Aaron Schatz, the godfather of the favored DVOA effectivity metric, simply launched the 2024 version of the FTN Soccer Almanac. That is the second yr in a row that this treasure trove of superior analytics has been revealed via the FTN Fantasy platform, following the unhappy collapse of Soccer Outsiders.
Having learn via the Seattle Seahawks chapter (plus supplemental materials), I’ve jotted down some notable statistics and key factors on both facet of the ball which will affirm your priors or go away you asking extra questions. For what it’s price, I’ve additionally taken a look on the Baltimore Ravens chapter due to the arrival of head coach Mike Macdonald, however I’ll go away that for one more time.
Let’s get going!
Offense
The Seahawks had a large disparity in play-action vs. straight dropback passing
When the Seahawks used play-action passing they had been a pressure, averaging a formidable 9.1 yards per play. When it was time for straight dropback? Simply 5.8 yards per play. Seattle and the Baltimore Ravens had the largest DVOA differential (by a giant margin, too) when it got here to PA vs. non-PA.
What’s fascinating is that the San Francisco 49ers, Los Angeles Rams, Cincinnati Bengals, and Miami Dolphins are all within the top-10. Widespread theme amongst these groups, in addition to the Seahawks? The offensive coordinators/playcallers are both Kyle Shanahan or Sean McVay, or a disciple of Shanahan or McVay. This isn’t uniform, as Matt LaFleur’s Inexperienced Bay Packers had been really worse when utilizing PA.
I feel we are able to infer that Seattle’s third down struggles concerned loads of apparent passing conditions, and the outcomes had been usually ugly.
Kenneth Walker is particular
Solely Breece Corridor (77) and Christian McCaffrey (77) broke extra tackles than Kenneth Walker (72). His damaged deal with price of 29 % was additionally third-best amongst all offensive gamers. He could get dinged for improvising/going off-script a bit an excessive amount of, however who can blame him when…
The Seahawks dashing assault was the worst it’s been since 2017
Final season was Seattle’s worst rush DVOA for the reason that traditionally unhealthy 2017 group. The offensive line allowed a excessive stuff price (twenty sixth) on the line of scrimmage. Seattle ranked within the top-half for second-level and open subject yards, however should you don’t ever get there within the first place you then’re screwing over Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonnet. Each deal with spots had been a large number when it comes to Adjusted Line Yards (ALY), comprehensible given the accidents at each positions.
DK Metcalf, Jaxon Smith-Njigba carried the YAC
Tyler Lockett’s yards after catch per reception was simply 2.7, his worst over the previous three seasons. In the meantime, DK Metcalf rose to five.6, greater than double what he managed in 2022 when he was (at the very least to me) used nearly like a possession receiver. Jaxon Smith-Njigba was 5.8, however that retains in thoughts what number of of his routes had been at or behind the road of scrimmage and designed for yards after catch. The issue for JSN was he was not efficient on out routes, one thing you hope can enhance with extra time on the apply subject with Geno Smith. Metcalf, in the meantime, was among the many top-20 receivers in DVOA (worth per goal) and DYAR (complete worth).
The very best move protector is now not on the crew
Final yr I wrote about how Damien Lewis had the bottom strain price allowed on your complete Seahawks offensive line. His 1.5% strain price was an enchancment from 2023 and third greatest amongst all guards (2nd amongst left guards). It isn’t a coincidence that he was wanted by the Carolina Panthers, and he’s technically the one offensive lineman John Schneider has ever drafted whose first post-Seahawks contract averaged at the very least $10 million/yr.
Charles Cross’ strain price elevated from his rookie season, which is regarding, whereas Phil Haynes, Jake Curhan, and Stone Forsythe had been strain machines relative to their positions. You possibly can perceive why George Fant was introduced again as a extra stabilizing pressure.
Was Geno Smith really higher in 2023?
Geno’s uncooked statistics had been down from 2022, and the main lulls the offense skilled make it appear implausible that Geno Smith didn’t regress from his first season as Seahawks starter. And but… his DVOA was larger than 2022 (10% vs. 7.9%) and he was nonetheless within the top-third amongst all certified beginning quarterbacks.
Right here’s what the almanac needed to say:
By our numbers, Smith was even higher final yr than he was in 2022, displaying that his shock return to prominence two years in the past was no fluke. Sure, Geno’s uncooked numbers went down—completion price, landing price, yards per try, et cetera. However Smith confronted a way more tough slate of defenses in 2023 than he did in 2022 and we give him credit score for not turning again right into a pumpkin.
The offensive line was injured/regressed closely and the defensive schedule included the elite San Francisco 49ers protection (on a brief week after struggling an damage), the top-rated Cleveland Browns, Mike Macdonald’s Baltimore Ravens, and the turnover-feasting Dallas Cowboys.
I totally perceive should you lean the opposite means and consider absolutely the elite QBs can overcome these obstacles, nevertheless it does put into perspective a few of his statistical performances. I’m not completely persuaded but in addition consider Geno wasn’t as mediocre because the stats indicated.
Protection
Pete Carroll’s obsession with not getting crushed deep (as soon as once more) got here on the expense of getting killed on quick passes
One of many few positives in regards to the 2023 Seahawks protection was how they defended deep passes. Seattle was tenth towards throws that traveled 16 or extra air yards. That’s superb and dandy and one of many common strengths of this protection. The issue is that they repeatedly get drilled on beneath stuff; they had been twenty eighth by DVOA towards quick passes after rating thirty second in 2022.
For perspective, the Baltimore Ravens had been thirty first vs. deep passes in 2022 underneath Mike Macdonald. By 2023 they improved to second and had been additionally seventh towards quick passes.
It barely mattered whether or not the Seahawks generated strain or not
Once we did this metric assessment final season, the Seahawks had been tenth by DVOA when pressuring the quarterback and twenty fourth with out strain. So at the very least there was one thing constructive when Seattle was capable of collapse the pocket.
The 2023 Seahawks had been a low level. They weren’t any good whether or not they received dwelling or didn’t.
DVOA with strain: -48.9% (twenty ninth)DVOA with out strain: 41.1% (twenty fifth)
In the meantime, the Baltimore Ravens had been 1st by DVOA with strain and drop all the best way right down to 2nd with out strain.
Seahawks tackling was a horror present
No crew was worse at getting the ball-carrier to the bottom than the Seahawks. Seattle led the league with 154 damaged tackles (though this was twenty ninth in damaged tackles per contact, so that they had been tops for simply the uncooked complete). It is a main change from their above-average efficiency in 2022. Riq Woolen was 4th amongst all cornerbacks in damaged tackles with 12, and I suppose that’s a form statistic since a whiff is technically not a damaged deal with.
Quandre Diggs and Woolen each had missed deal with charges north of 20 %.
Riq Woolen’s struggles had been principally tackling and penalties, not giving up completions
Whereas Riq’s second season was disappointing in comparison with his excellent rookie marketing campaign, it wasn’t as a result of he immediately was giving up enormous catches on a weekly foundation. His success price* when focused was 51%, similar to his quantity final season. Devon Witherspoon was greatest on the crew at 56%. The place Woolen fell aside was the aforementioned missed tackles, but in addition penalties. Whether or not the penalties had been justified or not, Woolen was dinged for 9 accepted flags and 122 penalty yards. Solely the Atlanta Falcons’ A.J. Terrell gave up extra defensive move interference yards than Woolen’s 102.
Between the missed tackles, the penalties, and the blown coverages that received’t all the time present up on stat sheets, Woolen’s miscues had been unfold elsewhere and need to be cleaned up if he’s to recapture his rookie type.
(“Success Fee” Definition: The proportion performs of focusing on this participant on which the offense didn’t have a profitable play. This implies not solely incomplete passes and interceptions, but in addition quick completions which don’t meet our baselines for fulfillment – 45% of wanted yards on first down, 60% on second down, 100% on third or fourth down.)
Devon Witherspoon is superb
Solely two rookies completed within the top-20 in passes defensed: Devon Witherspoon and the Detroit Lions security Brian Department. Witherspoon was tied for fifth with 16 PDs, made all of the extra spectacular by the truth that he missed three video games but was nonetheless probably the most focused nook on the crew. His common yards per move allowed was simply 6.1 yards, and his common depth of goal was solely 9.1 yards. Opposing QBs weren’t eager on difficult Witherspoon down the sector all that a lot.
Boye Mafe’s second yr leap was actual
The one Seahawks participant within the top-20 in pressures was Mafe, whose 54 mixed sacks + hits + knockdowns was just one behind Myles Garrett and tied for tenth with Haason Reddick, Montez Sweat, and Kayvon Thibodeaux.
Bobby Wagner nonetheless had vital worth as a run stopper
The Seahawks run protection was a large number, however one of many few vivid spots was present Washington Commanders linebacker and Seattle legend Bobby Wagner. Whereas he is probably not in prime athletic form anymore, he nonetheless offered Seattle with 13 run tackles for loss (third within the NFL) and a mean achieve of simply 2.9 yards on run stops. The issue? Everybody else on that listing had not more than 90 tackles. Wagner had 116, indicative of the lopsided snap counts in favor of Seahawks opponents.
There’s an entire lot extra however we don’t have all day and that is already a protracted publish.
When you’ve got any extra questions you may ask me within the feedback part! I’ll in all probability have extra articles based mostly on the almanac date. And should you’d slightly simply learn it your self, you should buy the FTN Soccer Almanac right here.
