The Minnesota Vikings have the best win share of any non-division winner since 2000, in accordance with TruMedia. Of the groups to not win their division, 5 of them nonetheless received the Tremendous Bowl. If the Vikings need to be the sixth, Sam Darnold must win his first, second, third, and fourth playoff begins.
The Los Angeles Rams made a commerce for Matthew Stafford that resulted in them turning into Tremendous Bowl champions. Three years later, the Rams have one other shot at greatness as Stafford reaches the age of decline. However first, they have to defeat the Vikings for a second time this season.
Minnesota Vikings vs. Los Angeles Rams Betting Strains, Odds, Begin Time, and Extra
SpreadVikings -2.5
MoneylineVikings (-135); Rams (+114)
Over/Under47.5 whole factors
Recreation Time8:00 p.m ET
LocationState Farm Stadium (Arizona)
Vikings vs. Rams Preview and Prediction
The Vikings rank fifteenth in EPA (anticipated factors added), twelfth in success charge, second in explosive passing charge, and 18th in explosive dashing charge. Outdoors of the absurd variety of huge performs, the Vikings’ offense has been fairly common. On scripted performs, the Vikings rank sixth in EPA however defenses have adjusted properly to Darnold and the Vikings this season.
Regardless of a rating of twenty seventh in defensive EPA, the Rams have been vastly enhancing largely attributable to having such younger playmakers on their protection. 5 of 11 starters are of their first or second 12 months within the league. Invoice Barnwell provides to this evaluation by calculating the typical age of NFL groups weighted by the variety of snaps from every participant. This permits us to get a have a look at which groups are performing with veteran assist versus younger groups.
Remaining snap-weighted age knowledge for the 2024 common season
5 oldest groups: Vikings, Dolphins, Falcons, Browns, 49ers
5 youngest groups: Packers, Giants, Raiders, Cardinals, Chargers pic.twitter.com/5azJUwKbPT
— Invoice Barnwell (@billbarnwell) January 8, 2025
The Rams have a median age on protection of 26.3 years outdated, good for Twenty sixth-oldest (seventh-youngest). Since Week 13, the Rams’ protection ranks 14th in EPA, showcasing their clear enchancment.
Sadly, the explosive passing has nonetheless been a transparent weak point of this workforce. They rank twenty eighth in passes of 20 or extra yards allowed per recreation. However as aforementioned, Minnesota ranks second offensively on this stat — not solely this, however additionally they try them at a really excessive charge.
Darnold is tied for sixth in most passing makes an attempt of 20 or extra yards this season. On these passes, he ranks second in completion share (51.5%), first in yards (1,192), first in yards per try (17.5), tied for second in touchdowns (10), and tied for third in big-time throws (22).
One other facet of the Los Angeles protection that’s fairly alarming is the sphere place battle. Opposing offenses face the third-shortest distance. A part of this could possibly be that they rank fourth in variety of kickoffs that lead to a touchback (82.6%), which is much less advantageous with the brand new guidelines.
On the opposite facet of the ball, Los Angeles is ranked thirteenth in EPA and tenth in success charge. They don’t create explosive performs properly, rating seventeenth and twenty ninth in passing and dashing, respectively. This offense ranks thirteenth by way of commonplace deviation in EPA, which means they’re inconsistent. 4 of their video games this season have been bottom-Twenty fifth-percentile performances, whereas six video games are above an Eightieth-percentile efficiency.
The Rams might want to have success on early downs in opposition to Minnesota, given how their offense drops off on late downs. The Rams rank fifth in EPA on first and second down versus twenty second on third and fourth down. In the meantime, the Vikings rank fifth on third and fourth down defensively.
The Rams additionally battle with strain, rating twenty third in EPA when underneath strain. It’s vital to notice that Minnesota will certainly need to tone down their blitz charge, as Stafford and the Rams are ninth in EPA in opposition to the blitz. Though Minnesota leads the league in blitz charge, they’re fourth in strain generated with simply 4 cross rushers.
Situationally, Minnesota has an enormous edge in play-action, rating fourth in EPA whereas the Rams’ protection ranks thirty first in opposition to it. If the Vikings can run the ball effectively, this can add one other facet to their offense that may be troublesome for the Rams to maintain up with.
Of their first matchup, the Rams had been profitable on first and second down. Regardless of solely averaging 3.3 yards per rush, they went 20/27 for over 200 yards and two touchdowns. Surprisingly, the Rams went 5/7 for 81 yards, two touchdowns, and one interception on third and fourth down.
In addition they went 6/8 for 47 yards and a landing and that one interception underneath strain as properly. All of the issues Minnesota did to reap the benefits of the Rams’ weaknesses had been in some way not weaknesses on this recreation — that’s precisely why the Rams are so troublesome to foretell. At any given second, Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua will join with Stafford in a means that can not be stopped.
When this occurs, there are only a few offenses in soccer that may sustain. Take the sport in opposition to the Buffalo Payments as the right instance. Regardless of Josh Allen placing up a signature efficiency and actually keen his workforce to victory, it wasn’t sufficient.
Darnold has by no means began a playoff recreation earlier than. If defensive coordinator Chris Shula can discover methods to get Jared Verse and Kobie Turner in advantageous positions, Darnold might battle. Amongst 29 quarterbacks with over 100 passes underneath strain, Darnold ranks nineteenth in EPA, 18th in sack charge, twentieth in common depth of goal, sixteenth in completion share, and 14th in interceptions.
I discover the typical depth of goal (ADOT) probably the most indicative; because it exhibits that getting strain on Darnold considerably hastens his intrinsic timer and prevents him from hitting these explosive cross performs which can be a key a part of the offense.
I don’t assume the Rams are able to placing collectively pretty much as good of an offensive efficiency as final time. It took an outrageously environment friendly offensive efficiency on third downs for the Rams to tug off the upset. With that being mentioned, we are able to flip to the Minnesota offensive line to know why I’m not utterly bought.
Within the first matchup, Minnesota did a poor job dealing with the Rams’ cross rush. They allowed a strain on 44.8% of Darnold’s dropbacks — he went down thrice. This was earlier than the harm to Christian Darrisaw. With Darrisaw out, Cam Robinson has grow to be the brand new left sort out.
Amongst 189 offensive tackles with over 200 pass-blocking snaps, Robinson ranks a hundred and eightieth in strain charge per cross blocking snap at 8.7%.
Regardless of Brian O’Neill — the appropriate sort out — being an absolute stalwart, rating twenty third at 3.1%, Verse traces up on the left facet of the offensive line on simply over 58% of his snaps.
Given how shut I consider each groups to be by way of expertise, I’m going to counsel parlaying the 2 picks for added worth. Taking the Rams +2.5 at -110 and the Vikings -135 places you at +230.
My decide: Rams +2.5 (-110); Vikings (-135)
