On Tuesday we revisited my predictions for the Bucs’ 2023 cross rushers particular person sack totals. I feel the outcomes have been fairly near what really materialized.
What I’m most happy with is that I used to be fairly shut in predicting every participant’s stress price, which, over time, is essentially the most predictive measure of cross rush expertise.
Now that we now have put final 12 months’s predictions and outcomes to mattress it’s time to flip to this upcoming 12 months.
The premise for my predictions is off of three components. One, I attempt to estimate what number of cross rush snaps every participant will get subsequent season. Secondly, I attempt to predict what every participant’s stress price will likely be. By multiplying these two numbers collectively I derive a stress estimate.
Then, for many gamers, I’ll apply a league common pressure-to-sack conversion price. For edge rushers that is about 17-18%. For inside rushers it’s 12%.
My very own evaluation has proven stress charges are extra steady year-to-year, with a little bit of an age curve to them. Conversion charges aren’t predictive in any respect: see Nelson, Anthony circa 2022-2023.
Now that we now have a baseline for my methodology, let’s get to the predictions.
Bucs Edge Rushers
Yaya Diaby
Bucs OLB YaYa Diaby and Payments QB Josh Allen – Picture by: USA At this time
I’m in all probability going to disappoint plenty of Bucs followers, however I don’t foresee Diaby approaching his 2023 sack manufacturing in 2024. Final 12 months’s quantity, which was 7.5 formally (9, as measured by PFF) was due largely to an obscenely excessive pressure-to-sack conversion price of 35%. The probabilities of Diaby replicating which might be fairly low.
If he’s to succeed in that complete, or exceed it into double digits, it should begin with elevated enjoying time. That may be a possible end result as Diaby is firmly entrenched in a beginning function to start the season. Given his youth, the truth that the teaching employees is excessive on him, and his plus run protection, I may see Diaby attending to 385 cross rush snaps. I additionally predict he’ll enhance as a snap-to-snap cross rusher, bettering his stress price to round 9.75%.
Given these two components I’m predicting Diaby to amass 38 pressures, which might be a rise of 12 over his 2023 complete. At an 18% conversion price, I estimate he’ll publish seven sacks for the season.
Joe Tryon-Shoyinka
The polarizing cross rusher is getting into a contract 12 months with the Bucs. If given a full 12 months as a starter, there may be an outdoor likelihood JTS may earn himself fairly the payday. However whereas he’s at the moment penciled in because the starter reverse Diaby, the workforce goes to wish to see what they’ve in Chris Braswell after investing a second-round choose in him within the 2024 NFL Draft.
In Tryon-Shoyinka’s rookie season he performed third fiddle to Shaq Barrett and Jason Pierre-Paul. JPP missed 4 video games that 12 months as a result of damage and created a cross rush cut up of 388 to 344 with JTS. I feel that’s going to be near the place JTS finally ends up with Braswell this 12 months with Braswell getting the lion’s share of the cut up.
So far as Tryon-Shoyinka’s stress price, I feel he’ll publish a career-best in 2024 working off of the most effective inside rush he has had in his profession. I envision that to be round 12%. Over 340 cross rush snaps it could give him 41 pressures. And after underperforming the league common conversion price his first two years within the NFL, JTS outperformed the league final 12 months, changing 19% of his pressures into sacks. On the low finish of league common (17%) he would produce a career-high seven sacks for the season.
Chris Braswell
Bucs OLB Chris Braswell – Picture by: Cliff Welch/PR
The latest version to the Bucs outdoors linebacker room will get loads of probabilities to nab that beginning function from Tryon-Shoyinka. As I discussed above, I predict he’ll wind up with about 375 cross rush snaps. Braswell had a 17.5% stress price in faculty. That was the very same as his operating mate Will Anderson Jr. who had a exceptional rookie season for the Texans final 12 months.
I don’t suppose Braswell has the identical ceiling as Anderson, however I feel he can benefit from some scheme alternatives the Bucs will give him. I’m predicting he has an 11.5% stress price.
That might give Braswell an estimated 43 pressures and I feel he’ll really outperform the league common conversion price, profitable on some loops/twists to juice the conversion price a little bit, inflating his shut price to 22.5%. I’m predicting Braswell will attain 9.5 sacks (as measured by PFF who offers full credit score for half sacks).
Anthony Nelson
Nelson got here crashing right down to earth along with his sack complete in 2023. And that’s okay. He’s nonetheless a high-floor edge rusher who defends the run effectively. He was really extra constant as a cross rusher final 12 months, even when the splash performs weren’t as quite a few because the 12 months prior. With the addition of Braswell and the emergence of the following man on the record, I feel Nelson continues to see a decline in cross rush snaps. I wouldn’t be shocked if he solely registers about 105 as he’ll play totally on early downs.
At a 7.5% stress price Nelson will miss double digit pressures by two, ending with eight by my estimation. That’ll go away him with simply 1.5 sacks.
Markees Watts
Bucs OLB Markees Watts – Picture by: Cliff Welch/PR
There are solely so many cross rush snaps to go round. The final two seasons the Bucs had about 1,100 for his or her edge rushers to pool. In 2021 it was nearly 1,450 because the workforce ran extra three OLB snaps making an attempt to get JTS on the sphere as an inside rusher.
I may see that taking place a bit extra this season and as such I’ve 1,350 cross rush snaps for the sting room. That leaves 145 snaps for Watts. I’m assured with the added workload you received’t see the identical 22.2% stress price he posted on restricted snaps final 12 months.
However I do nonetheless see Watts getting used as a cross rush specialist the place he received’t have to fret about becoming the run as a lot. As such, I nonetheless suppose he can clock a 13.5% stress price and publish 20 pressures. However I additionally suppose he’ll battle to succeed in a league common conversion price. With a depressed shut price of 12.5% he would nonetheless solely get about 2.5 sacks.
Bucs Inside Rushers
Vita Vea
Bucs DTs Calijah Kancey and Vita Vea – Picture by: Cliff Welch/PR
Vita Vea posted his first sub-10% stress price season in 2023. This can be indicative of a fall-off in athleticism as he approaches his thirtieth birthday (he’s 29 this 12 months). It’s laborious to take care of freak athleticism at his weight.
Maybe seeing that future drop-off, the massive man has made a concerted effort to drop some kilos. Will that assist him enhance as a cross rusher? Possibly a little bit. I’m predicting a 2% enchancment in that metric. However that soar nonetheless doesn’t get him again above the ten% threshold, topping out at 9.75%.
However I’m shopping for Vea being on the sphere extra. In his complete profession he has solely surpassed 400 cross rush snaps twice. In 2019 he had a career-high 505 and in 2021 he hit 420. Along with his extra svelte physique I’m projecting him to be on the sphere for 425 cross rush snaps. This could give him 41 pressures. At a 12.5% conversion price he would finish the season with 5 sacks.
Calijah Kancey
I can’t understate how excessive I’m on a Calijah Kancey breakout season. And I’m not the one one.
.@Buccaneers @Ckancey8 the Cross Chop is coming to an NFL Stadium close to you. Take it to the BANK. #BaldysBreakdowns pic.twitter.com/lNNg4AtQsO
— Brian Baldinger (@BaldyNFL) June 26, 2024
Final 12 months Kancey put collectively a wonderful cross dashing efficiency to the tune of an 8.9% stress price. Search for that to maneuver as much as 11.5% this 12 months. And if the Bucs can maintain him on the sphere for 450 cross rush snaps – look out.
At these ranges he would produce 52 pressures. That might have ranked tied for twelfth within the NFL final 12 months amongst inside defensive linemen. It could additionally get Kancey proper round 6.5 sacks.
Logan Corridor
Bucs DT Logan Corridor – Picture by: USA At this time
Corridor has posted two straight seasons of sub-6% stress charges. His failure to develop something past an ineffective swim transfer has led to equally ineffective outcomes. I don’t see an enormous enchancment from the third-year sort out on a price foundation. I additionally don’t see his playtime bettering, as I’m hopeful the Bucs will make the most of a few of their greater edge rushers like Yaya Diaby, Anthony Nelson and Joe Tryon-Shoyinka inside on cross dashing downs extra typically.
I’m forecasting Corridor to provide a 6% stress price on 300 cross rush snaps for a complete of 18 pressures. He ought to see some optimistic conversion-rate regression to the imply taking him from zero sacks final 12 months to 2.5 sacks this 12 months.
Greg Gaines
Gaines has been introduced again for a second 12 months extra for his talents as a run-defending nostril sort out than as a cross rusher. Gone are the times of his 6-8% stress charges. He’s been firmly entrenched within the 3-4.5% vary over the previous two years. I consider that can proceed (4.25%) over about 265 cross rush snaps this 12 months. The result’s 11 pressures and 1.5 sacks.
William Gholston
Gholston is again for one more go-round. However he’s hardly a cross dashing drive at this level in his profession. Count on Gholston’s cross rush snap depend to additional cut back from 115 final 12 months to 75 this 12 months. His stress price will seemingly backside out at 4% for 3 pressures and thus produce no sacks.
Bucs Predicted Totals
Bucs HC Todd Bowles and DT Calijah Kancey – Picture by: Cliff Welch/PR
Including up the ten participant predictions and we get the next totals: 2,865 cross rush snaps, 275 pressures and 43 sacks. That compares favorably throughout the board to the workforce’s 2023 totals.
Wanting on the similar group (with Shaq Barrett and Cam Gill added in to account for the change to Braswell), these gamers posted 2,663 cross rush snaps, 225 pressures and 34 sacks final 12 months. My forecast sees the full group soar 1.1% in stress price making a extra formidable cross rush that Todd Bowles has been on the lookout for.
Moreover, you’ll be able to see a rise in sacks of 9 from the defensive entrance, though have in mind all of those totals are utilizing the PFF model of sacks slightly than the NFL’s manner of counting half sacks. For any participant the place I’ve a half sack projection, it’s my manner of claiming I envision that participant getting both of the entire numbers the full splits.
