Phinsider Question Of The Day: To Trade Down or Not To Trade Down

Our Miami Dolphins once again underperformed last season based on the fan base’s expectations. The cause is likely the same as it has always been: the lack of quality talent at specific roster spots and/or the lack of quality talent among the depth players. The team’s season was all but completely derailed when starting quarterback Tua Tagovailoa went down yet again to injury. With the total lack of quality at the backup quarterback position, the team could not dig themselves out of the hole they had dug once Tua returned from IR. That lack of depth also applies to other positions on the team on both sides of the ball, with both starters and depth pieces.

So, what’s the solution to a roster’s lack of talent? It’s clear that it involves acquiring better talent, and there are three ways to do this in the NFL: sign free agents, trade for players, or draft players. The first two options are fine, except that the team suffers from salary cap issues that prevent them from engaging with top-notch players during free agency and/or trading for top talent/high-dollar players from another team. Occasionally, a player may not fit well on another roster, allowing for a beneficial value trade, but these deals tend to be more of an exception than the norm. Then there’s the third and most practical method…

The most logical method of building any roster seems to be via the draft, then using free agency and trades to top off your roster when your roster is ready to compete for a championship. The Dolphins seemed to embrace this concept but maybe pulled the trigger a couple/a few years too early, falsely believing that the roster was “there,” thus trading away still much-needed draft capital. That brings us to this year’s NFL draft. Miami will enter the draft, barring any trades to give away or acquire more picks before the draft, with 10 picks. Their top pick comes at #13 in the first round. There is also, when a lot of new/fresh/young talent is needed on a roster, the idea of trading down to acquire more picks.

A strong argument exists for staying at 13 versus trading down to acquire more picks. In most drafts, a player’s talent level at 13 is likely to be higher than what you can obtain by trading down a few to several picks. There are exceptions, as better talent sometimes slides for various reasons, including conduct issues, rumors, injury concerns, or because teams ahead of you are picking based on need rather than the overall quality of the player. Our Miami Dolphins have benefited significantly from these kinds of slides in the past, notably with QB Dan Marino and, more recently, with OT Laremy Tunsil. The argument for trading down is twofold in Miami’s case. They need more talent at multiple positions and better depth on the roster, and since the draft can often be a hit or miss, it additionally improves the team’s chances of having more players who succeed.

So, what would it be worth if the team traded down? Well, there are more draft pick value charts out there than ever. The chart began with former Miami Hurricanes, Dallas Cowboys, and Miami Dolphins head coach Jimmy Johnson. While most believe that his chart is outdated, the truth is that any pick is only worth what some other team is willing to give up, which is generally driven by how desperate they are to move up to take a particular player. Over the Cap has a decent chart HERE that you can check out to gauge the overall value of each pick. Searching the internet will also give you a variety of “proposed trades” for other teams to move up to 13 in this year’s draft.

So tonight’s Phinsider question of the day is: Would you like to see the Dolphins trade out their 13th overall pick to add more picks, and what would you hope to receive in return? Would you also possibly be in favor of trading down more than one time in more than one round in an attempt to add as many picks as possible (ala the New England Patriots of old), or do you believe that in most rounds, it would serve the team better to stay pat in most or all rounds and pick the best possible player available?

Please give us your answers and thoughts in the comments section below-