There’s a big likelihood that the Seattle Seahawks will trot out a beginning offensive line solely consisting of their very own draft picks. It’s been rattling close to 20 years because the Seahawks have had a universally acknowledged top-level offensive line, and the hope is that this set of picks is the beginning of one thing particular.
Spoiler: Don’t be shocked if we’re in for powerful sledding.
This was the storyline for the injury-riddled Seahawks OL final season…
The group that began towards the Cardinals entered the sport with 74 profession begins value of expertise.
(For comparability, the 2016 line of Fant-Glow-Hunt-Ifedi-Gilliam line that delivered a horrific efficiency towards the Bucs entered the sport with 51 begins.) https://t.co/G9p1hyCUD5
— John P Gilbert (@JohnPGilbertNFL) October 22, 2023
With Damien Lewis, Evan Brown, and Phil Haynes all gone, it’s a brand new day for Seattle’s inside offensive line. Even the tackles are nonetheless midway by way of their rookie contracts.
If we assume that Christian Haynes, a profession proper guard at UConn, will transfer to left guard and the Seahawks won’t trouble preserving veteran Laken Tomlinson round, right here’s the expertise (or lack thereof) for Seattle’s hypothetical 2024 OL:
Potential Seahawks Week 1 beginning offensive line
LT Charles Cross: 31 begins (1,927 snaps)
LG Christian Haynes: 0 begins (rookie)
C Olu Oluwatimi: 1 begin (129 snaps)
RG Anthony Bradford: 10 begins (661 snaps)
RT Abraham Lucas: 22 begins (1,251 snaps)
64 mixed skilled begins and fewer than 4,000 offensive snaps logged. The majority of the expertise is on the two sort out spots, with Lucas a reputable query mark given how a lot time he missed final yr because of harm. If we acknowledge that Bradford’s begins have been a product of Phil Haynes’ accidents, you’re taking a look at (probably) three first-year starters on the inside.
Laken Tomlinson is the wild card because the veteran and 2021 Professional Bowl choice. He’s sturdy and has been a beginning left guard for 9 seasons. His two seasons with the New York Jets went very poorly, which has rightfully sparked some trepidation over whether or not or not the Seahawks ought to begin the 32-year-old at LG over a rookie with larger upside.
We’ve seen the Seahawks attempt to plug in veterans on low-cost offers in lieu of draft picks (and even drafting on the place) in latest seasons. They traded for Gabe Jackson, signed and began Mike Iupati, emergency signed and began Jason Peters final yr, and infamously signed and began Luke Joeckel. Jahri Evans was additionally a Seahawk for a minute and was nonetheless actually good, however naturally he was reduce and went again to the New Orleans Saints.
It’s potential that this pattern of beginning vets continues with Tomlinson, or we see the Seahawks really decide to a youth motion that quantities to “sink or swim.” Having expertise whereas additionally being on the opposite aspect of 30 can be code for “washed up.”
As followers, we are inclined to routinely assume or no less than maintain the idea that draft picks will likely be good. It’s actually arduous for offensive linemen to be good proper out of the gate, even in case you have extremely regarded prospects or extremely regarded school coaches like Seahawks OL coach Scott Huff.
A 2020 article from PFF’s Timo Riske (H/T John P. Gilbert) outlined the educational curve for faculty prospects coming into the NFL. One part targeted on the offensive line, with a graph displaying that offensive linemen (no matter place) have a distinctly troublesome time performing properly within the front-half of their rookie contracts.
We proceed our evaluation with the trenches and begin with the offensive line. There are two notable observations right here:
1.) Offensive linemen battle throughout their rookie season far more than different positions and, possibly much more curiously, offensive linemen don’t attain their full potential earlier than Yr 3 and even Yr 4.
2.) Offensive tackles, specifically, appear to consistently develop all through their rookie contract, because the latest instance of D.J. Humphries illustrates. Humphries changed into a strong move protector in his fourth yr and earned himself an extension. Whereas one ought to nonetheless train warning when observing a sudden breakout for an offensive lineman in Yr 4, our findings yield an encouraging consequence and may enhance our confidence in such performances being sustainable.
If Lucas and Cross are wholesome, I don’t anticipate struggles on the sort out place. We could theoretically see them make third-year leaps. But when the Seahawks desire a practical offense in 2024, it’s probably going to be trial by fireplace for an especially inexperienced inside offensive line.
In fact, when you decrease your expectations for returning to the playoffs (and presumably anticipate Seattle being dangerous sufficient to choose within the top-10), you’ll care not one bit about win-loss file this season and stay with rising pains if it means invaluable growth for the younger gamers. What you shouldn’t count on is the Seahawks to have a high-level OL in 2024, and which means Ryan Grubb goes to need to do a hell of a job scheming round that.
