Since the Kansas City Chiefs’ 40-22 blowout loss to the Philadelphia Eagles in Super Bowl LIX, the broader football discourse around Patrick Mahomes has changed dramatically.
Diehard fans in New England (and Philadelphia) treated Sunday night like a point-made celebration of sorts, declaring the G.O.A.T. (greatest of all time) debate between Mahomes and Tom Brady — the consensus G.O.A.T. — officially settled.
Before I dive into all the reasons why it is certainly not, let’s talk about what’s real.
Yes, Tom Brady is still the greatest football player of all time.
As it stands today, former New England Patriots and Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady is still the greatest player of all time. Patriots fans are correct.
Let’s begin with the obvious: Brady owns seven Super Bowl rings — and in doing so near the end of his career with the Buccaneers, he is the only person on Earth who can claim he has more titles than any NFL franchise. That is mind-boggling, a point that cannot be ignored.
With the seven Super Bowl titles, Brady notched five championship game MVPs. He won three AP NFL MVP awards, was named an All-Pro six times and to the Pro Bowl 15 times.
Early during the 2024 season, current Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield remarked that the environment in Tampa Bay under Brady was “stressful.” Brady addressed that comment on one of his early-season FOX broadcasts — a matchup between the Buccaneers and Eagles.
“I thought stressful was not having Super Bowl rings,” said Brady. “There was a mindset of a champion that I took to work every day. This wasn’t daycare. If I wanted to have fun, I was gonna go to Disneyland with my kids… There’s a way to approach this game… There’s high expectations for us. We have to make sure we go out there and deliver.”
Brady knew how to lead, and he knew how to win — and he did so often.
Yes, Mahomes indeed missed a grand opportunity to take a significant step toward the title on Sunday.
Those who are on the Brady side of the G.O.A.T. debate will often highlight the two postseason matchups between Brady and Mahomes: first, a 37-31 overtime loss for the Chiefs in the 2018 AFC Championship and then the 31-9 drubbing of the Chiefs by the Bucs in Super Bowl LV.
Quick rebuttals include Dee Ford’s alignment and an injured, untenable offensive line, but the result stands true: Brady is 2-0 and Mahomes is 0-2 in head-to-head matchups, forever, as the 47-year-old is now retired and seemingly enjoying his life as a broadcaster-owner hybrid.
Those head-to-head results can’t change, but Sunday’s Super Bowl offered Mahomes a trump card. By winning three championships in a row, he would have accomplished something Brady never could.
In a loss in which Mahomes didn’t play well, that’s off the table for the foreseeable future.
It’s one, single game — but in this particular debate, it’s undoubtedly colossal.
With all that acknowledged… No. The G.O.A.T. debate lives on.
Since 2018
Mahomes famously took over the role of Chiefs’ starter in 2018, giving him seven seasons of work compared to Brady’s 22.
It will no doubt take a few less offseason Coors Lights as he grows older, but Mahomes has said he would like to play as long as Brady did. For argument’s sake, that means he has 15 more seasons by the number of seasons Brady started. If we’re going by Brady’s retirement age (45), he has 16 more seasons.
For now, let’s talk about what Mahomes and the Chiefs have done since his initial year as starter. Since 2018, Kansas City has 107 wins, including the playoffs. The next team is the Buffalo Bills (84) — a difference of 23 games.
Kansas City 107-30 (3 Super Bowl titles, 5 conference championships, 7 conference championship games)
Buffalo 84-44 (0 Super Bowl titles, 0 conference championships, 2 conference championship games)
Baltimore 81-44 (0 Super Bowl titles, 0 conference championships, 1 conference championship game)
Philadelphia 77-50-1 (1 Super Bowl title, 2 conference championships, 2 conference championship games)
Los Angeles Rams 77-51 (1 Super Bowl title, 2 conference championships, 2 conference championship games)
Let’s recount what this means: since Mahomes became the starter, the Chiefs have more Super Bowl titles, more conference championships and the same number of conference championship game appearances as the next four winningest NFL teams combined.
Super Bowl ring pace — and other great quarterbacks
We’ve already mentioned that Brady has seven Super Bowl rings. But… did you know?
Brady did not win his fourth Super Bowl championship until he was 37 (Super Bowl XLIX in February 2015). That gives Mahomes the next eight seasons to match that pace.
Mahomes is now 3-2 in Super Bowls (including three Super Bowl MVPs) and 17-4 in the postseason. Indianapolis Colts and Denver Broncos great Peyton Manning was 2-2 (one Super Bowl MVP) in the Super Bowl and 14-13 in the postseason.
In 2009 and 2010, New Orleans Saints quarterback Drew Brees and then-Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers each won a single Super Bowl and one Super Bowl MVP. Since then, Rodgers has lost four straight conference championship games and is 12-10 in the playoffs. Brees was 9-9 in the playoffs.
Together, Brees and Rodgers are a combined 21-19 for a 53% winning rate. For Mahomes to fall to that percentage, he would have to lose 11 straight playoff games.
Let’s go back to Brady’s fourth Super Bowl title at age 37
As mentioned, Brady won his third Super Bowl title at age 27 when the Patriots beat Andy Reid’s Eagles in Super Bowl XXXIX (2004 season). His next title, at age 37, came as the Patriots defeated the Seattle Seahawks in Super Bowl XLIX (2014 season).
So, what happened in between (especially now, as Mahomes’ career is suddenly being defined by a single poor performance)?
2005 Divisional Round loss: Brady and the Patriots lost to Jake Plummer and the Broncos, 27-13.
2006 AFC Championship: Brady and the Patriots lost to Peyton Manning and the Colts, 38-34, with New England blowing a 21-3 lead. Brady had an interception on what could have been a game-winning drive.
2007 Super Bowl XLII: Brady and the previously-undefeated Patriots lost to Eli Manning and the New York Giants, 17-14.
2008 season: Brady tore his ACL in Week 1.
2009 Wild Card Round: Brady’s three first-quarter turnovers led to a 24-0 lead for Joe Flacco and the Baltimore Ravens in what was a 33-14 final over the Patriots.
2010 Divisional Round: Brady and the Patriots lost to Mark Sanchez and the New York Jets, 28-21.
2011 Super Bowl XLVI: Brady and the Patriots lost to Eli Manning and the Giants, again — this time with a 21-17 final.
2012 AFC Championship: Brady throws two fourth-quarter interceptions as he and the Patriots lose to Ravens and Flacco, again — this time with a 28-13 final.
2013 AFC Championship: Brady and the Patriots lost to Peyton Manning and the Broncos, 26-16.
A loss to Plummer, a loss to Sanchez, two against Eli, two against Flacco — and two against his greatest rival, Peyton. Yes, this stretch means Mahomes has some time on his side.
A return to the accolades and milestones
Brady turned 34 before reaching his fifth Super Bowl and 35 before earning his seventh conference championship appearance. Mahomes hit those numbers at just 29 during the 2024 campaign.
Brady won his second AP NFL MVP at age 33 in his 10th year as a starter. Mahomes won his second AP NFL MVP at age 27 in his fifth year as a starter.
Mahomes among his AFC peers
Even though the Eagles just won the Super Bowl — and kudos to them — it’s fair to say that four of the NFL’s top five quarterbacks are in the AFC: alphabetically, I’m talking about Josh Allen, Joe Burrow, Lamar Jackson and Mahomes.
Mahomes didn’t have the chance to go up against Peyton Manning, so let’s compare him to the current-day AFC rival quarterbacks.
Allen (who began starting the same year as Mahomes) is 7-6 in the postseason. Mahomes has as many conference championship game appearances as Allen has playoff wins, with fewer playoff losses.
Burrow (who began starting two years after Mahomes, to be fair) has five playoff wins (5-2); Mahomes has five conference titles.
Jackson (who began starting midway through the same year as Mahomes) is 3-5 in the playoffs. Mahomes has three Super Bowl championships, the same number of Jackson’s playoff wins (3), and fewer playoff losses (4).
The bottom line
Keep in mind that this piece does not declare that Mahomes is already the greatest quarterback in NFL history. The lopsided Super Bowl defeat has certainly set back that argument — at least in the short term.
After the 2005 season, I’d bet a lot of Patriots fans were saying similar things as Chiefs fans now: “We’ll be back. The Patriots will win a Super Bowl again soon.”
As mentioned, it took a decade.
The key point here is that Mahomes simply had a bad night at the worst time. Declaring the G.O.A.T. debate now finished after one performance isn’t only misguided; it’s flat-out wrong.
He has ground to make up, but let’s see how it all plays out. There’s a lot of history yet to be written.
