I believe a whole lot of us overestimate the importance of geography when predicting the place free brokers will signal. In Max Kepler’s case, nevertheless, all of us may need underestimated the function geography would play in his determination. Maybe it was inevitable that the best German-born participant in MLB historical past would head to the state with the best German inhabitants within the nation. Lo and behold, on December 19, the all-time chief in runs, dwelling runs, RBI, and WAR amongst Deutschland natives agreed to a one-year, $10 million contract with the Philadelphia Phillies.
But, except for serving to the Phillies pander to their followers in Germantown, it’s somewhat troublesome to see how Kepler suits this staff. Coming into the offseason, many anticipated Philadelphia would pursue a right-handed batter to play left discipline who might break up enjoying time with Brandon Marsh. As a substitute, they signed Kepler, who bats lefty and hasn’t performed left discipline since his days at Double-A in 2015. What’s extra, president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski has made it clear the Phillies plan to make use of Kepler as an on a regular basis participant, although accidents have saved him from enjoying greater than 130 video games in a full season since 2019.
Kepler’s restricted expertise in left discipline is the least regarding side of all this. Whether or not you take a look at OAA, FRV, DRS, or Baseball Prospectus’s DRP, Kepler has by no means been a below-average outfield defender in any season of his profession. His sturdy monitor document for granted fielder, and his previous expertise in heart, ought to assist him modify to left. Moreover, Kepler would possibly profit from enjoying a place the place throwing isn’t fairly as essential. Though his arm energy persistently ranks above the league common, he has been price -3 throwing runs in his profession, based on Baseball Savant.
Even when it gained’t be a significant adjustment, it’s not nothing for the Phillies to ask Kepler to re-learn a place after nearly 10 years away. It makes me consider the film line I quote extra typically than another. In Moneyball, when Billy Beane tries to persuade catcher Scott Hatteberg that he can play first base, Beane asks Ron Washington to inform Hatteberg that’s it not that arduous. “It’s extremely arduous,” Washington replies.
Transferring from proper to left discipline is doable for {most professional} baseball gamers. It’s so doable that a whole lot of them make it look easy. However after all, it’s not. Kepler must modify to the methods the ball comes off the bat, the methods it bounces off the wall, and the methods he’ll have to show to make all his essential throws. He’ll even have to try this whereas making an attempt to not re-aggravate the knee and hip points which have bothered him the final two years. Dombrowski says Kepler thinks it is going to be “a simple adjustment.” Maybe he’s proper. Maybe his pure abilities will counterbalance his lack of expertise. Nonetheless, it’s one small purpose why Kepler isn’t an ideal match for this roster.
Finally, Kepler will in all probability deal with left discipline simply positive. The larger query is that if he’ll have the ability to deal with left-handed pitching. His profession splits are so poor as to make you scratch your head and surprise how the Twins might have presumably watched him play for a decade and by no means platooned him. Greater than 1 / 4 (25.4%) of his profession plate appearances have come towards southpaws; since Kepler’s debut season in 2015, the common lefty batter has taken solely 18.5% of his hacks with out the platoon benefit. This could be comprehensible if Kepler have been higher than common towards lefties, besides, after all, he’s not. When dealing with righties, Kepler has a profession 111 wRC+. Towards southpaws, that quantity falls to 78. Over the previous 10 years, he’s one in every of 100 gamers to take no less than 1,000 plate appearances towards left-handed pitchers. He ranks among the many backside three in all three triple-slash classes. His wRC+ ranks second to final – lower than half a share level higher than former Phillie Freddy Galvis.
That’s not superb for the Phillies, who have already got two key gamers they don’t belief towards left-handed pitching: Marsh and Bryson Stott. Neither was efficient towards lefties in 2024, and there isn’t a lot purpose to hope for enchancment; ZiPS tasks every of them for a .675 OPS towards southpaws in 2025. Furthermore, Philadelphia’s two finest hitters, Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber, are additionally lefty bats. You’d suppose this staff can be searching for a right-handed hitter to stability issues out. As a substitute, they quintupled down with Kepler.
Having stated that, I concede there is likely to be a technique behind Dombrowski’s insanity. Regardless of a lineup that skewed left-handed, the Phillies ranked third within the majors with a 118 wRC+ towards left-handed pitchers in 2024. In distinction, their 104 wRC+ towards right-handed pitchers ranked thirteenth. Anticipated wOBA paints an analogous image; the Phillies had the third-best offense towards lefties and solely the Twelfth-best lineup towards righties. That’s largely as a result of all 4 of Philadelphia’s most essential righty batters – Trea Turner, Alec Bohm, Nick Castellanos, and J.T. Realmuto – had noticeable platoon splits in 2024. With that in thoughts, including a bat like Kepler makes much more sense. It’s nonetheless truthful to fret that this lineup is just too lopsided. A dominant left-hander might are available in and shut them down. But, over the course of an extended season, Kepler would possibly really convey extra stability, not much less, to the Phillies offense.
It’s additionally price mentioning that Kepler has saved his head above water towards lefties over the previous few years. He has a 102 wRC+ throughout 298 plate appearances towards same-handed pitchers from 2022-24. His .310 xwOBA in that point is true in keeping with his .312 wOBA. In fact, 298 PA usually are not a whole lot of knowledge to work with. It’s such a small pattern that in case you return another yr and take a look at his numbers towards lefties from 2021-24, his wRC+ drops to 85. Thus, we’re confronted with the age-old query that continues to flummox baseball prognosticators: How closely ought to we weigh newer efficiency in a smaller pattern measurement in comparison with much less latest efficiency in a bigger pattern measurement? Shade me skeptical that Kepler has made his platoon woes disappear. The Phillies, nevertheless, appear to suppose he can maintain his personal irrespective of who’s on the mound.
To that time, the Phillies additionally appear to suppose that Kepler will be extra productive total in 2025 than he was final yr. Chatting with the media after signing Kepler, Dombrowski emphasised that the veteran outfielder was coming off a down yr. But, it’s debatable how true that actually is. Kepler’s 94 wRC+ in 2024 was a step down from his profession 102 wRC+ and a giant step down from his 123 wRC+ in 2023. Nevertheless, his 97 wRC+ in 2021 and 94 wRC+ in 2022 counsel that his true expertise stage at this level in his profession is nearer to what we noticed in his mediocre 2024 season than in his glorious 2023 marketing campaign. Kepler’s defensive numbers have been additionally down in 2024, however that’s a pattern that started the yr earlier than. You may name that two defensive down years in a row, or you may admit that it’s in all probability an age-related decline.
Steamer envisions a slight uptick in Kepler’s offensive efficiency in 2025, projecting a 101 wRC+. Apparently, Steamer foresees higher total numbers for Kepler regardless of a big lower in his BABIP. The system appears to acknowledge that his stroll price and energy numbers have been unusually low in 2024 and expects some optimistic regression in each areas. Sadly, Steamer additionally believes within the pattern of his declining defensive skills. Thus, Kepler’s 1.1 WAR projection, utilizing the enjoying time estimates from our Depth Charts, represents a step again from his manufacturing this previous yr. He completed with 1.0 WAR in 2024, however that was in 105 fewer plate appearances than our Depth Charts have him taking in 2025. A one-win function participant continues to be worthwhile, and including such a participant on a one-year, $10 million contract is a wonderfully cheap funding. Nonetheless, the purpose stands that Kepler simply isn’t a terrific match for the on a regular basis function the Phillies are asking him to play.
Lastly, there’s the query of whether or not or not Kepler’s physique may even deal with enjoying daily. He has frolicked on the injured record in every of the previous 5 seasons. He hasn’t certified for the batting title since 2019. Even in his youthful years, when he had higher luck avoiding the IL, he handled no less than one damage subject or one other every year. The “accidents” part on his Baseball Prospectus participant web page has no less than one entry for each season relationship again to 2014.
In 2024, Kepler missed time early within the yr with a proper knee contusion earlier than touchdown on the IL once more in September with patellar tendinitis in his left knee. He has beforehand handled patellar tendinitis in his proper knee, too. On high of that, his hip started to hassle him whereas he was making an attempt to return from the left knee damage, and that’s what finally prevented him from coming again earlier than the season was up. As if that weren’t sufficient, Kepler was additionally enjoying by means of a core damage that required offseason surgical procedure. The Phillies appear to suppose he’ll be again at 100% by the spring, however his well being is at all times going to be a priority.
For a Phillies staff that would use extra stability within the outfield, Kepler’s damage historical past is but one more reason to query this transfer. Phillies outfielders ranked 18th in wRC+ and nineteenth in WAR this previous season. Marsh was an above-average participant towards right-handed pitching however a non-factor towards lefties. Johan Rojas was an elite defender and baserunner, however his 68 wRC+ ranked among the many backside 5 within the sport (min. 350 PA). Castellanos was the one a type of three who really took the sphere daily, however the numbers counsel he’s the final one who ought to have been enjoying that always. He completed the yr dangerously near substitute stage (0.4 WAR); he merely wasn’t productive sufficient on the plate (105 wRC+) for a participant who supplied nothing in another side of the sport. Kepler is an efficient participant, however he isn’t reply to any of the questions raised by Marsh, Rojas, and Castellanos. His prolonged damage historical past solely brings one other unknown variable into the equation.
Kepler signed with the Twins as a 16-year-old worldwide free agent. After 16 seasons with the group – nearly half of his life – he departs the one MLB staff he’s ever recognized. He’s one in every of 133 gamers who’ve performed in every of the previous 10 seasons. He’s one in every of solely 10 who performed all 10 seasons for a similar staff. Throughout these 10 seasons, he was a member of three AL Central-winning golf equipment and 4 playoff runs. He performed greater than 1,000 video games. Over the previous 30 years, solely 4 gamers have suited up for the Twins extra typically: Joe Mauer, Torii Hunter, Justin Morneau, and Michael Cuddyer. All 4 are members of the Twins Corridor of Fame. Kepler by no means discovered himself within the highlight as a lot as any of these names. He was by no means one of the best participant on the staff. He was by no means an MVP, an All-Star, a Silver Slugger, a Gold Glover, or a batting champion. But, after so a few years, he leaves behind his personal little legacy in Minnesota.
Now, Kepler heads to Philadelphia. He’s not the proper match for his new staff, however the Phillies will hope his total expertise outweighs his awkward match. Even in 2024, the worst season of his profession, Kepler was a win above substitute stage. If he will be that sort of contributor for the Phillies, the sort that Whit Merrifield and Austin Hays couldn’t be, perhaps the whole lot else will fall into place.
