With 5 hits in a three-game span in opposition to the Diamondbacks and Mets, Paul Goldschmidt lastly obtained off the interstate — to make use of former All-Star-turned-broadcaster Ken Singleton’s memorable time period for hitters with a batting common beneath .200 — however as the top of April approaches, the 36-year-old first baseman has nonetheless produced at a sub-replacement stage up to now. It’s early, however he’s obtained some firm in that division amongst former All-Stars, in addition to some high-profile free brokers each previous and future.
Goldschmidt gained the Nationwide League MVP award in 2022, hitting a strong .317/.404/.578 with 35 homers; he led the league in each slugging proportion and wRC+ (176) whereas totaling 6.9 WAR. His worth slipped to about half of that final season (3.4 WAR) as he batted .268/.363/.447 (122 wRC+) with 25 homers — respectable by most requirements, however the lowest slugging proportion of his 13-year profession to that time. Proper now, each he and the Cardinals would gladly accept that batting line, as he’s hitting simply .208/.304/.287 with two homers, a 74 wRC+, and -0.3 WAR.
Goldschmidt is hardly the Cardinals’ solely hitter who’s struggling. Final week, the staff optioned Jordan Walker, who was carrying a .155/.239/.259 (44 wRC+) line, again to Triple-A Memphis, however that hasn’t precisely cleared up the issue. Nolan Gorman (77 wRC+) and Lars Nootbaar (81 wRC+) have been horrible as nicely, and their middle fielders, Michael Siani and the since-demoted Victor Scott II, have mixed to “hit” .095/.170/.131 (-7 wRC+) en path to a internet -1.0 WAR. Small marvel the staff is second-to-last within the NL in scoring at 3.57 runs per sport. However this dive isn’t a lot concerning the Cardinals as it’s about Goldschmidt, whose offensive profile appears as if it has aged 10 years up to now two. After going 3-for-4 with a house run off the Dodgers’ Tyler Glasnow on Opening Day, he went 92 plate appearances (of which simply 12 had been hits) earlier than gathering his second extra-base hit. He’s as much as 4 now, having doubled each on Wednesday and Saturday.
Nearly all over the place you’d usually search for indicators that issues will not be that unhealthy for Goldschmidt, they transform fairly unhealthy. His swinging strike fee has spiked from 10.8% to 13.3%, his in-zone contact fee has plummeted from 79.8% to 74.2%, his chase fee has risen from 29.1% to 30.5% — and the gaps are even wider when measured relative to 2022. He’s putting out in 29.9% of his plate appearances, up from 23.4% final yr and 21.7% in 2022. His batted ball stats? All down, from common exit velocity (from 91.3 mph to 89.3) and barrel fee (from 11.9% to 4.4%) to hard-hit fee (from 50.7% to 36.8%), xSLG (from .491 to .376) and xwOBA (from .367 to .315).
This may very well be only a stoop, one which dates again to spring coaching (he went 6-for-47), or it may very well be an indication that age is catching as much as the seven-time All-Star, who will flip 37 on September 10. His efficiency in opposition to four-seam fastballs doesn’t provide a lot consolation. He slipped from a .303 batting common and .559 slugging proportion in opposition to them in 2022 to .241 AVG/.450 SLG final yr, and up to now this yr is at .229 AVG/.400 SLG; in the meantime, his whiff fee in opposition to the pitches has risen from 23.9% in 2022 to 25% final yr to 33.3% this yr. He’s declined in Robert Orr’s SEAGER metric — which grades a participant’s swing choices based mostly on the depend, pitch location, chance of it being a strike, and the injury usually carried out on contact in that location — yearly since 2020, from a rating of 29.5 within the pandemic-shortened season to 17.4 final yr and 14.8 this yr. Digging deeper into SEAGER’s elements, he’s taking extra hittable pitches than earlier than, and swinging at extra unhealthy pitches. That’s not a recipe for fulfillment.
Close to the top of March, Goldschmidt acknowledged that spring coaching “type of uncovered some changes that I wanted to make.” Stated supervisor Oliver Marmol on the time, “He’s working by some stuff mechanically and from a timing standpoint.”
Possibly Goldschmidt is only a tweak or two away from getting his swing again, and possibly his latest video games are a optimistic signal; he’s averaged a 100.7 mph exit velocity with a 72.7% hard-hit fee on his batted balls over his previous 5 video games, and his rolling xwOBA over his previous 25 PA is again above .400, as it’s when he’s going nicely. However, possibly that is the start of the top for him, not less than in St. Louis, as he generally is a free agent on the finish of this season.
Elsewhere, there’s hardly a scarcity of gamers who’re unexpectedly wallowing beneath substitute stage by the season’s first month; with 44 out of 183 batting title qualifiers (24%) having entered Monday at or beneath 0.0 WAR, we’re sure to seek out some stars wandering on the improper facet of the tracks. Holding in thoughts that some key stats like exit velocity, barrel fee, swing fee, and call fee have stabilized (and dealing alphabetically), right here’s a take a look at 4 hitters who notably stand out to those eyes.
Randy Arozarena (47 wRC+, -0.4 WAR)
Arozarena made his first All-Star staff final yr whereas hitting .254/.364/.425 (122 wRC+), however a better look exhibits broad month-to-month swings in his efficiency because the season progressed; he hit for a 36 wRC+ in July (.153/.223/.259), then a 148 wRC+ in August and a 93 wRC+ in September. Within the throes of a 6-for-59 stoop that features hits in back-to-back video games simply as soon as, he’s put up numbers that look loads like final July, batting .152/.226/.257 with three homers however solely two different extra-base hits in 115 PA, each doubles.
Arozarena is swinging and lacking extra usually, with a strikeout fee that’s climbed from 23.9% to 27.8%. He’s reduce his chase fee considerably (from 30% to 25.4%) however he’s making a lot much less contact within the zone (71.7%, down from 78.9%), and he’s been totally overwhelmed by four-seam fastballs, hitting .074 and slugging .296 in opposition to them; his solely hits in opposition to the heater are a pair of taters, offset by 13 strikeouts and a 35.1% whiff fee in 31 PA. For what it’s price, he’s hitting the ball onerous sufficient to have notched a 90.2 mph common exit velocity, however his barrel fee has fallen (from 12.3% to six.8%) and so has his pull fee (from 41% to 34.2%).
On that final matter, Rays hitting coach Chad Mottola believes that Arozarena’s want to make use of the entire area extra usually could also be backfiring, saying final week, “He wished to make use of the precise facet of the sphere somewhat extra usually. It’s most likely added size in his [swing] path. However you must recognize guys making an attempt to get higher and enhance. It’s important to discover, and typically you go down the improper highway.” We’ll need to see if he can refine that strategy extra efficiently, or whether or not reverting to his outdated methods bears extra fruit.
Luis Arraez (107 wRC+, -0.1 WAR)
To be honest, this one may be a little bit of a attain. After profitable batting titles in each leagues in 2022 and ’23 and making All-Star groups in every of these seasons, the 27-year-old Arraez is hitting .305/.359/.364, which is definitely above-average manufacturing, however solely superficially helpful. Although he’s by no means been a participant who hits the ball very onerous, his .059 ISO is the bottom mark of his six-year profession, and he has but to homer. His 85.9 mph common exit velocity and 17.6% hard-hit fee are each profession lows — the latter is the second-lowest amongst qualifiers, forward of solely Steven Kwan — and his 1.9% barrel fee is simply 0.2% forward of his rookie mark. Even provided that he had nice success up to now two seasons with fairly measly Statcast numbers (averaging 88.6 mph, with a 3.5% barrel fee and 27.6% hard-hit fee), that is pushing it.
For as a lot as we ought to be cautious about evaluating offense based mostly on small samples, we ought to be much more so in relation to protection, and but… Arraez’s metrics are so unhealthy that they’re pushing him beneath substitute stage. His -5 DRS and -6 FRV — that’s Statcast’s all-inclusive Fielding Run Worth, together with each vary and arm metrics — each rank because the majors’ worst, dragging his WAR down. His earlier metrics have been a blended bag (7 DRS, however -6 FRV at second over the previous two seasons), so possibly it is a notably untimely analysis, however on a staff that now owns the majors’ lowest profitable proportion (.207, through a 6-23 report) and NL’s lowest scoring fee (3.52 runs per sport), he positive isn’t serving to a lot.
Nick Castellanos (39 wRC+, -1.0 WAR)
Once more? This staple of my annual Alternative Degree Killers record has gotten an early leap on his placement by not solely enjoying horrible protection (we shouldn’t take his -2 DRS and -3 RAA too actually, but it surely actually matches the sample), but in addition having an particularly unhealthy month on the plate. He’s hitting simply .179/.250/.226 and solely has two extra-base hits (a triple and a homer) in 116 PA. His wRC+ is the second lowest amongst all batting title qualifiers, and his WAR is the bottom amongst all place gamers.
Castellanos has at all times been fairly chase-prone, however his 43.3% chase fee is sort of 5 factors above his profession mark, and his 59.4% swing fee is his highest since his 2013 rookie season, 5.6 factors above his profession mark. His 22.4% strikeout fee is a bit beneath his norm, however his contact has been subpar, along with his 86.9 mph common exit velo and three.6% barrel fee each putting within the twenty second percentile. His decline through SEAGER is especially notable; he’s gone from rating sixth within the majors with 25.5 in 2021 (the three.6-WAR, 140 wRC+ season that helped him land a five-year, $100 million contract) to fifteen.4 final yr and 12.9 this yr, which is barely beneath the key league common (13.1) however nicely beneath the place a thumper ought to be. Aside from sinkers and cutters, he’s struggling in opposition to each pitch kind, and in opposition to the whole lot however these two and four-seam fastballs, he’s batting .121 and slugging .172, with a 43.8% whiff fee and a 7.9% — sure, single-digit — hard-hit fee. Eek!
Gleyber Torres (68 wRC+, 0.1 WAR)
With homers in three of his previous 5 video games, every of which included a number of hits, Aaron Choose — whom I checked in on final week — is beginning to come round. The identical could also be true for Torres, who collected 5 hits amid the Yankees’ back-to-back 15-run onslaughts in opposition to the Brewers, and snuck to an eyelash above substitute stage. Coming off a season by which he set a profession excessive with 3.8 WAR whereas placing up his greatest numbers since 2019 by way of wRC+ (123), SLG (.453), and homers (25), he has nonetheless struggled to get out of the gate. Even with the aforementioned mini-outburst, he’s hitting .218/.298/.255; he has but to homer, and has simply three doubles.
A couple of issues stand out about Torres. After slicing his strikeout fee to a career-low 14.6% final yr, he’s as much as 24.8%, his highest mark since his 2018 rookie season; his 10.2-point enhance is the fourth highest amongst gamers with not less than 400 PA final season and 80 up to now this season. He’s one other participant who’s getting overwhelmed by four-seamers, hitting simply .120 and slugging .160 down from .275 AVG/.551 SLG final yr, with a whiff fee that’s spiking from 22.8% to 33.3%. And his .265 xSLG is the bottom of any of the gamers I’ve examined right here. A pending free agent this winter, he’s obtained loads at stake. We’ll see if this previous weekend is the beginning of a optimistic development.
