“Situational Analysis” is a series of articles that seeks to examine the circumstances that most often influence an NBA prospect’s success. Each player will be scored on a scale from 1-10 in four different categories: NBA-specific skill(s), fatal flaw(s), collegiate/overseas/pre-NBA environment, and ideal NBA ecosystem.
Airious “Ace” Bailey is an 18-year-old (19 in August) wing from Chattanooga, Tennessee, who averaged 17.6 points, 7.2 rebounds, and 1.3 assists for the Rutgers Scarlet Knights. He is expected to be the selected in the upper half of the lottery in the 2025 NBA Draft. NBADraft.net currently has him projected at No. 4.
NBA-Specific Skills
If a video editor were to cherry pick all the best Ace Bailey highlights for a 5-minute hype video, the player in that video would have a compelling case to go No. 1 overall – yes, even ahead of Cooper Flagg.
Bailey at his best is this draft’s most intriguing offensive talent. Hardly anyone in this draft class or even in the NBA has Bailey’s reported combination of height (6-10 in shoes), length (8-8 standing reach), shooting ability, and open-court athleticism. Bailey runs like a gazelle, glides like a gull, and shoots like an assassin.
Bailey is a terror in transition. He can fill the lane for athletic lobs or spread to the wings for spot-up 3s. With a high release point and extremely quick/fluid mechanics, Bailey is often open even when he’s being defended. He shows excellent footwork on his jumper, finding his balance even after running full speed.
Bailey is the type of player who can go on double-digit runs all on his own. When he sees a couple shots go down, his eyes get big and he enters that rare “HE’S ON FIRE!” NBA Jam territory. In the parlance of NBA mixtape merchants, Ace Bailey is a problem.
Defensively, Bailey is long and athletic enough to switch all over the floor and provide ample rim protection (1.3 blocks per game). He is a better rebounder than he’s given credit for, and he can turn those boards into quick offense the other way.
The best version of Bailey has serious star potential and an All-Star ceiling. His biggest fans see him as the second coming of Paul George.
On a scale from 1-10, Bailey’s offensive upside rates at a 9.
Fatal Flaws
The problem with those 5-minute mixtapes? They leave out all the bad stuff.
If Bailey’s shot isn’t falling, he can simply vanish from the game. To see a player this talented mentally check out as frequently as Bailey does raises more than a few red flags.
Bailey can drift for huge swaths of a basketball game without making a single play on either end. You’ll forget he’s out there – unforgivable for someone this big, this athletic, and this talented.
Bailey and Dylan Harper arrived at Rutgers with the intent of turning a mediocre program into a power, but it didn’t quite happen that way. But even during losses, Harper continued to make plays and get to the rim. Bailey, due to his surprisingly mediocre ball handling, needs someone else to create offense for him at this stage. In the parlance of NBA mixtape merchants, Ace Bailey doesn’t have much of a bag – not yet, anyway.
His drifting isn’t exclusive to offense. He can get caught ball-watching on defense, and he can get caught out of his defensive stance if a team swings the ball around with pace.
There are also rumors that Bailey is not as tall as he claims to be. At 6-10, Bailey’s upside is fascinating. At 6-7/6-8, less so. Fair or unfair, NBA prospect analysis is a cold business.
Thus far, Bailey seems to have coasted on his physical gifts and his beautiful jump shot at the detriment to the rest of his all-around game. He doesn’t have the same kind of feel as other elite prospects. He does not pass the ball or make plays for others (negative assist/turnover ratio). He can struggle to keep his cool if things aren’t going his way.
His upside is undeniable. But there are plenty of obstacles Bailey will need to overcome to achieve it.
On a scale from 1 (not a concern) to 10 (serious hindrance), Bailey’s limited all-around game rates at an 8.5.
Pre-NBA Setting
It’s hard to overstate how dominant Ace Bailey was in high school. Only Cooper Flagg outranked him in every major recruiting service. Despite not participating in many high-profile AAU tournaments, Bailey’s reputation gained steam, earning him coveted spots on all the name-brand prep teams.
A quick scan of his high school box scores and his YouTube highlights had Rutgers fans believing they landed the evolutionary Lamar Odom when Bailey decided to join Harper in New Jersey. However, the Scarlet Knights lost. A lot.
It still defies logic just how bad this team was. Sure, the supporting cast wasn’t quite there, and the coach was overmatched, but this is college basketball. Players as good as Harper and Bailey should not lose this many games.
Once the losses started piling up, Bailey seemed to check out and set his sights set on the NBA draft. But he has struggled to regain his pre-Rutgers momentum, falling on many mock drafts from No. 3 – behind only Flagg and Harper – to No. 4 on NBADraft.net or even as low as No. 6-7 on other mock drafts.
Perhaps this will light a much-needed fire under Bailey. It would be a shame to see this much talent go unrealized.
On a scale from 1-10, Bailey’s pre-NBA career rates at a 5.5 – a 9 in high school, a 2 in college. Let’s split the difference.
Ideal NBA Ecosystem
Ace Bailey needs to tighten up his ball handling, first and foremost. Second, he needs a coach/organization that will hold him accountable and not let him coast.
There is serious Andrew Wiggins potential here. Wiggins came into the NBA with every tool in the toolbox but only occasionally put them all to use. Michael Porter Jr. is another useful comparison – a player who could have easily drifted into mediocrity if not given the opportunity to play alongside Nikola Jokic and contribute to a championship effort.
Bailey reminds me a bit of those tantalizing prospects in the 2000s who never quite put it all together – Darius Miles, Anthony Randolph, Andrea Bargnani – but the right infrastructure can help Bailey fulfill his potential.
Philadelphia is the team most often mocked to take Bailey. With Paul George on the roster, Bailey could pattern his game after his best-case scenario (albeit at a diminished physical condition) and give the Tyrese Maxey/Jared McCain backcourt an ideal lanky floor spacer and transition dynamo.
If the Sixers pass, Charlotte would have a hard time passing on his talent at No. 4. He is somewhat duplicative of Brandon Miller, but the Hornets need as much talent as they can get, and a Miller/Bailey forward combination would be difficult to handle.
Things get Dicey if Bailey slides to that Utah/Washington/New Orleans/Brooklyn zone. Philadelphia (Nick Nurse) and Charlotte (Charles Lee) have coaches who would hold Bailey to a high standard, even if their organizations are in a bit of a funky spot right now.
On a scale from 1-10, Bailey’s situational dependence is a 9. He has all the talent in the world to be a highly productive NBA player for 15 years, but he might need to catch a few breaks during his rookie contract to get set on the right track.
