Seahawks Movie Evaluation: A take a look at the nice and unhealthy of recent QB Sam Howell

Geno Smith had the tough job of main the Seattle Seahawks ahead after the Russell Wilson period. There are few average opinions about him amongst followers, most of whom both love him or hate him. And that was mirrored within the reactions to his new three-year contract signed final offseason.

Amongst this group, there was a want amongst followers for the group to draft a brand new quarterback. That didn’t occur in any of the three drafts after the Wilson commerce. Nevertheless, the group swapped picks with the Washington Commanders and purchased QB Sam Howell.

The transfer was additionally not unanimous among the many 12’s; we’ll talk about some prospects on this article.

The Worth of the Commerce

The Seahawks obtain Sam Howell, a fourth-round decide (No. 102) and a sixth-round decide (No. 179). The Commanders obtain a third-round decide (No. 78) and a fifth-round decide (No. 152). In different phrases, though Seattle stored the identical variety of picks, they didn’t keep their worth. We dropped 24 spots from the third to the fourth spherical and 27 spots from the fifth to the sixth.

The drop within the second a part of the commerce is definitely fairly small, however dropping from the third to the fourth will trigger Seattle to lose a very good variety of essential items within the Draft.

There are a number of tables to find out the values ​​of the picks. So primarily based on them, we are able to undertaking who win or who misplaced. To quantify what sort of worth the Commanders received within the Sam Howell commerce, it will depend on which desk you utilize to see the distinction acquired by the Washington group:

Jimmy Johnson Chart: 96th decide (finish of spherical 3);

Soccer Perspective Chart: 148th decide (mid-Spherical 5);

In each charts, I don’t suppose it’s price it. Particularly in Johnson’s. As a lot because it’s argued that he’ll be an inexpensive backup with good upside, giving up a third-rounder with a group filled with holes to fill is sophisticated.

You may also examine it to the opposite QB trades which have occurred. Particularly, I’ll point out the one between Kenny Pickett and Justin Fields. I imagine that there are those that suppose that Howell is the most suitable choice among the many three and those that suppose he’s the worst. I perceive these opinions, however what I imagine is that there’s not an enormous distinction between these names. Subsequently, the worth ought to have been very shut.

Let’s take a look at the numbers:

Kenny Pickett -> Swap of third spherical for fourth (dropped 22 positions) plus two seventh rounders in 2025;

Justin Fields -> sixth spherical (which turns into a fourth if he performs greater than half of the snaps)

Keep in mind that each of the gamers within the comparability have the fifth-year possibility of their contracts. Relating to his contract, Howell has two years and simply $2.085 million (in whole) that Seattle owes him.

As for the “the Seahawks liked him within the draft” fallacy, let’s get actual. Howell was chosen with the primary decide of the fifth spherical (144). Seattle took Coby Bryant at 109 within the fourth (to make use of him in positions that he by no means performed earlier than), and after that the following decide was Tariq Woolen at 153 within the fifth. Earlier than that Seattle had the picks of Charles Cross, Boye Mafe, Ken Walker and Abe Lucas. That’s 5 picks earlier than Howell was off the board. So, it’s not a strong argument.

Howell numbers in 2023

He had a strong season up till Week 10: 17 TDs, 9 interceptions, 6 video games with 290 yards or extra thrown. Then issues went downhill, with 4 TDs and 12 extra INTs. Of the 17 video games, he solely did not have an interception in 4. That features video games towards the Payments (4) and Giants (3).

Howell led the NFL with 21 interceptions final yr, and one other huge drawback for him is that he generally holds the ball too lengthy, leading to 65 sacks. He threw the ball greater than any QB and that impacts this metric, however Washington’s OL was a minimum of strong, ending 14th in pass-blocking win price.

Howell in Tape

Howell is the form of QB, from a bodily standpoint, that any GM would need. Good athleticism, arm energy, and so forth. Nevertheless, it appears that evidently for each high quality he has, he brings with him a flaw (or, if you wish to take a look at it extra optimistically, for each flaw he has, we are able to see a high quality).

Bravery/Toughness

These are attributes that you simply gained’t be capable to see in charts and stats. Howell has the drive to take duty and carry the group, a attribute that I believe is crucial in a quarterback. Watch his final yr at North Carolina. After a incredible yr that led to a extremely hyped remaining yr, he had little or no assist from the remainder of the group and needed to put the Tar Heels on his shoulders at occasions.

This matches his posture within the pocket. He’s not afraid to “sacrifice” his physique to throw the ball on the final second or danger passes in tighter home windows that extra conservative QBs wouldn’t try.

Mobility/Pocket Presence

Jamal Adams has a transparent path to sack the QB. Howell manages to flee the sack, improvises out of the pocket and makes the transfer for an enormous cross.

Jarran Reed with a terrific bull rush is driving the OL into Howell’s face. Discover that Howell has the liberty to maneuver to the appropriate or left to flee strain. Nevertheless, when he doesn’t “swap on” to improvise, he holds the ball an excessive amount of and creates strain for himself.

Arm Power

Howell can rapidly establish the 49ers’ Cowl 1 and is aware of that the CB is 1-on-1 on the backside of the display, which provides him a bonus on his slot receiver’s fade route within the Smash idea. He suits the cross nicely within the empty house, away from the CB and the protection, making life simpler for the receiver.

At occasions it appears like we’re watching Josh Allen’s rookie season. His arm energy makes him careless at occasions. This overconfidence can price him dearly. Right here he sees that the protection is tight and believes he can beat them with simply his arm energy.

Choice Making

Howell reads the sphere rapidly and manages to anticipate his receiver deep down the sphere. Even with three defenders shut by he makes the appropriate determination and scores the gorgeous TD.

Eric Bieniemy’s scheme was extremely centered on passing and led Howell to steer the league in yards, however there are issues with this scheme. Right here, the 49ers name man protection and ship a blitz. The offense responds with 4 of precisely the identical routes, 10-yard hitch routes.

However, regardless of the decision not being very artistic, Howell doesn’t settle for the sack, nor does he throw the ball away. He sees the receiver marked and nonetheless tries the cross, working the danger of being intercepted.

And there might be moments while you marvel if he was a genius or simply loopy/careless to throw the ball in a sure state of affairs.

The Actual Concern…

He even led the league in passing yards, however at the price of additionally main the league in interceptions, with 21, and a 1:1 ratio together with his TDs.

On this hyperlink, we’ve a video compilation of all his interceptions. I recommend you watch it, at first, with out wanting on the tactical or technical half, however take a look at it situationally. Take a look at WHEN and never HOW the interceptions occurred. He even talked throughout OTAs about how he wants to enhance his decision-making/turnovers.

For individuals who like numbers:

Of the 21 interceptions, 19 had been his fault (91%);
Of the 21 interceptions, 4 grew to become decide sixes (20%);
Of the 21 interceptions, 3 had been on errors in studying linebackers/beneath defenders (14%);
Of the 21 interceptions, 11 occurred when the group was nonetheless “dwell” within the sport [up to 10 points difference] (53%);
Of the 21 interceptions, 13 (it will have been 15 however the Commanders missed 2 FGs) resulted in a rating for the opponent on the next drive (62%);

In different phrases, if you happen to’re on the lookout for somebody to have clutch moments, like Classic Wilson, Howell didn’t show to be that man.

Last Ideas

From a beginning quarterback perspective, there is no such thing as a debate: Geno would be the beginning QB until he will get harm or somebody punches him within the jaw (IK Enemkpali continues to be out of the league, proper?!).

Additionally, neglect about any risk of buying and selling Geno. His contract has been restructured and will have develop into extra enticing to different groups, however the truth that Seattle has not made an effort to seek out one other backup possibility reveals that the group will go along with the Smith/Howell duo for the common season. PJ Walker solely arrived close to the top of OTAs and except for UDFA Chevan Cordeiro, the group spent a very good period of time with simply two QBs, which is definitely fairly uncommon for this stage of the offseason.

To consider the worth of buying and selling for a backup, let’s take a look at the Draft. Selecting at No. 16, Seattle was out of the working for any of the three QBs that I believed to have an actual first-round grade (Caleb Williams, Drake Maye, Jayden Daniels) and it will be too early for the following group, which I personally thought could be second-round grades (Bo Nix, J.J. McCarthy and Michael Penix Jr).

After these six QBs went within the first spherical, the following one on the place was solely chosen at decide 150, within the fifth spherical. It was Spencer Rattler, a very good wager and a reputation that Seattle introduced in its 30-Go to within the pre-draft course of. I confess that I personally most popular to “danger” the fifth spherical on Rattler than on Howell’s two years and it will even price much less. There was additionally the choice of Michael Pratt, an underrated participant who ended up going within the seventh spherical.

So, Howell offers us a strong backup immediately who received a variety of enjoying time final season. I imagine a lot of his points could be addressed. The large query is whether or not he will get an opportunity earlier than his contract is up. In one of the best case state of affairs, Seattle cuts Geno subsequent yr (13.5 million in lifeless cash and frees up 25 million) and makes use of Howell as a bridge QB to the 2025 draft QB.