It is shaping up to be a relatively wide open Mutua Madrid Open. Jannik Sinner is still on the sidelines (this is the last tournament he will miss during his three-month suspension) and Carlos Alcaraz may be dealing with a leg injury following last week’s effort in Barcelona.
Before main-draw competition begins on Wednesday, here are my picks for this Masters 1000 tournament–the second of three during the European clay-court swing.
Mutua Madrid Open
Where: Madrid, Spain Surface: Clay Top seed: Alexander ZverevDefending champion: Andrey Rublev
The top half of the Madrid Masters draw is particularly strong. Included in it are last week’s ATP 500 champions in Alexander Zverev (Munich) and Holger Rune(Barcelona) in addition to defending Madrid champion Andrey Rublev and 2024 finalist Felix Auger-Aliassime. Zverev could face Rublev in the quarterfinals, while Rune and Auger-Aliassime are on a collision course for the last 16. However, Zverev won’t be looking ahead to a potential meeting with last year’s Madrid winner. The German first could run into Alejandro Davidovich Fokina in round three and either Francisco Cerundolo or Arthur Fils in round four. Rublev’s title defense has the possibility of including a fourth-round showdown against either surprise Miami champ Jakub Mensik or recent Munich runner-up Ben Shelton.
On the other side, Alcaraz’s quarter is loaded. The one-time Madrid champion is joined by Alex de Minaur, Grigor Dimitrov, Stefanos Tsitsipas, Lorenzo Musetti, Denis Shapovalov, and Tomas Machac. Alcaraz vs. De Minaur is a potential showdown in the last eight, so this could be a good spot for the Aussie given that he is red hot right now and that Alcaraz may be less than 100 percent. Novak Djokovic’s section is less daunting. The 37-year-old Serb could meet Sebastian Baez in the third round, Frances Tiafoe in the fourth, and either Jack Draper, Matteo Berrettini, or Tommy Paul the quarterfinals.
First-round matchups to watch on Wednesday and Thursday include Alex Michelsen vs. Alexander Bublik, Tomas Martin Etcheverry vs. Hamad Medjedovic, Fabian Marozsan vs. Flavio Cobolli, Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs. Mariano Navone, and Lorenzo Sonego vs. Miomir Kecmanovic.
Quarterfinal picks: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina over Ben Shelton, Holger Rune over Taylor Fritz, Matteo Berrettini over Novak Djokovic, and Alex de Minaur over Jiri Lehecka
Semifinals: Rune over Davidovich Fokina and De Minaur over Berrettini
Final: De Minaur over Rune
Ricky contributes to 10sballs.com and also maintains his own tennis website, The Grandstand. You can follow him on Twitter at @Dimonator.
