Final offseason, the Diamondbacks have been in the hunt for a marquee starter to pair with Zac Gallen atop their rotation. The market was skinny on the prime – Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Shohei Ohtani have been most likely by no means out there to them, so their greatest choices have been Sonny Grey, Blake Snell, Eduardo Rodriguez, Shota Imanaga, and Jordan Montgomery. They signed two of these guys, and neither delivered the rotation-stabilizing efficiency that they had anticipated. However as an alternative of waving their arms within the air and raving on the injustice of variance, the Diamondbacks received proper again on the horse:
BREAKING: Corbin Burnes to Diamondbacks, $210M, 6 years. choose out after 2 years
— Jon Heyman (@jonheyman.bsky.social) 2024-12-28T06:32:12.313Z
Corbin Burnes was the very best free agent pitcher out there. In every of the final 5 seasons, he’s been one of many prime pitchers within the recreation, racking up a 2.88 ERA, 3.01 FIP, and 816 innings pitched. He’s second in WAR (21.7) over that timeframe, second in RA9-WAR (23.2), second in strikeouts (946), and third in innings pitched. In different phrases, he’s been a capital-A Ace, a set-it-and-forget-it selection on the prime of the beginning rotation. He’ll obtain $35 million a yr for six seasons, with an opt-out after the second yr of the deal, which additionally features a $10 million signing bonus.
With Gallen additionally on their dance card, the Diamondbacks have probably the greatest one-two combos within the majors. That doesn’t even embody Merrill Kelly, a borderline All-Star when wholesome, or Brandon Pfaadt, who regarded like he was lastly breaking out earlier than a tough last two months of the season. Add in Montgomery and Rodriguez, and Arizona goes six deep with believable playoff starters. That’s the way you injury-proof a rotation – sheer depth.
I’m curious to see how Burnes’ profession arc will play out. He burst onto the scene in 2020 with a reworked fastball and wipeout slider that powered him to gaudy strikeout totals. He’s continued to transform that chopping fastball seemingly yearly, altering its form and utilizing it to rack up weak contact as an alternative of to arrange strikeouts. That nasty slider that served him so properly is now a backup plan; fairly, he leans on a giant, two-plane curveball that he’ll throw in any depend to any hitter.
The results of this reinvention? Burnes has remodeled right into a command-and-grounders pitcher as an alternative of a short-stint strikeout artist. His 2021 Cy Younger marketing campaign lined solely 167 innings; he missed a number of turns that yr due to sickness, but additionally not often labored late into the sport. He’s eclipsed 190 innings in each season since then, whereas placing out fewer batters every year.
It’s truthful to say that Burnes is not the electrical man he was in 2021. It’s additionally truthful to say that he’s extremely efficient in his present kind. He’s averaged roughly 4.0 WAR and a 3.00 ERA over roughly 200 innings in every of the final three years. Perhaps that’s not the manufacturing of a top-five starter general, however he’s nonetheless clearly probably the greatest pitchers in baseball. He turned 30 in October and doesn’t have an enormous damage historical past or debilitating innings load. It’s affordable to count on Burnes to hold on in the same kind for the foreseeable future.
After all, that’s only one approach issues can go. Pitchers with declining strikeout charges generally flip into pumpkins. That’s why Burnes received Stephen Strasburg cash as an alternative of a Gerrit Cole deal. If he retains up his latest kind for the following half-decade, he’ll be a significant discount for the Diamondbacks, although the opt-out limits simply how nice it may be from the crew’s facet. I’d fairly have Burnes on this contract than Snell or Max Fried on those they signed, although all three contracts are fairly related general. ZiPS thinks all three offers have been overpays relative to mannequin worth; it could give Burnes six years and $182 million for the next projection:
ZiPS Projection – Corbin Burnes
12 months
W
L
ERA
FIP
G
GS
IP
H
ER
HR
BB
SO
ERA+
WAR
2025
14
7
2.97
3.29
30
30
181.7
151
60
16
51
179
139
4.2
2026
13
7
3.09
3.38
29
29
172.0
148
59
16
48
165
134
3.8
2027
12
6
3.18
3.47
27
27
164.0
144
58
15
46
153
130
3.5
2028
11
7
3.30
3.60
26
26
152.7
139
56
15
43
138
126
3.1
2029
11
6
3.41
3.75
24
24
147.7
139
56
15
42
129
121
2.8
2030
9
7
3.62
3.95
22
22
131.7
129
53
15
39
111
114
2.2
I may write for hours about Burnes. I’ve, the truth is, on various events. However essentially the most notable a part of this deal to me is that Arizona is the one handing out the cash. The Diamondbacks made the World Collection in 2023 with a $124 million payroll. They pushed that quantity up final yr chasing a repeat efficiency, after which missed the playoffs by a single recreation. However as an alternative of standing pat or retreating, they’re pushing the finances up once more and including to the crew.
That’s a smart move given the best way the crew is constructed. The rotation is nice proper now, however Gallen and Kelly are free brokers after this yr. Ketel Marte, Lourdes Gurriel Jr., and Eugenio Suárez will most likely by no means be higher than they’re proper now. Corbin Carroll and Gabriel Moreno are able to contribute to a championship crew. That is the Diamondbacks’ window, they usually’re appearing like they understand it.
Does it matter that they’re taking part in in the identical division because the world-conquering Dodgers? I imply, I’m certain they aren’t thrilled about that, but it surely’s merely a truth of life at this level. The NL West is a troublesome division, and that isn’t going to alter any time quickly. So as an alternative of pouting and punting, the Diamondbacks are doing no matter they will to maintain tempo with Los Angeles. Good for them!
To be clear, the Dodgers are nonetheless very a lot the favorites within the division. Nevertheless, the Diamondbacks at the moment are squarely the second-best membership within the NL West, and that’s a nice place to be, as a result of nowadays they don’t have to win the division. Heck, they don’t even have to be the very best of the non-division winners, as a result of three Wild Card groups make the playoffs. Their younger core is powerful sufficient to make a push now, and that requires outdoors additions. Arizona additionally understands that this window received’t final perpetually, and Burnes’ opt-outs provides to the crew’s urgency to strike whereas the iron is sizzling. Certain, if Burnes pitches properly, the Diamondbacks may lose him in a number of years. However that’s OK — the following two seasons have been all the time going to be their most vital ones. If the opt-outs have been essential to get the deal accomplished, then so be it.
Even higher, the Diamondbacks improved their roster in a approach that’s each useful throughout the common season — Burnes pitches plenty of innings — and scary in a brief playoff sequence. They now have Burnes, Gallen, and Kelly to anchor their postseason rotation, and if Montgomery returns to his 2023 kind or Pfaadt takes one other step ahead, one in every of them may leap Kelly on the depth chart and provides Arizona a fair higher trio. Both approach, the Diamondbacks are positioned to carry out properly in a best-of-three Wild Card sequence, which might be the place they’ll find yourself in the event that they make the playoffs, contemplating, properly, the Dodgers.
The hits simply preserve coming. The Giants have been reportedly in on Burnes too, they usually’re each a divisional foe and a competitor for a Wild Card berth. They’ve loads of cash to spend and severe pitching wants, however now there isn’t anybody they will flip to for the same impression on their rotation. Jack Flaherty? Nick Pivetta? Burnes was the one marquee identify left, so the Diamondbacks managed the uncommon double of enhancing their roster whereas additionally meaningfully limiting their competitors’s choices with a single signing.
Perhaps it seems like I’m too optimistic about this deal. There are, the truth is, loads of methods it may go fallacious. Pitching contracts are all the time dangerous, as a result of pitching is dangerous. Elbows are finicky physique components, shoulders aren’t a lot better, and generally a mile an hour of velocity is the distinction between dominating and getting shelled.
However even taking all of those into consideration, may you discover a higher, extra dependable pitcher than Burnes? He’s constant, and he delivers quantity. He doesn’t do it with any pitches that make you surprise how his ligaments stay hooked up, and he’s younger sufficient that even when he have been to overlook a season with damage, he may nonetheless come again robust. Certain, I’d fairly have Tarik Skubal or George Kirby going ahead, however these guys weren’t out there. Burnes was, and he’s not a lot worse than them.
No free agent deal is ideal. There are all the time dangers that include spending a lot cash on a single participant. It’s expensive, but it surely’s additionally essential. So should you’re going to play the free agent market, do it like Arizona simply did. Signal an elite participant at his peak at exactly the second when your crew wants an elite participant at his peak. In the event you can, signal him to a deal that might preserve him round for years to return, however greater than something, ensure you have him whereas your aggressive window is open — when your crew is about as much as reap the benefits of his contributions. Fairly merely, this is without doubt one of the most closely fits of crew and participant thus far this winter.
