some intriguing gamers, particularly from a receiving standpoint. It’s uncertain that this group has a first-round-caliber tight finish. However Bowling Inexperienced’s Harold Fannin Jr., Penn State’s Tyler Warren or Michigan’s Colston Loveland would possibly come shut.
Bowling Inexperienced TE Harold Fannin Jr. – 6-4, 230 – Junior
Fannin is within the Devin Culp-mold as an undersized tight finish who’s extra receiver than blocker. He’s one of the best weapon at Bowling Inexperienced and one of many high receivers within the nation at any place with 50 receptions for 702 yards (14 avg.) and 5 touchdowns. Fannin is tied for fifth within the nation in receptions and might stretch the sphere vertically, evidenced by a 65-yard landing. He has 5 profession 100-yard video games, together with 4 this season.
Penn State TE Tyler Warren – 6-6, 261 – Senior
After catching 34 passes for 422 yards (12.4 avg.) and 7 touchdowns final yr, Warren is being featured in Penn State’s offense this season already has 40 receptions for 513 yards (12.8 avg.) and 4 receiving touchdowns by way of six video games. He’s coming off a monster sport in a 33-30 time beyond regulation win at USC the place he tied the NCAA file for catches by a decent finish with 17 for 224 yards (13.2 avg.) and one TD. Warren additionally has a dashing landing and a receiving TD this yr.
Michigan TE Colston Loveland – 6-5, 245 – Junior
Loveland has 29 catches for 261 yards (9.0 avg.) and two touchdowns this yr and has been far much less dynamic than he was final yr when J.J. McCarthy was throwing him the soccer. Loveland had 45 receptions for 649 yards (14.4 avg.) and 4 TDs in serving to the Wolverines win a nationwide championship.
Syracuse TE Oronde Gadsden II – 6-5, 235 – Junior
Gadsden, the son of former Dolphins large receiver Oronde Gadsden, is extra like an enormous large receiver than a decent finish. He’s a really fluid route runner who put up enormous numbers in 2022 with 61 catches for 966 yards (15.8 avg.) and 6 TDs earlier than a Lisfranc foot harm sidelined him for all however two video games. Gadsden has made a triumphant return to the sphere with 32 catches for 433 yards (13.5 avg.) and three TDs up to now in 2024.
Utah TE Brant Kuithe – 6-2, 230 – Redshirt Senior
Kuithe is in his seventh yr at Utah after lacking a lot of the 2022 season with a torn ACL and sitting out the 2023 marketing campaign with a medical redshirt. Though he’s undersized and can flip 25 in December, Kuithe would possibly carry a Day 3 draft grade attributable to his aggressive enjoying fashion and talent to place factors on the board. Kuithe has scored 20 receiving touchdowns and ran for 5 extra on finish arounds. This yr, he has 20 catches for 313 yards (15.7 avg.) and 4 TDs.
Different names to know throughout the second half of the faculty soccer season embody Texas’ Gunnar Helm (21-311-14.8-2), Oregon’s Terrance Ferguson (20-321-16.0-0), North Carolina’s Bryson Nesbit (24-264-11.0-3), Ball State’s Tanner Koziol (46-434-9.4-3), Clemson’s Jake Briningstool (24-289-12.0-4) and Vanderbilt’s Eli Stowers (25-333-13.3-1). Tampa Bay is just not glad with its roster on the tight finish place and we’ve seen that Licht isn’t afraid to surrender on gamers he’s drafted if there are upgrades to be discovered elsewhere.
Count on the Bucs to maintain drafting tight ends till they lastly discover a playmaker that may add some extra pop to the passing sport.