A brand new Pewter Report Roundtable debuts each Tuesday on PewterReport.com. Every week, the Pewter Reporters sort out one other powerful query. This week’s immediate: What’s your revised prediction for the Bucs’ 2024 season?
Scott Reynolds: Eight Or 9 Wins Appear Like The Most The Bucs Can Get Now
Bucs HC Todd Bowles – Photograph by: Cliff Welch/PR
In my preseason predictions version of SR’s Fab 5 again in early September, I had the Bucs with a 6-2 file heading into Kansas Metropolis to play the Chiefs. I had Tampa Bay 4-2 coming into dwelling video games towards Baltimore and Atlanta – each of which I anticipated the Bucs to win. As an alternative, the staff misplaced these video games and is 4-4 as a substitute of the 6-2 file that I predicted. The dangerous information is that I additionally predicted losses to the Chiefs on the street in Week 9 and the 49ers at dwelling in Week 10. I nonetheless really feel like these will happen. So as a substitute of being 6-4 heading into the bye week, I consider Tampa Bay will likely be 4-6.
So will that trigger me to rethink my 10-7 season prediction for Tampa Bay? You guess. I initially had the Bucs going 4-3 down the stretch within the remaining seven video games. The wins would come towards the Giants, Raiders and Panthers twice, whereas the losses come by the hands of the Chargers, Cowboys and Saints, who for some motive, play the Bucs a lot better in Tampa than they do in New Orleans.
To ensure that Tampa Bay to hit my authentic 10-win mark, a 4-6 squad must end 6-1 after the bye week. That will be like an identical state of affairs as final 12 months when the staff bottomed out at 4-7 earlier than a Herculean 5-1 end received the Bucs to 9 wins and a 3rd straight NFC South title.
I don’t assume Tampa Bay will likely be as lucky this season. Not like a 12 months in the past, this Bucs staff has battled accidents all season, beginning in Week 1, and the protection was enjoying a lot better final season. Now, every week sees a special Bucs starter (or two) out with a critical harm, and Todd Bowles’ horrendous protection has been the wrongdoer in many of the staff’s losses this 12 months. I can see the Bucs beating the Giants, Raiders, sweeping the Panthers and probably beating the Saints at dwelling if New Orleans continues to be in disarray.
However eight or 9 wins looks like the restrict for this 12 months’s Bucs staff. My head says eight wins, however put me down optimistically at 9-8 I assume. And that begs two questions – does Tampa Bay win sufficient to qualify for one of many NFC Wild Card spots, and do the Bucs hold Todd Bowles on as head coach in 2025? I’m unsure about both.
Matt Matera: Bucs Can Go 9-8, However Would possibly Not Make The Postseason
The Bucs at the least confirmed on the offensive aspect that they will nonetheless produce – even with out having Chris Godwin for the remainder of the season and Mike Evans till after the bye week. Scoring 24 factors, (the protection additionally had a security) led by a great operating recreation and the emergence of tight finish Cade Otton proved that they will keep inside most video games. The largest query on offense is at broad receiver with who can step up. Possibly Rakim Jarrett is that reply till Evans is again.
Bucs FS Antoine Winfield Jr. – Photograph by: USA At present
What’s undoubtedly most regarding for Tampa Bay is the staff’s lack of means to cease anyone. Initially of the 12 months one would assume that the Bucs may grasp with the Chiefs, who they play on Monday night time at Arrowhead. However who’re we kidding? The fact is hardly any changes have been made, and that is the worst the protection has appeared below Todd Bowles.
If Kirk Cousins can torch the Bucs, Patrick Mahomes definitely will be capable of. Tampa Bay had the reinforcements are available with Calijah Kancey and Antoine Winfield Jr. returning, as neither performed towards the Falcons the primary time. Edge rusher Yaya Diaby hasn’t lived as much as the hype all of us gave him. No person is strolling by means of that door to the save the Bucs. They’ve to avoid wasting themselves.
My preliminary file prediction was 10-7 for Tampa Bay. I’m transferring that barely right down to 9-8 because the Bucs at present stand at 4-4. Pretty much as good as I really feel about their offense, that’s how dangerous I really feel about their protection. They should discover a approach to cut up between the Chiefs and 49ers earlier than the bye. The schedule strains up after that the place there are very winnable video games towards the Giants, Panthers and Raiders. The following two after that towards the Chargers and Cowboys are toss ups.
After one other winnable recreation going through the Panthers, who is aware of how the Saints will have a look at in Week 18? It’d be ridiculous to say the Bucs can win out after the bye, but it surely gained’t be as disastrous as some anticipate.
Bailey Adams: We Might Be In For A Repeat Of 2023
Bucs HC Todd Bowles – Photograph by: Cliff Welch/PR
I went with a 10-7 file prediction earlier than this season, however by means of eight video games, 4-4 isn’t the place I anticipated the Bucs to be. I believed they’d at the least cut up their two video games with the Falcons, plus I believed they’d get a house win over the Broncos in Week 3. Now, I would’ve predicted a loss to the Eagles in Week 4, so perhaps these Broncos and Eagles outcomes cancel out.
Regardless, this staff might be a recreation not on time for my 10-7 prediction. And with the best way this protection is enjoying, I’m considering there’s nearly no shot they discover a approach to get again on that schedule and nonetheless attain 10 wins.
So, so far as a revised prediction, I’ll roll with 9-8. I don’t assume the Bucs win once more till after the bye, that means it’ll be a four-game shedding streak heading into that Week 11 break. Todd Bowles and Co. could have gone from 4-2 to 4-6, however the excellent news is that the schedule lightens up down the stretch. The truth is, that schedule is gentle sufficient the place I may see the most effective model of this Bucs staff happening a 6-1 run and nonetheless ending 10-7.
However the issue is, the most effective model of this Bucs staff has Chris Godwin, in addition to a functioning protection.
I like Tampa Bay to win popping out of the bye to get to 5-6 and keep away from the 4-7 begin it had in 2023. However I additionally assume there’s a loss or two in that stretch that can occur, even when it shouldn’t. A win over the Giants, a sweep of the Panthers and a accomplished sweep of the Saints feels life like. And whereas there’s loads of motive to consider they may beat the Raiders, Chargers and Cowboys, I don’t belief this staff like I did a number of weeks in the past. I feel they lose two video games someplace in there, which leaves me on the identical 9-8 file from a 12 months in the past. This time round, that will not be sufficient.
Josh Queipo: 10-7 Stays A Seemingly Final result For Tampa Bay
Bucs HC Todd Bowles – Photograph by: USA At present
It’s comprehensible after two losses to the Falcons and a drubbing by the hands of the Ravens within the final 4 weeks for a lot of to regulate their preseason predictions downward. I get it. The protection has been a catastrophe. However the offense has been higher than anticipated. Even after the lack of Mike Evans for an prolonged time period and Chris Godwin for the season the Bucs can nonetheless rating factors.
And for that motive, a great offense in an offense-centric league, mixed with a much less daunting schedule down the stretch that I nonetheless consider the Bucs will finish the season 10-7. I had the staff at 4-4 at this juncture. They’re 4-4. Was it precisely as I had deliberate? No. Issues not often are. However the mixture outcome remains to be the identical.
Week 9 will mark the primary time since Week 1 that the Bucs could have all 4 of their high safeties out there, together with Tykee Smith, who’s a quasi-safety/nickelback. And I hope and anticipate Todd Bowles will discover methods to get all 4 on the sector collectively. For the entire faults of Bowles and his protection this 12 months, and there are numerous, I don’t assume it would proceed to be this dangerous for the remainder of the season.
The groups the Bucs have confronted thus far have a mixed profitable proportion of .629 and a mean EPA/play of +0.04. That composite could be tied for the eighth-best offense within the NFL. After the Bucs’ bye week, the mixed profitable proportion of their opponents will likely be .277 with a mean EPA/play of -0.17. That composite could be the seventh-worst offense within the NFL proper between the Cleveland Browns and the New York Giants. Higher days are forward for the Bucs. The protection will shift in the direction of the imply whereas the offense will proceed to be good, if not nice. And the Bucs will likely be 10-7.
Playoffs, although? In a tricky NFC I’m not so positive 10-7 does the trick.
Adam Slivon: I Can’t See The Bucs Successful 10 Video games Anymore
Bucs QB Baker Mayfield and OC Liam Coen – Photograph by: Cliff Welch/PR
I picked the Bucs to win 10 video games this season again in early September. After going 8-9 in 2022 and 9-8 in 2023, a continued enchancment in getting double-digit wins and profitable the NFC South for a fourth straight 12 months appeared life like. Properly, I don’t see that being the case any longer. Though Liam Coen has are available and directed an elite offense with Baker Mayfield below heart, Todd Bowles’ protection has been an absolute letdown.
That signifies that though offensively there was a drastic enchancment averaging 29.4 factors a recreation, permitting 26.6 factors per recreation won’t lower it. That latter quantity will get even worse wanting on the 4 video games the staff performed in October (32.3 factors per recreation).
So, the place does that depart my rest-of-season prediction? I don’t foresee Tampa Bay profitable both of the following two video games towards the Chiefs and 49ers, dropping them to 4-6. Happily, the group has a better schedule after the bye week. The Bucs ought to be capable of defeat the Giants and Panthers on the street, getting them again to .500 at 6-6. With the Raiders additionally underwhelming this 12 months, I predict they may get again over .500 and again within the playoff hunt.
Video games towards the Chargers and Cowboys will likely be a giant check to see what the staff is manufactured from. They’re winnable video games, but it surely’s exhausting to see them popping out with wins primarily based on what now we have seen as of late.
I now have them shedding each and falling to 7-8 earlier than ending season sweeps of the Panthers and Saints at dwelling to match final 12 months’s 9-8 file. Though that was sufficient to win the division in 2023, it doesn’t appear to be it would lower it in 2024. Regardless of its monitor file and star energy, the protection has no solutions for opposing offenses. One would have thought that an offense averaging practically 30 factors a recreation would have a revised prediction extra alongside the strains of 12-5 or 11-6, however that’s simply how a lot the protection has under-performed and can probably proceed to carry the staff again.
