As the Cardinals look to embrace a youth movement in John Mozeliak’s final year at the helm of the club, their inability to trade Nolan Arenado this winter has caused some complications. With Arenado ticketed for everyday playing time at third base, St. Louis now has five players for three spots in the lineup: second base, left field, and center field. While none of those five players can play all three of those positions, the versatility of Brendan Donovan to play either second base or left field connects the decisions made in the outfield to those at the keystone.
Donovan and Lars Nootbaar are both more or less guaranteed everyday playing time with the Cardinals, and one of them figures to be the club’s starting left fielder. Should Donovan start in left field, it would push Nootbaar to center, and that would open up second base for Nolan Gorman, who would have taken over for Arenado if the veteran were traded. Meanwhile, starting Nootbaar in left would push Donovan back onto the infield, and in doing so would open up center field for one of Michael Siani or Victor Scott II.
Scott and Siani are very similar players. Siani is a little over a year older than Scott, headed into his age-25 season while Scott has only just turned 24, and the pair combined for nearly 85% of the club’s innings in center field last year. Both are left-handed hitters who have struggled to hit in the majors so far, but are very well-regarded for their speed and defense nonetheless.
Of the two, Siani has the edge in terms of big league experience. After brief stints in the majors with the Reds and Cardinals in 2022 and ’23, Siani enjoyed his first extended taste of big league action last year when he appeared in 124 games for St. Louis and stepped up to the plate 334 times. He hit a paltry .228/.285/.285 in that time, good for a 64 wRC+ that was 36% worse than the league average hitter and the eighth-lowest slash line among hitters with at least 300 plate appearances. With that being said, Siani went an excellent 20-for-23 on the basepaths while posting +16 Outs Above Average, a 99th percentile figure that placed him behind only Nationals defensive standout Jacob Young among outfielders.
Unfortunately, there’s little in Siani’s profile that suggests a significantly higher offensive ceiling than he demonstrated in 2024. His actual batting average and slugging percentage both outstripped his expected numbers in those categories by more than 20 points last year, and his .322 BABIP, while not necessarily unsustainable due to his excellent speed, is already at the higher end of the expected range for a regular player. That limited offensive ceiling could open the door for Scott, a consensus top-100 prospect entering last season who has previously shown flashes of offensive potential in the minor leagues. Scott’s .179/.219/.283 (40 wRC+) slash line in 53 games for the Cardinals last year was actually worse than that of Siani, though his peripheral and expected numbers suggest the pair’s underlying performance was roughly the same.
Most notably, Scott flashed more power potential than Siani with a 5.7% barrel rate during his time in the majors last year that more than doubled Siani’s 2.3% figure. Scott also had 35 hard-hit batted balls to Siani’s 43 despite being afforded less than half of the playing time. All of that, as well as Scott’s excellent .323/.373/.450 slash line at the Double-A level in 2023, suggests that Scott has a higher offensive ceiling than Siani and could be a more impactful all-around player if given the opportunity. Scott is also a potential game changer on the basepaths, having stolen an unbelievable 94 bases between High-A and Double-A in 2023 and having followed that up with 35 steals between Triple-A and the majors last year.
Scott grades out extremely well in center field on scouting reports and posted solid (+3 OAA) numbers in defensive metrics with relatively minimal playing time last year, but he would need improve those numbers substantially to offer the sort of league-leading defense Siani has shown himself to be capable of. What’s more, Scott’s bat took a concerning step backwards even at Triple-A last year, when he slashed just .210/.294/.303 in 82 games. That lackluster showing could suggest that Scott simply isn’t ready for another jump to the major leagues, particularly given that the gap between MLB and Triple-A is even bigger than that between the Triple- and Double-A levels.
Of course, another viable option would be simply placing Nootbaar in center field. An above-average big league hitter in each of his four MLB seasons so far, Nootbaar is obviously the most talented hitter of the bunch but will be in the lineup in some capacity regardless of whether he’s playing center field or not. Playing Nootbaar in center, then, would actually open up playing time for Gorman. The club’s first-rounder back in 2018, Gorman was a league average bat during his rookie season in 2022 before taking a big step forward the following year, slashing .236/.328/.478 with 27 homers and a 118 wRC+ in 119 games that year. Unfortunately, things fell apart for Gorman last year as he struck out at a worrisome 37.9% clip and watched his slash line plummet to a lackluster .203/.271/.400 (87 wRC+).
Even last year’s subpar offensive output is likely better than what can be expected from either Siani or Scott this year, but to get Gorman’s bat into the lineup the Cards would have to sacrifice on defense. Nootbaar has logged 109 games in center field over the course of his career, with a rather pedestrian +1 OAA during that relatively sporadic playing time. While it’s possible that Nootbaar’s numbers could tick up with more regular playing time at the position, it’s clear he lacks the impactful defense ability of Siani or Scott. The club’s baserunning would suffer if Gorman replaced Siani or Scott in the lineup as well, as Gorman has never swiped more than seven bags in a season and has been a net negative on the basepaths throughout his career according to FanGraphs’ BsR metric.
How should the Cardinals handle their center field conundrum? Should they stick with Siani’s elite glove despite his lackluster offense? Pass the baton to Scott despite questions about his offensive ceiling thanks to his elite speed and baserunning abilities? Or should they slide Nootbaar over to center despite pedestrian defense in order to maximize their lineup’s potential by making room for Gorman? Have your say in the poll below:
